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WHAT DRIVES DEMAND? BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST 2012-2031 David Vandenberg Sr. Director, Structured Finance CJI London 2013

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Page 1: WHAT DRIVES DEMAND? BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST ... · New generation aircraft stimulate demand by offering more range, more performance and more features 12 SOURCE: BOMBARDIER

WHAT DRIVES DEMAND?

BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST 2012-2031

David VandenbergSr. Director, Structured FinanceCJI London 2013

Page 2: WHAT DRIVES DEMAND? BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST ... · New generation aircraft stimulate demand by offering more range, more performance and more features 12 SOURCE: BOMBARDIER

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Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry into service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe”, “continue” or “maintain”, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation, refer to the respective Guidance and forward-looking statements sections in Overview, Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier Transportation sections in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) of the Corporation’s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011.

Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and major rail operators), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; to the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources; fixed price commitments and production and project execution), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

CAUTION REGARDING NON-GAAP EARNINGS MEASURESThis presentation is based on reported earnings in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ((IFRS) generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP)). It is also based on EBITDA and Free Cash Flow. These non-GAAP measures are directly derived from the Consolidated Financial Statements, but do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS; therefore, others using these terms may calculate them differently. Management believes that a significant number of the users of its MD&A analyze the Corporation’s results based on these performance measures and that this presentation is consistent with industry practice.

All amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated2

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CURRENT BUSINESS JET MARKET OVERVIEW

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-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Estimated Industry Net Orders, units, 2003 to 2012(all OEMs)

Industry orders over the last ten years

SOURCE: BOMBARDIER ESTIMATES; EXCLUDES VLJ AND LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERS

Orders grew by almost 25% YOY in 2012 driven by large orders from fractional and branded charter operators

4

+25%

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SOURCE: GAMA; EXCLUDES VLJ & LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERS

Light Category Deliveries

Medium Category Deliveries

Large Category Deliveries

114116

189208212

306

-2%

2012 YTD

2011 YTD

2011201020092008

9289

129142

124120 +3%

2012 YTD

2011 YTD

2011201020092008

358350

563544574

927

+2%

2012 YTD2011 YTD2011201020092008

Industry Deliveries, units, 2008 to Q3 2012(all OEMs)

152145

245194

238

501

+5%

2012 YTD

2011 YTD

2011201020092008

Industry deliveries in the first three quarters of 2012 were up slightly versus same period last year

Industry unit deliveries at the end of Q3 2012

5

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Bombardier segments the business jet market based on price and aircraft performance

Light SuperLight Entry Midsize Midsize Super Midsize Large Super Large Entry Long

RangeUltra Long

RangeExtra Long

Range

L40XR L45XR L60XR L85 CL-300 CL-605 G5000 G6000 Global 7000

L70 L75 CL-850 Global 8000

Mustang CJ2+ CJ4 XLS+ Latitude Sovereign Citation X Longitude

M2 CJ3 New Citation Sovereign

New Citation X

F2000S F2000LX F900LX F7X

F2000LXS

Phenom 100 Phenom 300 Legacy 450 Legacy 500 Legacy 600 Lineage 1000

Legacy 650

G150 G280 G450 G500 G550 G650

Hawker Beechcraft Premier 1A H900XP H4000

Hondajet ACJ 318/319

Eclipse 550 SJ30-2 BBJ 1/2/3BBJ 737 Max

In Prod35

In Dev 17

VERY LIGHTLIGHT MEDIUM LARGE LARGE

CORPORATE AIRLINERS

Bombardier

Cessna

Dassault

Embraer

Gulfstream

Others

SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT

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WHAT DRIVES DEMAND?

BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST 2012-2031

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What drives business aircraft demand?

8

Long-term Business Aircraft Key Market Drivers

The long-term business aircraft drivers remain solid

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Wealth creation20-Year GDP Growth Projections

SOURCE: IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, FEBRUARY 20129

Wealth Creation

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Penetration of Business Aircraft 2011 vs. 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

47

30

Russia & CIS

32

2

Africa

26

20

Middle-East

21

13

Europe

12

7

9

3

Asia & Oceania

5

3

China

5

2

Pene

tratio

n in

dex

(Fle

et p

er $

100B

US)

LeadingMarket

LabelNorth America

67

60

Latin America

India

20022011

10 DATA EXCLUDES VERY LIGHT JETS AND LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERSSOURCE: ASCEND, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, 2005 CONSTANT DOLLARS

Business aviation has significant future growth potential

Penetration index represents the number of business aircraft per $100B US GDP

Emerging Mkts

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Significant fleet additions in high growth economies expected

Distribution of World Fleet in 2011, units Distribution of World Fleet in 2031F, units% %

SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-203111

970

1,170

1,420

1,470

1,800

2,605

3,135

5,125

13,750

Africa

Asia Pacific

India

Middle-East

Russia & CIS

China

Latin America

Europe

North America

115

225

340

375

400

435

1,650

1,890

9,725

India

China

Africa

Asia Pacific

Russia & CIS

Middle-East

Latin America

Europe

North America 64%

12%

11%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

44%

16%

10%

8%

6%

5%

5%

4%

3%

Total Fleet Size 15,200 Total Fleet Size 31,500

CAGR: 2%

CAGR: 5%

CAGR: 3%

CAGR: 13%

CAGR: 8%

CAGR: 6%

CAGR: 13%

CAGR: 6%

CAGR: 5%

Emerging Mkts

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New generation aircraft stimulate demand by offering more range, more performance and more features

SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-203112

Bombardier is investing for the future; 5 aircraft programs in development

2012-2017 Aircraft Programs In Development

IN SERVICE

New Products

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Retirements will accelerate in the future due to environmental concerns and airspace modernization

13

Retirements will accelerate in the future due to environmental concerns, new regulations and airspace modernization

4,600

3,100

Fleet 2031

31,500

RetirementsDeliveries

14,200

Fleet 2021

21,900

RetirementsDeliveries

9,800

Fleet 2011

15,200

2011-2031 Business Aircraft Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements

SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-2031

Retirements

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Technological obsolescence will drive retirements earlier

14

Retirements

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Alternatives to conventional aircraft ownership drive down the cost of accessing a business aircraft

15

0 25 100 80020050 400

AC FULL OWNERSHIP (WITHOUT CHARTER REVENUES)

AC FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP

AC FULL OWNERSHIP UNDER AIRCRAFT MANAGEMENT AND CHARTER REVENUES

JET CARD

ON-DEMAND CHARTER Customer flown hours per year

Cap

ital o

utla

y an

d co

mpl

exity

of o

wne

rshi

p

Typical customer selection of business aviation model, per annual utilization

Accessability

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Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031$648 billion over the next 20 years

24232221201918171615141312

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

031302928272625

$117B(18%)

$239B(37%)

$292B(45%)Large

Medium

Light

10,700(45%)

7,800(32%)

5,500(23%)

Total 20Yrs$648B

Total 20Yrs24,000 units

SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-203116

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Q&A?

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