what economists are learning from chess€¦ · e.g.‘kids who learn chess are more...
TRANSCRIPT
What Economists Are Learning From Chess
David [email protected]
London Chess Conference, December 2018
December 6, 2018 0 / 23
Outline
1 Motivation
2 Economics In Two Minutes
3 Case Study: Gender and competitiveness
4 The Future: Why economists and chess educators should worktogether
December 6, 2018 1 / 23
Motivation
Girls’ chess is booming in Kenya
...So why do they drop out after high school?
December 6, 2018 2 / 23
A Global PuzzleRatings data suggests this is a global issue.
(Source: de Sousa & Hollard, 2018)December 6, 2018 3 / 23
Why Could This Be?
A possible explanation: Family duties. But this is not the whole story...
What about Competitiveness?
Nature: Males are biologically more competitive
Nurture: Girls are discouraged from competing, and/or learn todislike competition
Interesting and important question for chess educators andpolicy-makers. But why would economists care?
December 6, 2018 4 / 23
Interlude: Economics in 2 Minutes
December 6, 2018 5 / 23
Interlude: Economics in 2 Minutes
December 6, 2018 5 / 23
Macroeconomics:
Primarily concerned with National Economies
Topics:
Output (GDP)
Inflation
Unemployment
Terms like:
Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, International Trade,Central Banks, Keynesian, Classical/Free Markets, ‘Chicago School’,Quantitative Easing, Business Cycles, Recessions. . .
December 6, 2018 6 / 23
Macroeconomics:
Primarily concerned with National Economies
Topics:
Output (GDP)
Inflation
Unemployment
Terms like: Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, International Trade,Central Banks, Keynesian, Classical/Free Markets, ‘Chicago School’,Quantitative Easing, Business Cycles, Recessions. . .
December 6, 2018 6 / 23
Microeconomics:
→ Most economists work here!
Primarily concerned with individuals, and in particular:
How do people make decisions to do the best they can with theirlimited resources?
For example:
Should I work more hours, or less?
Should I go to university or study a trade?
Should I take the bus to work today?
Should we have a(nother) baby?
Should I get private health insurance?
I have $50 for the supermarket. What should I buy?
December 6, 2018 7 / 23
Microeconomics:
→ Most economists work here!
Primarily concerned with individuals, and in particular:
How do people make decisions to do the best they can with theirlimited resources?
For example:
Should I work more hours, or less?
Should I go to university or study a trade?
Should I take the bus to work today?
Should we have a(nother) baby?
Should I get private health insurance?
I have $50 for the supermarket. What should I buy?
December 6, 2018 7 / 23
Microeconomics: Some popular fields
Behavioural economics (psychology)
Game theory (Strategic interactions)
Labour economics
Health economics
Education economics
Development economics (topics in developing countries, e.g.poverty)
Environmental economics (e.g. climate change)
In particular with Applied microeconometrics, economists are veryconcerned with identifying causality, not correlation or ‘somethingelse’.
E.g. ‘Kids who learn chess are more intelligent’ versus ‘Learning chessmakes kids more intelligent’.
December 6, 2018 8 / 23
Microeconomics: Some popular fields
Behavioural economics (psychology)
Game theory (Strategic interactions)
Labour economics
Applied microeconometrics (‘Does X cause Y?’)
In particular with Applied microeconometrics, economists are veryconcerned with identifying causality, not correlation or ‘somethingelse’.
E.g. ‘Kids who learn chess are more intelligent’ versus ‘Learning chessmakes kids more intelligent’.
December 6, 2018 8 / 23
Case Study: Gender and Competitiveness
This is a very important topic in economics.
It is at the heart of important policy questions such as:
Should we have affirmative action entrance policies or quotas foruniversities and the workplace?
How do we encourage more women to enter and stay in theworkforce?
What are the effects of changing maternity laws?
Why are girls dropping out of STEM fields after secondary school?
What would happen if we had more female politicians?
December 6, 2018 9 / 23
Case Study: Gender and Competitiveness
This is a very important topic in economics.
It is at the heart of important policy questions such as:
Should we have affirmative action entrance policies or quotas foruniversities and the workplace?
How do we encourage more women to enter and stay in theworkforce?
What are the effects of changing maternity laws?
Why are girls dropping out of STEM fields after secondary school?
What would happen if we had more female politicians?
December 6, 2018 9 / 23
Economics Experiments
Women are more competitive in matriarchal societies (evidence fornurture?)
Women are less likely to apply for leadership positions in anenvironment with a high male/female ratio
Women perform worse in cognitive tasks when told it is amale-favouring skill (stereotype threat)
Female tennis players commit more unforced errors on big pointsthan males
Experiments can shed some light on the mechanisms, but are theresults externally valid?
→ A lack of good, ‘natural’ field data.
December 6, 2018 10 / 23
The Difficulties of Gender Research
Three main challenges to empirical analysis:
Problem 1: Hard to find good quality data forgender/competition situations
Problem 2: Hard to rule out ‘selection’: the idea that differenttypes of men/women choose which job, university course etc. toundertake
Problem 3: Hard to measure innate ability in the data
December 6, 2018 11 / 23
Why Chess Data?
Very high quality chess data (‘panel’ tracks individuals over a longperiod of time; structured and organised)
A competitive, cognitive domain
Males and females compete against each other (rare in sports data)
Performance is exclusively due to effort and abilityI We can use ELO ratings!
Global sample can break up players by types of countries,expertise, age, gender etc.
Pairings in chess tournaments are ‘exogenous’ (i.e. outside of thecontrol of the players)
I This helps rule out ‘selection effects’
December 6, 2018 12 / 23
Gender, Competition and Chess
Three recent papers:
Backus, Cubel, Guid, Sanchez-Pages & Manas (2018, submitted):
Gender, Competition and Performance: Evidence From RealTournaments
Stafford (2018, Psychological Science):
Female Chess Players Outperform Expectations When Playing Men
de Sousa & Hollard (2018, submitted):
Gender Differences: Evidence from Field Tournaments
More details
December 6, 2018 13 / 23
Gender, Competition and Chess
Three recent papers:
Backus, Cubel, Guid, Sanchez-Pages & Manas (2018, submitted):
Gender, Competition and Performance: Evidence From RealTournaments
Stafford (2018, Psychological Science):
Female Chess Players Outperform Expectations When Playing Men
de Sousa & Hollard (2018, submitted):
Gender Differences: Evidence from Field Tournaments
More details
December 6, 2018 13 / 23
Sources of Data
FIDE ratings data (Stafford, 2018)
I ‘92 month’ dataset has 10 million gamesI Need to petition FIDE for access
Chess databases (Megabase, TWIC) with within-game evaluationdata (Backus et al., 2018; Guid & Bratko, 2011)
I 40 moves per game gives hundreds of millions of observationsI Requires someone with technical/computing skills
Online databases: lichess.org
I Massive database (half a billion games) for free!I Limited biographical data of players
December 6, 2018 14 / 23
Sources of Data
FIDE ratings data (Stafford, 2018)I ‘92 month’ dataset has 10 million gamesI Need to petition FIDE for access
Chess databases (Megabase, TWIC) with within-game evaluationdata (Backus et al., 2018; Guid & Bratko, 2011)
I 40 moves per game gives hundreds of millions of observationsI Requires someone with technical/computing skills
Online databases: lichess.orgI Massive database (half a billion games) for free!I Limited biographical data of players
December 6, 2018 14 / 23
The Future: Why economists and chess industryshould work together
December 6, 2018 15 / 23
The Economic Way of Thinking:
1 Develop theoretical models of behaviour, and especially modellingwhich mechanisms affect how people make choices and react tochanges
I Which mechanisms of chess education are most beneficial? Forwhich outcomes? And for which types of children?
2 Apply sophisticated statistical techniques to real data in order totest the predictions and forecast changes
I Do female quotas in chess leagues boost women’s participation andperformance?
3 Use to results to propose improvements to policies and practices
I Designing scalable interventions with randomised controlledtrials (RCTs).
December 6, 2018 16 / 23
The Economic Way of Thinking:
1 Develop theoretical models of behaviour, and especially modellingwhich mechanisms affect how people make choices and react tochanges
I Which mechanisms of chess education are most beneficial? Forwhich outcomes? And for which types of children?
2 Apply sophisticated statistical techniques to real data in order totest the predictions and forecast changes
I Do female quotas in chess leagues boost women’s participation andperformance?
3 Use to results to propose improvements to policies and practicesI Designing scalable interventions with randomised controlled
trials (RCTs).
December 6, 2018 16 / 23
RCTs
These days, economists love RCTs, especially when they cananswer an empirically challenging and policy-relevant question
To run an RCT, the researcher needs at a minimum:
1 An intervention2 A randomised treatment group and control group (Can be a
delayed treatment group!)3 Good measures of outcomes4 Baseline (pre-intervention) data and exit (post-intervention) data
F Surveys are good; standardised administrative data are even better!
RCTs are great ways for researchers and chess industry to partner
December 6, 2018 17 / 23
RCTs
These days, economists love RCTs, especially when they cananswer an empirically challenging and policy-relevant question
To run an RCT, the researcher needs at a minimum:
1 An intervention2 A randomised treatment group and control group (Can be a
delayed treatment group!)3 Good measures of outcomes4 Baseline (pre-intervention) data and exit (post-intervention) data
F Surveys are good; standardised administrative data are even better!
RCTs are great ways for researchers and chess industry to partner
December 6, 2018 17 / 23
RCTs
These days, economists love RCTs, especially when they cananswer an empirically challenging and policy-relevant question
To run an RCT, the researcher needs at a minimum:
1 An intervention2 A randomised treatment group and control group (Can be a
delayed treatment group!)3 Good measures of outcomes4 Baseline (pre-intervention) data and exit (post-intervention) data
F Surveys are good; standardised administrative data are even better!
RCTs are great ways for researchers and chess industry to partner
December 6, 2018 17 / 23
Tips For Working With Applied Economists
Be very clear about making your objectives and expectationsknown at the start
Be flexible to changing minor programme details (‘treatments’) toaccommodate their research question
Be prepared for strange requests! Methodology can be complex
Understand that they will always want a bigger sample
Let the researchers know what are your delivery ‘levers’ (i.e.mechanisms) that won’t affect your overall programme (as well asthose that will!)
Be open-minded to their data-driven findings. They can besurprising and helpful to improving your programme. Ask themhow!
December 6, 2018 18 / 23
Tips For Working With Industry
Be very clear about making your objectives and expectationsknown at the start
Don’t over-promise. Be realistic in terms of what you can answer,but do be salient to cost/benefits in framing your discussions
Be flexible in responding to commercial interests/demands withoutcompromising your research agenda
Think about publishing early: Set goals, communicate them, andstick to them. However. . .
. . . Be prepared to continue your partnership beyond youracademic objectives, with non-academic outputs
Be open-minded to their experience and anecdotal insights. Theycan be invaluable to improving your research and generating newideas. Ask them how!
December 6, 2018 19 / 23
Symbiosis
Benefits for the ResearchersIdeal testing environment for competition, gender, skill mobility etc.
Excellent data (also secondary data)
Benefits for the EducatorsQuality impact evaluation from scientific research boosts validity, profile
Gain insights into mechanisms beyond the holistic benefits of the wholeprogramme
I Understanding the education ‘production function’ can boost profits
Benefits to BothJoint profile offers increased chances to attract funding
Many research Qs don’t require tangible changes/compromises toprogramme delivery
Partnerships strengthen link between research and practice.
December 6, 2018 20 / 23
Symbiosis
Benefits for the ResearchersIdeal testing environment for competition, gender, skill mobility etc.
Excellent data (also secondary data)
Benefits for the EducatorsQuality impact evaluation from scientific research boosts validity, profile
Gain insights into mechanisms beyond the holistic benefits of the wholeprogramme
I Understanding the education ‘production function’ can boost profits
Benefits to BothJoint profile offers increased chances to attract funding
Many research Qs don’t require tangible changes/compromises toprogramme delivery
Partnerships strengthen link between research and practice.
December 6, 2018 20 / 23
Symbiosis
Benefits for the ResearchersIdeal testing environment for competition, gender, skill mobility etc.
Excellent data (also secondary data)
Benefits for the EducatorsQuality impact evaluation from scientific research boosts validity, profile
Gain insights into mechanisms beyond the holistic benefits of the wholeprogramme
I Understanding the education ‘production function’ can boost profits
Benefits to BothJoint profile offers increased chances to attract funding
Many research Qs don’t require tangible changes/compromises toprogramme delivery
Partnerships strengthen link between research and practice.
December 6, 2018 20 / 23
Symbiosis
Benefits for the ResearchersIdeal testing environment for competition, gender, skill mobility etc.
Excellent data (also secondary data)
Benefits for the EducatorsQuality impact evaluation from scientific research boosts validity, profile
Gain insights into mechanisms beyond the holistic benefits of the wholeprogramme
I Understanding the education ‘production function’ can boost profits
Benefits to BothJoint profile offers increased chances to attract funding
Many research Qs don’t require tangible changes/compromises toprogramme delivery
Partnerships strengthen link between research and practice.
December 6, 2018 20 / 23
Finally: Some (academic) ideas
How do gender quotas affect participation and performance ofgirls?
What is the effect of online education innovation on genderparticipation rates?
How do peer effects influence the gender gap in competitiveness?
How do cognitive games affect children’s aspirations and goals indeveloping countries?
Which mechanisms of chess education are most important forcognitive and non-cognitive skill development?
What are the effects of chess on entrepreneurial skills?
And one more...
Does gender equality in a country affect the chess genderparticipation ratio?
(Ideas)
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Thank you.
dsmerdon.wordpress.com
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Appendix 1: Gender and Competitiveness Chess Papers
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Gender, Competition and Chess
Three recent papers:
Backus, Cubel, Guid, Sanchez-Pages & Manas (2018, submitted):
Gender, Competition and Performance: Evidence From RealTournaments
Stafford (2018, Psychological Science):
Female Chess Players Outperform Expectations When Playing Men
de Sousa & Hollard (2018, submitted):
Gender Differences: Evidence from Field Tournaments
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Gender, Competition and Chess
Three recent papers:
Backus, Cubel, Guid, Sanchez-Pages & Manas (2018, submitted):
Gender, Competition and Performance: Evidence From RealTournaments
Stafford (2018, Psychological Science):
Female Chess Players Outperform Expectations When Playing Men
de Sousa & Hollard (2018, submitted):
Gender Differences: Evidence from Field Tournaments
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Backus et al. (2018) Women suffer a cognitive ‘stereotype threat’when paired with a man. Men become more competitivewhen paired with a woman.
Stafford (2018) Men suffer a cognitive ‘stereotype threat’ when pairedwith a woman. Women have more experience in FMgames than men (compare with: ‘Southpaw’ boxer effect)
de Sousa & Hollard, 2018 Women suffer when competing against men.Women who are the most sensitive to the gendercompetition effect stop competing and drop out.
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Backus et al., 2018
Data The Week In Chess games from 2012-13.ELO over 2000; Active; Played with both genders(N = 30, 000).Broken into three subsamples: MM (male vs male games),MF and FF
Method Innovative feature is quality of play measure, taken fromthe evaluation error of the played move to the engine’sbest move
Results Women play worse when they play against menMen play the same against either gender (controlling forELO)
Explanations Women suffer a cognitive ‘stereotype threat’ when pairedwith a man.Men become more competitive when paired with awoman.
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Stafford, 2018
Data All FIDE-rated games from 2008-2015.All active players, all ratings (over 5 million games!).Broken into MM, MF and FF
Method Focus on expected performance
Results Women perform BETTER when they play against men!Men perform WORSE against women
Explanations Men suffer a cognitive ‘stereotype threat’ when pairedwith a woman.Women have more experience in FM games than men(compare with: ‘Southpaw’ boxer effect)
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Appendix 2: Gender Ratios By Country
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
How would you expect the chess participation ratio between male andfemale players to be in these countries:
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
England
Germany
Ecuador
China
United Arab Emirates
Sri Lanka
Georgia
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
By gender equality score:
Norway
Germany
Sweden
Denmark
England
UAE
Georgia
Sri Lanka
China
Ecuador
December 6, 2018 21 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
December 6, 2018 22 / 23
Which Countries Have High Ratios?
By gender equality score:
Norway
Germany
Sweden
Denmark
England
UAE
Georgia
Sri Lanka
China
Ecuador
By chess gender ratio:
China
Georgia
UAE
Sri Lanka
Ecuador
Germany
England
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Back
December 6, 2018 23 / 23