what is happening in china on climate change?
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International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9, 2006, Sao Paulo, Brazil. What Is Happening in China on Climate Change?. LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team. Outline. China’s Present Situation Policies and Actions in China Building Together for Another Future. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
What Is Happening in China on Climate Change?
LI Liyan and LU Xuedu
BASIC China Team
International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy
August 6-9, 2006, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Outline
China’s Present Situation
Policies and Actions in China
Building Together for Another Future
(中国气象局国家气候中心)
Temperature increase observed with past half century in most areas, particularly in northern China
Changes of Annual Average Temperature in China (1951-2001)
Source: CMA, 2005
Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change
(中国气象局国家气候中心)
Precipitation increased in southern and western China but decreased in most areas in north and north-east of China
Changes of Annual precipitation in China (1956-2002)
Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change
Source: CMA, 2005
Selected Indicators Related to Climate Change Mitigation (2004)
Population 1297 million
Population below poverty standard* ~30 million
GDP (current US$) $1649 billion
GDP per capita (current US$) $1272
Annual GDP growth 10.1%
Energy consumption 2032 Mtce
Energy consumption per capita 1.56 tce
Energy mix Coal 67.7%, Oil 22.7%Gas 2.6%, others 7.0%
Energy related CO2 emissions (2002) 1032MtC
CO2 Emissions per capita (2002) 0.8tC
CO2 emissions per GDP (2002) 0.75kgC/$
Source: WB, China Statistic Yearbook, WRI-CAIT
Share of Global Energy CO2 Emissions (2002)
US, 23.32%
China, 15.28%EU15, 13.37%
Russia, 6.20%
Japan, 4.90%
India, 4.49%
Canada, 2.09%Others, 30.35%
Source: WRI-CAIT
Distribution of GHG Emissions from China in 2000
N2O,13.00%
CH4,15.70%
HFC,0.70%
PFC,0.10%
SF4,0.10%
CO2
70.30%
Agriculture21.20%
Waste,2.40%
IndustrialProcess,7.80%
CO2
70.30%
GHGEnergy Sector
Source: WRI-CAIT
Projected Energy Demand to 2020, 2030, 2050
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ener
gy D
eman
d in
Chi
na M
tce
Zhou 2020 DRC 2020Zhi dong Li 2030 Xi ul i an Hu 2050
2225
1386
Rapid industrialization and urbanization are the key drivers of emissions growth
Source: CASS, 2006
CDM Engagementregistered project by host party
2. Policy and Actions
The first National Communication (NC) including country GHG inventories 1994 has submitted.
China is applying GEF for financial support to formulate its second NC.
National climate change strategy are under formulation and will be issued for implementation soon.
Sustainable development policies and measures that are in line with climate change convention goals are taken as the national development strategy.
20% Energy Intensity Reduction Target
In 1980 prices
Ener
gy I
nten
sity
2. 0
4. 0
6. 0
8. 0
10. 0
12. 0
14. 0
Year
t/10000yuan
(1980 price)
For the first time, controlling CO2 emissions is specified as one of the goals for the country over the next 5 years.
the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010)
Source: CASS, 2006
National Objectives for Energy Diversification by 2020
Renewable Energy
• 11th Five-year Plan: 30 large scale wind farms with the capacity of 100Mw; Grid-connected wind and biomass will reach 5 Gw and 5.5 Gw respectively.
• Medium and Long term National Planning of Renewable Development: renewable energy supply 400-500 Mtce, about 1/7 of primary energy consumption, installation capacity of renewable energy30% of the total generation capacity.
Wind power: Over 60 wind farm in 15 provinces, installed capacity 504MW in 2005
Deployment of Renewables Energy
Solar thermal: Production capacity 15 million m2, annual increase rate 28%
Solar PV: Installed capacity over 70 MW, annual market growth 20%
Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005, specific measures including financial and economic incentives are under consideration
Small hydropower: over 60,000 stations of installed capacity 50GW in rural area
Biomass: 17 million household biogas digesters, over 1,600 industrial-scale biogas plants, two ethanol fuel production bases, about 500,000 tons bio-oils produced, biomass power installed capacity 2,000 MW
National Objectives for Energy Diversification by 2020
Nuclear power
• capacity installation for operation 40 GW, 4% of total generation capacity, 6% of total electricity production
Natural gas
• With optimistic estimates, production will increase from 39 billion m3 in 2004 to 200 billion m3 in 2020.
Da Ya Wan nuclear power station in Guangdong
Talimu gas field in Xinjiang
National CDM Fund -the First Carbon-driven Fund in China
Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects, particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged;
Objectives: helping national wide actions to address climate change including,Research and training for capacity buildingMitigation & adaptation activitiesFacilitating preparation of CDM projectOther climate change related activities
3. Building together for Prosperous Future
The Government of China has stressed: “scientific
development focusing on human-centered, comprehensive,
coordinated and sustainable development, to promote the
integrated development of economy, society and humanity”.
Weather and climate affect every aspect of people’s lives and
wellbeing, and strongly affect our ability to achieve national
sustainable development goals and policies (economic, social
and environmental).
Mainstreaming climate change policy into sustainable
development strategy
International Cooperation
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and
Climate (AP6)• 6 members: US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China and India• 8 public-private sector taskforces: to prepare a work plan and
identify flagship projects• Funding announced: Australia A$100m over 5 years, US US$52m
for 2007
G8 + 5 China-EU Other bilateral and multilateral mechanisms (China-
Canada, China-Japan, China-Brazil, China-India, China-Australia, China-USA, ……)
Climate Change Mitigation Potential Projected GDP energy intensity in China, 2000-2050
0. 00
0. 50
1. 00
1. 50
2. 00
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050(tce
/100
00 y
uan
RMB)
Energy i ntensi t y/ GDP(BAU)Energy i ntensi t y/ GDP ( TAP)
Energy demand will be reduced by 27% (1708Mtce) in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China.
CO2 Emission in China,2050
0500
100015002000250030003500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(Mt-
C)
CO2 emi ssi on( BAU) CO2 emi ssi on( TAP)CO2 emission will be reduced by 39% (1263Mt-C)in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China
39%
Source: ERI, 2005
NGOs promote 26 Energy Saving Action for Air Conditioner every summer℃
Engagement of Social ActorsGovernment
Civil society (NGOs, Scientific
communities, etc.)
Business
CC &SD
Costs
Regulation
New business
Reputation
Competitiveness
of Company
waste FoodOne-off consumables
in hotel
over-packed moon cake
3R (Reduction, Reuse and Recycling) to build a more resources efficient and environmental friendly society
Individuals also have a role to play
China’ Position Towards a post-2012 Regime
Following the principle of Common but differentiated responsibilities
Addressing Climate change under the framework of sustainable development
Taking Technology transfer and cooperation as a key to address climate change
Paying equal attention to mitigation and adaptation Intensifying international cooperation
China is towards achieving sustainable future with the world.