what drives demand? bombardier business aircraft forecast ... · new generation aircraft stimulate...
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WHAT DRIVES DEMAND?
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST 2012-2031
David VandenbergSr. Director, Structured FinanceCJI London 2013
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Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry into service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe”, “continue” or “maintain”, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation, refer to the respective Guidance and forward-looking statements sections in Overview, Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier Transportation sections in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) of the Corporation’s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and major rail operators), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; to the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources; fixed price commitments and production and project execution), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
CAUTION REGARDING NON-GAAP EARNINGS MEASURESThis presentation is based on reported earnings in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ((IFRS) generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP)). It is also based on EBITDA and Free Cash Flow. These non-GAAP measures are directly derived from the Consolidated Financial Statements, but do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS; therefore, others using these terms may calculate them differently. Management believes that a significant number of the users of its MD&A analyze the Corporation’s results based on these performance measures and that this presentation is consistent with industry practice.
All amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated2
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CURRENT BUSINESS JET MARKET OVERVIEW
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-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Estimated Industry Net Orders, units, 2003 to 2012(all OEMs)
Industry orders over the last ten years
SOURCE: BOMBARDIER ESTIMATES; EXCLUDES VLJ AND LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERS
Orders grew by almost 25% YOY in 2012 driven by large orders from fractional and branded charter operators
4
+25%
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SOURCE: GAMA; EXCLUDES VLJ & LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERS
Light Category Deliveries
Medium Category Deliveries
Large Category Deliveries
114116
189208212
306
-2%
2012 YTD
2011 YTD
2011201020092008
9289
129142
124120 +3%
2012 YTD
2011 YTD
2011201020092008
358350
563544574
927
+2%
2012 YTD2011 YTD2011201020092008
Industry Deliveries, units, 2008 to Q3 2012(all OEMs)
152145
245194
238
501
+5%
2012 YTD
2011 YTD
2011201020092008
Industry deliveries in the first three quarters of 2012 were up slightly versus same period last year
Industry unit deliveries at the end of Q3 2012
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Bombardier segments the business jet market based on price and aircraft performance
Light SuperLight Entry Midsize Midsize Super Midsize Large Super Large Entry Long
RangeUltra Long
RangeExtra Long
Range
L40XR L45XR L60XR L85 CL-300 CL-605 G5000 G6000 Global 7000
L70 L75 CL-850 Global 8000
Mustang CJ2+ CJ4 XLS+ Latitude Sovereign Citation X Longitude
M2 CJ3 New Citation Sovereign
New Citation X
F2000S F2000LX F900LX F7X
F2000LXS
Phenom 100 Phenom 300 Legacy 450 Legacy 500 Legacy 600 Lineage 1000
Legacy 650
G150 G280 G450 G500 G550 G650
Hawker Beechcraft Premier 1A H900XP H4000
Hondajet ACJ 318/319
Eclipse 550 SJ30-2 BBJ 1/2/3BBJ 737 Max
In Prod35
In Dev 17
VERY LIGHTLIGHT MEDIUM LARGE LARGE
CORPORATE AIRLINERS
Bombardier
Cessna
Dassault
Embraer
Gulfstream
Others
SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT
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All
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WHAT DRIVES DEMAND?
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT FORECAST 2012-2031
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What drives business aircraft demand?
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Long-term Business Aircraft Key Market Drivers
The long-term business aircraft drivers remain solid
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Wealth creation20-Year GDP Growth Projections
SOURCE: IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, FEBRUARY 20129
Wealth Creation
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Penetration of Business Aircraft 2011 vs. 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
47
30
Russia & CIS
32
2
Africa
26
20
Middle-East
21
13
Europe
12
7
9
3
Asia & Oceania
5
3
China
5
2
Pene
tratio
n in
dex
(Fle
et p
er $
100B
US)
LeadingMarket
LabelNorth America
67
60
Latin America
India
20022011
10 DATA EXCLUDES VERY LIGHT JETS AND LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERSSOURCE: ASCEND, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT, 2005 CONSTANT DOLLARS
Business aviation has significant future growth potential
Penetration index represents the number of business aircraft per $100B US GDP
Emerging Mkts
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Significant fleet additions in high growth economies expected
Distribution of World Fleet in 2011, units Distribution of World Fleet in 2031F, units% %
SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-203111
970
1,170
1,420
1,470
1,800
2,605
3,135
5,125
13,750
Africa
Asia Pacific
India
Middle-East
Russia & CIS
China
Latin America
Europe
North America
115
225
340
375
400
435
1,650
1,890
9,725
India
China
Africa
Asia Pacific
Russia & CIS
Middle-East
Latin America
Europe
North America 64%
12%
11%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
44%
16%
10%
8%
6%
5%
5%
4%
3%
Total Fleet Size 15,200 Total Fleet Size 31,500
CAGR: 2%
CAGR: 5%
CAGR: 3%
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 8%
CAGR: 6%
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 6%
CAGR: 5%
Emerging Mkts
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New generation aircraft stimulate demand by offering more range, more performance and more features
SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-203112
Bombardier is investing for the future; 5 aircraft programs in development
2012-2017 Aircraft Programs In Development
IN SERVICE
New Products
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Retirements will accelerate in the future due to environmental concerns and airspace modernization
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Retirements will accelerate in the future due to environmental concerns, new regulations and airspace modernization
4,600
3,100
Fleet 2031
31,500
RetirementsDeliveries
14,200
Fleet 2021
21,900
RetirementsDeliveries
9,800
Fleet 2011
15,200
2011-2031 Business Aircraft Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements
SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-2031
Retirements
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Technological obsolescence will drive retirements earlier
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Retirements
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Alternatives to conventional aircraft ownership drive down the cost of accessing a business aircraft
15
0 25 100 80020050 400
AC FULL OWNERSHIP (WITHOUT CHARTER REVENUES)
AC FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP
AC FULL OWNERSHIP UNDER AIRCRAFT MANAGEMENT AND CHARTER REVENUES
JET CARD
ON-DEMAND CHARTER Customer flown hours per year
Cap
ital o
utla
y an
d co
mpl
exity
of o
wne
rshi
p
Typical customer selection of business aviation model, per annual utilization
Accessability
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Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031$648 billion over the next 20 years
24232221201918171615141312
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
031302928272625
$117B(18%)
$239B(37%)
$292B(45%)Large
Medium
Light
10,700(45%)
7,800(32%)
5,500(23%)
Total 20Yrs$648B
Total 20Yrs24,000 units
SOURCE: BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2012-203116
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Q&A?
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