what is the greenhouse effect - matthew best · web viewthe summer of ’91 was one of the...

Kyoto Protocol

The Controlling Kyoto Protocol, Technology and the United States

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

The summer of ’91 was one of the hottest and driest months that I can

remember. I found a summer job working for my uncle Dennis. He owned

a local greenhouse near my hometown. It was a nice two mile bike ride

there, and a tiring two mile bike ride back home. The hardest task was

pulling weeds within a section of the greenhouse that had no ventilation.

The sun was beating down through the glass windows, and the heat had

no way to escape. I was standing still, but was sweating profusely. I

finally decided to take a break every ten minutes to recover from the

intense heat.

Years later, my science teacher explained to me the term “greenhouse

effect”. When the sun’s heat gets trapped inside the Earths atmosphere, it

increases temperature. The earth’s atmosphere naturally keeps the earth

30 degrees warmer.1 This natural process is helpful in sustaining life on

our planet. Air pollution from cars, manufacturing, and power plants emit

large amounts of greenhouse gases every day. These greenhouse gases

make the atmosphere denser. This is similar to thicker glass in a

greenhouse. The thicker barrier traps more heat inside our atmosphere.

Most every person who drives a vehicle in the warm summer

experiences the greenhouse effect. When a car is parked outside in the

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noon sun it becomes very hot. This is a small form of the greenhouse

effect.

What is the Problem?

Professor of Columbia University, Dr. Klaus Lackner2 does a wonderful job

describing the environmental problem.

“Before the industrial revolution the atmosphere had 280

parts per million of carbon dioxide. Today, the earths

atmosphere has 370 parts per million. The difference is

accounted to fossil fuels consumed over the last 200

years. The world is consuming 6 billion tons of carbon

in the form of oil, coal, and gas every year. In return

the world is emitting 22 billion tons of carbon every year. In perspective,

the entire world of trees emits 600 billion tons of carbon. In the course of

a hundred years we are emitting as much carbon as all the trees in the

world.”3

The trouble is emissions of carbon are increasing around the world.

Developing countries such as communist China have placed incentives on

their people to move east where growing free economic zones are

located. The strategy is to shift people from the unproductive western

country side, to industrialized employment in the east. The overall goal is

to move 400 million people into eastern cities in the next 25 years.4 This

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Dr. Klaus Lackner

http://www.columbia.edu/dlc/dkv/earth_institute/lackner_ISDN.mov

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type of shift involves increased housing, roads, schools, railways, sewage

systems, power plants, and many other items that involve infrastructure.

China is projected to have the largest increase of greenhouse emissions

in the next decade. The potential for growth is enormous.5

What is the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol imposes legally binding limits on greenhouse

emissions from developed countries. The protocol does not include the

largest developing countries such as India, China, and Mexico. The first

implementation period is from 2008 to 2012. The U.S. would be required

to cut seven percent of its emissions within the 4 years period.

Furthermore, one third of greenhouse emissions would need to be

eliminated in 15 years. According to expert research, the Kyoto Protocol

will cost the United States $2,000 per household. Gasoline prices will rise

fifty cents per gallon, and home heating costs will increase seventy

percent.6 The annual cost is projected to be between $77 billion and $338

billion7, and decrease the U.S. GDP by two percent annually.8

Government controls is in the same philosophy as “Theory X.” The

theory assumes that people must be coerced and controlled. The free

market system is more like “theory Y”. This theory believes the people

want to solve the problem with the proper motivation. These two

philosophies are the main ideas in management, politics, and economics.

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The world leaders have a habit of believing in “theory X”. The Kyoto

Protocol is a great example of “theory x” and “government control”.9

The Timeline of “Greenhouse”

In 1958, U.S. scientist Charles David Keeling was the first to detect the

rise in carbon dioxide within our atmosphere.

In the 1970’s European and U.S. scientists identified other Hazardous Air

Pollutants (HAP). These gases were identified as chlorofluorocarbons,

methane and nitrous oxide. These HAP’s were identified as contributors

to the global greenhouse effect. However, in 1979 the U.S. National

Academy of Science linked the greenhouse effect to climate change.

1 University of Rice Website: Greenhouse Effect Animation. (February 15, 2002) Retrieved July 21, 2005, from: http://earth.rice.edu/MTPE/atmo/atmosphere/hot/anom_99/Greenhouse_Effect.mov

2 Lackner, K. The Earth Engineering Center of Columbia UniversityRetrieved July 21, 2005, from: http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/lacknerCV.html

5 WikiPedia.org, The Free Encyclopedia. (2005). Kyoto Protocol, Position of the United States.Retrieved: July 22, 2005, from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

6 Adler, J. (August 17, 1998) Hot Air: Global Warming is not a Threat to Health or the Economy.National Review – Cover Story. Retrieved: July 22, 2005.

7 Global Climate Coalition (2000). Climate Economics, EIA Study Says Higher Energy Prices Will Be Result of U.S. Meeting Targets. Retrieved: July 23, 2005, from http://www.globalclimate.org/climecon/econimpact.htm

8 Michaels, P. (May 7, 1998) Policy Analysis #307, The Consequences of Kyoto. CATO Institute. Retrieved: July 30, 2005 from: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-307es.html

9 Drucker, P. (October 5, 1998) Management’s New Paradigms, Forbes, pp.152-176Retrieved: July 28, 2005.

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http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-307es.html

http://www.globalclimate.org/climecon/econimpact.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

http://www.seas.columbia.edu/earth/lacknerCV.html

http://earth.rice.edu/MTPE/atmo/atmosphere/hot/anom_99/Greenhouse_Effect.mov

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By 1988, the United Nations formed the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC). In 1992, a UN Summit on climate change in Rio

called for voluntary cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. President Bush Sr.

did not agree with the proposal and refused to sign. The world media and

leaders were quite agitated by the refusal, since the United States was the

worst offender of greenhouse gas emissions. This was mostly likely

viewed as American arrogance.

In 1997, the same countries met in Kyoto, Japan. Along with President

Clinton, the countries signed framework called the Kyoto Protocol. Many

experts felt Clinton signed the measure knowing Congress would not

support the Kyoto Protocol.10 This way Clinton would not be blamed for

opposing the popular measure supported by his left wing supporters.

When the bill arrived in the U.S. Congress it was defeated 95 to zero!

Indeed, the Kyoto Protocol had no U.S. support from either conservatives

or liberals.

The Bush Administration Position

By the first quarter of 2001, President George W. Bush had taken the

oath of office. Within two months, four Senators wrote the president about

his future energy policy, and the Kyoto Protocol. A week later President

10 iafrica.com. (2004, November 22) The Kyoto Protocol: A Timeline. Cool ScienceRetrieved: July 25, 2005. from http://cooltech.iafrica.com/science/392582.htm

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http://cooltech.iafrica.com/science/392582.htm

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Bush replied, and outlined the following reasons why he opposed the

Kyoto Protocol:11

1. The protocol exempted 80 percent of the world, including

China, India, and at the time Russia.

2. The plan would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy.

3. He disagreed with the government imposed quotas.

4. The Senate vote of 95 to 0, opposing the Protocol.

These four factors proved to the Bush administration that Kyoto was

unfair to U.S. interests. The President concluded that the effective way to

solve the environmental problems were through science, technology,

innovation, and market incentives. Bush was insistent that governmental

controls were not the proper course of action. Late into the year 2001,

141 countries signed the Kyoto’s details and guidelines without the United

States. In February 2005, Russia agreed to enter the Kyoto agreement

placing more international pressure on the United States.

Philosophy and Ideas

A number of governments are loosening their grip on government

control. However, the world philosophy toward government intervention

has not subsided. During hard times it takes patience and a firm belief in

the markets. The dilemma is that most of society and the media don’t

have the patience. Opportunistic politicians try to prey on the publics’

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emotions to get re-elected. The result is something like what happened in

the first term of Richard Nixon. Under so-called “conservative” leadership,

Richard Nixon implemented temporary price controls during an economic

recession in the early 70’s. Richard Nixon was re-elected and the

economy tanked.

Much of the general public is uneducated when it comes to economics.

Each individual would have to be educated at schools such as Northwood

University to understand economic philosophy.

People generally receive their news through radio

sound bites, liberal newspapers, and bias T.V.

networks. Today the news is bent on ratings and

commentary rather than reporting. The result is an uninformed population

and history typically repeating itself. Humans are emotional beings who

tend to remember the emotional things and forget a lot of the facts.

President of Raytheon Corporation, CEO Bill Swanson once said,

“You remember one third of what you read, one half of what

people tell you, but 100 percent of what you feel.”12

Communist and Socialist philosophers cling to the one powerful weapon

they posses, “Idealism”. These philosophers grab power and control in

the name of idealism which capitalizes on societies emotional feelings.

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Raytheon CEO, Bill Swanson

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It is very important for the economy to be strong and free for the private

sector to be successful. Companies rely heavily on investment, a highly

educated workforce, low taxes and incentives from the government.

Research and development are vital to preparing our future technology.

Without a strong economy this kind of innovation is stifled. The Kyoto

Protocol enforces government control on the private sector. This action

forces companies to reduce production, creating less wealth within the

economy. With less growth within the economy, companies have less to

pay for research and development. In retrospect, the Protocol weakens

the very economy which is needed to solve the greenhouse dilemma.

The U.S. Philosophy Makes a Difference

Through the United States, foreign governments have built strong

economies. After World War II, the U.S. helped rebuild Japan into the

fourth largest economy in the world. The U.S. assisted the Germans

during the Russian blockade of Berlin, which later became known as the

Berlin Airlift. The U.S. also helped the Europeans recover from the war

through the Marshall Plan. The United States of America has assisted

starvation in Africa, and is always one of the first to assist during natural

disasters. The United States was at the forefront when the totalitarian

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state of the Soviet Union became uncompromising toward Europe and the

free world. What would life be like without the strong economy of the

United States?

Kyoto and GDP

As of the year 2004, the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

was worth $11.75 trillion. The annual growth rate was a vibrant 4.4

percent. Conversely, the following countries would need to combine their

GDP to about equal the United States: Canada, Egypt, Finland, France,

Germany, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden,

Switzerland, Turkey, and United Kingdom. These countries equal about

$11.78 trillion GDP altogether.13

The United States and our capitalist system have enjoyed enormous

production rates over other countries. As a result our emissions are much

higher than the other foreign economies. The Kyoto Protocol is intended

to reduce these growth rates and gases that create the greenhouse effect.

13 The World Fact Book (2004) Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved: August 1, 2005 from http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

11 Bush, President G. (March 13, 2001) Office of the Press Secretary, Letter to SenatorsRetrieved: July 25, 2005. from http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/03/20010314.html

12 Kaihla, P. (June 21, 2005) The CEO’s Secret Handbook, Business 2.0, The Playbook for a New Generation of Leaders. Retrieved: July 28, 2005.

12

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/03/20010314.html

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The United States government wants to eliminate the gases altogether

through incentives and future technology.

U.S. History with Clean Air

The United States government passed clean air acts in 1963, and

1966. It was the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1970, which energized awareness

of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAP). The CAA of 1970 required the

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to develop and enforce regulation

to protect the general public. The State governments were responsible for

the proper compliance in exchange for funding.

In 1989, President Bush Sr. proposed legislation to reduce three major

threats to the U.S. environment. The three major threats identified were

acid rain, urban air pollution, and toxic air emissions. This proposal

extended, improved and updated the previous Clean Air Acts based on

the following:

1. Encouraged Incentives and Innovation.

2. Provided Alternative Clean Fuels, and Newer Technology.

3. Promoted use of Cleaner Burning Coal and Natural Gas.

4. Created Less Dependency by One Million Barrels per Day

5. Promoted conservation.

The U.S. House and Senate overwhelmingly passed the Bill. On

November 15, President Bush Sr. signed the Clean Air Act of 1990 into

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law.14 This was a very effective Act that improved our environment

immensely.15

Solar, Wind, and Hydrogen are Possible Answers

Wind energy is the most under-rated source of energy. It’s not a new

type of energy; it’s improved along with time. Companies like General

Electric (GE) have made wind energy more efficient and less costly. Wind

14

Effect of Clean Air Act Amendment of 1990 on CFC usage“Chlorofluorocarbons were found in everything from mobile air

President Bush Sr. signs the CAA of 1990.

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energy is still not the complete answer to our energy needs, but it certainly

is a great complement to other major sources of energy. In fact, in 1999,

President Bill Clinton signed an initiative to make wind power the source of

5 percent of all electricity consumed in the United States by the year 2020.

The newest and largest turbine engine built by GE (bottom left) can

produce 3.6 megawatts per hour, while an old diesel plant (bottom right) can

only generate 2.4 megawatts of power per hour. It would take 250 of

these large wind turbine’s to equal a medium size nuclear plant which

generate about 900 megawatts of power. A typical one-megawatt turbine

engine can generate enough power for 300 homes.16 Additionally,

besides the construction of the turbine itself, there’s very little building of

infrastructure. These wind turbines emit no emissions and the technology

is improving rapidly.

Every power plant varies in size. A recent Oregon community

developed a proposal that sought to construct a 600 megawatt power

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http://pwplant.tripod.com/index.html

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plant. The fossil fuel burning plant was estimated to emit 825 tons of

pollutants annually. The construction would cost $485 million and would

serve 3 major counties in the state.17

The problem wind turbines have is that wind is unreliable. A typical

Midwest wind turbine is in use 65 to 80 percent of the time. At 70 percent

the 3.6 megawatt turbine is reduced to 2.52 megawatts per hour. That

would mean 238 wind turbines would need to equal the 600 megawatt

power plant. The total cost of such a project would be about $1 billion.

The extra savings to emit 825 tons of pollutants is about $515 million. For

three countries that is a lot of extra cost. Also turbine windmills only last

an average of 20 years. Although with proper investment, research and

development, and incentives, wind technology can be improved. Wind

turbines need to generate twice the current amount, and cost half as much

to compete with fossil fuel.

Solar energy is another alternative with no emissions. Solar cells

convert sunlight to electricity without moving parts, noise, pollution,

radiation or maintenance. On an individual basis solar can be quite

attractive in sunny states such as California, Arizona, and Florida. Some

owners choose to be off the power grid. The minimum price requirement

is around $16,000 for 2 kilowatts per hour. There are two problems;

cloudy days and the typical day only has about 6 hours of quality sun.18

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Large corporations with

large roof-tops have also

turned to solar power.

This strategy saves on

overhead and decreases

current liabilities in their annual and quarterly statements. A Wal-Mart

store in California has integrated a solar awning over the store entrance.

Walmart proclaims, over the life of the system, the store will save 720 tons

of global warming gases. The downside of solar cells is the life

expectancy is only about 20 years.19 I expect solar panels to replace

shingles in the next decade. Just remember, even shingles need to be

replaced every 20 or 30 years.20

Hydrogen is the lightest and most abundant element in the world. On a

weight basis, it contains more energy than any other energy carrier and

19 U.S. Department of Energy (2005, July 27) Wal-Mart “Experimental Store” Uses Efficiency, Solar, and Wind. Retrieved: August 5, 2005. from http://www.eere.energy.gov/news/news_detail.cfm/news_id=9220

3 Lackner, K. (Columbia Professor). (2003, April 15). Columbia University Website [Video]. Retrieved July 21, 2005, from: http://www.columbia.edu/dlc/dkv/earth_institute/lackner_ISDN.mov

4 Chandler, C. (October 4th, 2004) Inside The New ChinaPart Communist, Part Capitalist – and Full Speed Ahead. Fortune , 84-98Retrieved: July 22, 2005.

20 OkSolar.com (2005) Photovoltaic shingles. Retrieved: August 5, 2005. from http://www.oksolar.com/roof/

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http://www.oksolar.com/roof/

http://www.eere.energy.gov/news/news_detail.cfm/news_id=9220

http://www.columbia.edu/dlc/dkv/earth_institute/lackner_ISDN.mov

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has about 3 times as much energy as gasoline. Only recently has the

United States, a leader in technology, started seriously funding research

for hydrogen fuel. A few years ago, George W. Bush implemented a $1.7

billion dollar program in hopes of inspiring the private sector to develop

hydrogen technology.21 So far the plan has worked. Billions of dollars

have come from the private sector in hopes of being apart of the next

revolution of energy.

The $1.7 billion was a small start that inspired the private sector, but it

should not stop there. Our government needs to start designing ways of

hydrogen distribution and keep funding hydrogen energy during its infant

stages of development. It would not be reasonable to expect fossil fuels

to be obsolete 20 years from now. However, it would be prudent to

dramatically minimize the demand for fossil fuels by that time. Technology

and new discoveries have always helped supply meet demand. It’s time

to devote our financial resources for better energy resources like wind,

solar, hydrogen and other renewable resources. U.S. citizens pay over $2

dollars for a gallon of gas, but when you factor the recent wars fought to

protect our resources the price is much higher.

Efficiency of today can still be improved upon. The Department of

Energy estimates that we could save anywhere from 50 percent to 94

percent of our home energy consumption just through conservation.22

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Companies from the private sector have tried to meet this challenge. As

we become better at conservation, this increases our total reserves,

causing the prices of fossil fuel to drop.

The Speed and History of Innovation

History has shown that the United States has been the leader of

innovation and technology. In 1803, Thomas Jefferson sent Lewis and

Clark to find a water route to the Pacific Ocean, and to explore the

uncharted West. By 1869, the transportation network called the

transcontinental railroad was built. The Central Pacific Railroad started

from Sacramento, California and ultimately connected with the eastern

Union Pacific in the Utah territory. A person could now travel from New

York to California within three and half days, instead of the many months it

previously took to travel. Boston Massachusetts in 1875, only six years

after the transcontinental railroad, Alexander Graham Bell invented the

telephone.

After the turn of the century another prominent figure helped speed the

globalization process, and revolutionized the entire world economies.

Henry Ford introduced the model T car to the general public by mass

producing his product in great numbers. The mass production of the

internal combustion engine inspired other machinery such as the tractor,

cotton gin, and the airplane. All these machines revolutionized their

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industries. In 1903, the Wright Brothers performed the first flight of an

airplane. In May of 1927, Charles Lindbergh was the first to fly “The Spirit

of St. Louis”, across the 3,600 mile Atlantic Ocean in 34 hours. Twenty

years later, Charles Yeager would fly the first supersonic aircraft. In 1957,

the satellite age began when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik and the

United States launched their own satellite which monitored the weather

patterns.

Bill Gates, founder of the Microsoft Corporation in 1976, quit Harvard,

and developed a software operating system that made personal

computers easier to use and understand. Today personal computers are

practically on every desk in the civilized world.

Conclusion

The Kyoto Protocol will never work until all countries are involved.

China will far exceed the United States in emitting greenhouse gases.

Countries like China, India, and Mexico are exempt from Kyoto. It would

be unreasonable to expect the Kyoto Protocol to solve global warming. In

fact after fifteen years, the U.S. would have spent billions of dollars and

global warming would still be a problem. Kyoto tries limiting the symptoms

of the problem. The problem is that our technology is incapable of

stopping greenhouse emissions. The problem will be solved when

technology can competitively build zero emission power plants and

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vehicles. The U.S. needs to invest their money into solving the problem

and not delaying the symptoms of the problem. The focus should be on

innovation, research and development, and new technology.

The free market works through competition and investment. This free

market system is why the United States has become the supreme

superpower of the world. The freer a nation becomes the higher

productivity. The key element within a free society is incentives. North

Korea and Cuba are the only large countries not utilizing the free market in

some form. Because of this protectionist view, North Korea and Cuba’s

economy has suffered greatly.

Former Soviet leader, Vladimir Lenin once said if you control the main

elements of the economy, you control the country. Lenin felt if he

controlled the “Commanding Heights” it would not matter who owned the

smaller parts of the economy. The railroads, steel, timber, manufacturing,

mining, transportation all largely affected the economy. As we

approached midway through the twentieth century only fossil fuels

controlled the majority of the world economies. By imposing limits on U.S.

emission of fossil fuels, foreign powers would gain control of our

“Commanding Heights”. These foreign powers could be able to dictate

our production levels and thereby controlling our economy.

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The Kyoto Protocol is a silent assault on the American economy and

sovereignty. The battle of ideas is between globalization and nationalism.

Globalization tries using the means of “idealism”, to accomplish its goals

of control on other nations. Nationalism uses the means of more

individual freedom to accomplish its goals of independence from other

nations. The Bush administration is under enormous pressure from world

leaders to sign Kyoto in the name of globalization and idealism.

On a personal level, I learned a lot about alternative energy. I have a

much clearer understanding of the alternatives. I could build my future

home without depending on the local power company. I think it would be

14 WikiPedia.org, The Free Encyclopedia. (2005). Clean Air Act. Retrieved: July 26, 2005, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_%281990%29

15

? The National Academies Press (2005) Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. pp.378 Retrieved: July 28, 2005 from http://www.nap.edu/books/0309043867/html/378.html

16 American Wind Energy Association, FactSheet.pdf. Wind Power Myths vs. Facts, Retrieved: February 17th, 2005From: http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/MythsvsFacts-FactSheet.pdf

17 Abraham, K. (2005). Power Play, Does the Proposed Gas-Fired Generator in Coburg Make Sense? Eugene Weekly – Cover Story Retrieved: July 25, 2005, from http://www.eugeneweekly.com/2004/04/01/coverstory.html

18 SolarHouse.com. Solar Costs, How Much Does it Cost? Retrieved: August 4, 2005. from http://www.solarhouse.com/index2.htm

21 memagazine.org (2004) Decision 2004, The Energy Debate. Retrieved: August 6, 2005.From http://www.memagazine.org/supparch/peoct04/decis04/decis04.html

22 Lomborg, Bjorn (1998) The Skeptical Environmentalist, Measuring the Real State of the World 12th Reprint (2004), pp.125, 7th Paragraph Retrieved: August 6, 2005.

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http://www.memagazine.org/supparch/peoct04/decis04/decis04.html

http://www.solarhouse.com/index2.htm

http://www.eugeneweekly.com/2004/04/01/coverstory.html

http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/MythsvsFacts-FactSheet.pdf

http://www.nap.edu/books/0309043867/html/378.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(1990)

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interesting to have solar powered panels to replace shingles on a roof. I

learned the technology exists but the general public is so brainwashed to

utilize conventional ways of power.

I am not in favor of the Kyoto

Protocol; however, I am in favor of

less dependency on fossil fuels.

Dependency is the weak link in our

strong economy, and our enemies

know it. We must think outside the

box of existing ideas.

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The President of the United States speaks about energy.

what is the greenhouse effect - matthew best · web viewthe summer of ’91 was one of the...

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