what is the observed decadal change in east asian monsoon ... · ssta on the easm enhanced easm...
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2011-9-13 By Xiu-Qun YANG Nanjing University 8
What is the observed decadal change in East Asian monsoon climate system ?
Can such a decadal change be considered as natural variability (say, the PDO’s impact)?
What is the role of increased CO2 and aerosols?
Summary
Issues
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Basin-scale air-sea interaction signatures in the Pacific
Interannual Signature Decadal-to-interdecadal Signature
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PC1 (PDO index)
1976/77
Basin-scale pattern of PDOWarming in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans,
while cooling in the North Pacific
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Relationship among precipitation in northern China, SOI, IPO and PDO
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Simulated response of EASM to historical SSTswith CAM3/NCAR
Li, Dai and Zhou, Clim Dyn, 2010
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SST anomalies related to EASM’s weakeningPDO-related SSTA pattern
Yang and Zhang, 2011
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TIO SSTA only CCM3-simulated decadal change of the EASM with prescribed observed SST
for 1949-98Post-77 minus pre-1977
Opposite effect of TIO SSTA and TPO SSTA on the EASM
Enhanced EASM
Weakened EASM
A
AC
C
TPO SSTA only
Yang and Zhang, 2011
CA
TIO+TPO SSTA