what keeps ceos awake at night?

58
WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER Phil Ruthven, Chairman What Keeps The CEOs Awake At Night 12 th Annual Conference Research Lounge RMIT 5/28 501 Swanston St Melbourne 10 October 2011

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Keynote presentation by Phillip Ruthven from IBISWorld Pty Ltd giving his thoughts and perspectives on what keeps CEOs awake at night. 2011 actKM Conference. Melbourne, Australia. 10 October 2011.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

Phil Ruthven, Chairman

What Keeps The CEOs Awake At Night

12th Annual Conference

Research Lounge RMIT 5/28501 Swanston St Melbourne

10 October 2011

Page 2: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Topics

1. Sleepless Nights

2. A New Age Business

3. The Intelligent Organisation

4. Innovation & Productivity

5. Keys To Success

6. Australia’s Global Context

Page 3: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

1.Sleepless Nights

Page 4: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Keeping Us Awake

1. What is happening to my industry and markets 2. Where is the economy going 3. What will happen to interest & exchange rates 4. Keeping good staff and getting more of them 5. Managing the Net Generation employees (< 28) 6. Government stability, sensible IR laws 7. More productivity to compete locally and overseas 8. Best way to grow the business 9. Raising capital (and at good rates if debt capital) 9. My kids, brother in law and mother in law! 11. Surprises, I don’t need them 12. Heaps of other things

Page 5: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

2. A New Age Business

Page 6: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Ages Of Economic ProgressGDP @ Constant F2011 Prices Australia 1788-2011 and onwards

GD

P $

bil

lio

n

IndustrialAge

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

220017

8017

9018

0018

1018

2018

3018

4018

5018

6018

7018

8018

9019

0019

1019

2019

3019

4019

5019

6019

7019

8019

9020

0020

1020

2020

3020

4020

5020

6020

7020

8020

9021

00

HuntingAge

AgrarianAge

InfotronicsAge

IndustrialAge

Year, ended June IBISWorld 26/05/11

An Industrial Age is when Manufacturing and Construction dominate the economy (c. 30-50%+ of GDP)

Agriculture,Mining, Banking, Commerce

Transport the major

utility

Quaternary service industries

Hunting, trapping, fishing,crafts, religion

Enlightenment Age ?

Quinary service industries

Imbedded intelligence,

neural network Programs.

More electronic “guardian

angels” and other new

technologies

Electricity, gas & water, and telephony, the

Industrial Age utilities

IC&T the Infotronics Age utility

Page 7: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

The Big Changes For Enterprises In The New Age , 1965-2040s

Business reverses from production to market orientation

Protectionism fades, and international trade grows

Goods industries lose importance as share of GDP

Over 100 new service industries emerge

New utility (IC&T), adding to old (electricity, telephony etc)

Outsourcing of non-core functions and activities

Importance of intellectual property (IP) over hard assets

OH&S becomes de rigueur; ditto world best practice (WBP)

Old style employment gives way to contractualism

SMEs increase share of economy (new industries, outsourcing)

Emergence of franchising, and strategic alliances

Adopting an information mindset, a condition of survival

Page 8: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Expectations of a New Age business

1. Profitability and growth ROSF (after tax) of 4 times the bond rate Growth better than the industry average International expansion where possible

2. Uniqueness in: Product, IP and operations Organisational culture

3. World best practice in: Operations Value for money for customers Respect for the society in which it operates Relations with other stakeholders Treatment of the natural environment

Page 9: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

26th 5025th 5024th 5023rd 5022nd 5021st 5020th 5019th 5018th 5017th 5016th 5015th 5014th 5013th 5012th 5011th 5010th 509th 50

Average8th 507th 506th 505th 504th 503rd 502nd 50

Best 50

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

-4.4

-1.10.41.6

2.84.04.96.17.18.49.410.511.612.6

15.516.717.2

20.422.3

25.329.2

34.551.3

176.8

Includes private and government businesses

Percent

Australian Profitability by Cohorts Return on Shareholder Funds (after tax), 1300 Best Large Enterprises 5 years to F2010

Source: IBISWorld 22/11/10

23% > Best Practice (ROSF 22.4%)34% > Average (ROSF 15.3%) 41% > Cost of capital (12.2%)64% > Bond Rate (5.6%)17% Losses

-12.2

-40.0

183.1

14.2

Page 10: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Government Admin.Transport

HealthEducation

ManufacturingCult & Recn Serv

UtilitiesOther Services

AgricultureProp & Bus Serv

AverageW'Sale TradeConstruction

Finance & InsHospitality

CommunicationsRetail Trade

Mining

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

4.9

4.9

7.1

8.1

8.6

9.6

9.7

11.2

12.2

14.1

14.7

17.2

17.3

21.0

22.2

29.2

3.0

Are there bad industries, as suggested by this chart or really a number of industrieswith bad management practices, old-fash-ioned traditions and/or interfered with by governments and their debilitating bureau-cracies ?

ROSF (%)

Australian Profitability By Major Industries

Return on Shareholder Funds (after tax), Top 1350 businesses 5 years to F2010

Source: IBISWorld 22/11/10

8.2

4.1

Page 11: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Education

Communications

Mining

Other Services

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Retail Trade

All Industries

Manufacturing

Finance & Ins

Healh

Cult & Recn Serv

Prop & Bus Serv

Transport

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

49.0

51.6

52.5

54.0

56.1

58.2

57.5

57.5

63.8

79.8

69.6

85.4

Percent

Australian Profitability By Major Industries

Return on Shareholder Funds (after tax), Best 100 5 years to F2010

Source: IBISWorld 25/02/11

41.6

Includes private enterprises42.2

4 companies

16 companies

3 companies

1 company

9 companies

21 companies

10 companies

6 companies

23 companies

1 company

4 companies

1 company

1 company

Page 12: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

301

99

01

99

11

99

21

99

31

99

41

99

51

99

61

99

71

99

81

99

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

02

011

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

RO

SF

(%

)

Corporate Profitability to 2010 (Return on Shareholders Funds, after tax)

AustralianLargest 30 Listeds

USA Largest 30 Listeds

Page 13: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

3.The Intelligent Organisation

Page 14: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Our

© IBISWorld

The Total Environment For My Business

MyFirm

Page 15: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Some of The Developments & ChallengesWorld Environment

Basaically strong growth Rising energy prices Impact of BRIC Emerging borderless world Terrorism and epidemicsResource Environment

Mining, Infrastructure, IC&T Ecological challengesCommunity Environment

Living longer, ageing Geographic shifts Generational differences Changing spending patterns Polarisation of incomes & wealth

Economic Environment High confidence levels Sustained strong growth Growth in services Vs goods Rising trade as % of GDP

Labour Environment Emerging sellers market Skill shortages Move to contractualism Lifelong education & training

Government Environment Rationalism Vs humanism Balanced/surplus budgets Among lowest taxed in OECD Excessive laws & regulations

Page 16: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Finance Environment Managed funds growth Ease of access to capital Rising interest rates Exchange rate volatility Rising fees

Services Environment Growth due to outsourcing Appetite for information/advice Rising legal and A/C costs

Goods & Materials Rising commodity prices More sourcing offshore Falling importance within GDP

Marketplace Environment Service products dominant Offshore markets Changing advertising mix Rationalisation of markets Importance of CRM programs

Industry Environment

465 classes of industry Lifecycle phase of industry Service industries dominant Rising foreign ownership Less government ownership ACCC & ASIC Progressive rationalisation

Page 17: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

In the Industrial Age businesses generally planned and operated on an inside-out basis.

The external business environments were largely opaque to an enterprise which tended to be fortress style; and enterprises were opaque to outsiders who saw enterprises as secretive.

In the New Age businesses must now forecast, plan and operate on an outside-in basis.

The business environments are becoming transparent to enterprises, and in turn the enterprises

are becoming more transparent to outsiders.

Page 18: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

How much do we need to know about . . .

The Influential Environments (4) 1. The world environment, growth, regions, nations, demography etc. ? 2. National resources,developed (infrastructure, IC&T), natural (resources, ecology) ? 3. Our community, its changing demography, lifestyles and spending ? 4. The economic environment, the “business weather” conditions ?

The Operating Environments (6) 5. The government environment, laws, taxes, policies, incentives ? 6. The finance market, equity, debt, exchange/interest rates, treasury ? 7. The services market, to outsource none-core activities and functions ? 8. The labour market, for executives, employees and customers ? 9. The purchases market, raw materials, semi-/finished goods, prices ? 10. Its market, local and global ?

The Immediate Environment Our own industry, WBP, size, growth & disposition, competitors? Our Own Business Its IP, financials, sales, operations, TQC, productivity, R&D, HR etc. ?

Page 19: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

The Key QuestionsI. What are the golden rules for being a successful

and world best practice (WBP) business?

II. What business or businesses are we in (as officially defined by ANZSIC class, not arbitrarily)?

III. What makes our industry tick, and where is it going?

IV. How well do we do in our industry and at large

V. What market or markets do we serve?

VI. What is happening to the business environment within which we operate?

VII. Do we have a winnable strategy and business plan?

VIII. Are we appropriately structured with a professional first line team and operationally managed to achieve a winnable strategy?

Page 20: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Business Intelligence Expenditure on data and information, F2011(E)

Internall y Generated

64.5%

5.6% of all business revenue ($ 215 billion in Australia)

35.5%

Externally Sourced

Finance & Accounts R

&D,

Innovation

Operational

analyses etc.

Sales analysis Personnel

IBISWorld 30/09/11

Page 21: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Nearly two thirds of all business data, information and intelligence in Australia in F2010 will be internally generated.

How much value-adding do we do with this, to help with planning, efficiency, revenue growth, CRM and profitability?

Page 22: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

ICT CEO & Board

Internally Generated Information? 65% of all business spending

© IBISWorld

IC&T

CIO?

$140billion in Australia in F2011

Page 23: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Over one third of all spending on data, information and intelligence by enterprises in F2010 will be outsourced.

This proportion has been steadily increasing from less than 10% half a century ago to an estimated 35.5% this year.

We are spending more on information and also outsourcing more of it.

Page 24: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Type Of Outsourced Business Information Australia F2010 (E)

IBISWorld 18/11/09

2% of national revenue ($68.8 billion Expenditure)

Other1

Associations 6.7%

Mgt. Consulting

News/Books/Mags.

1.2%

Legal Services

AccountingServices

Env. Serv. 7.7%

26.2%

Conferences/Meetings2

Data/Informn. 6.5%

20.3%

Online Info 2.0%ISPs 1.7%Data Process 1.5%Mkt. Research 1.3%

Cons. Eng. + Architects

10.6%

Exploratory

9.7%

5.8% 2.2%

Note: 1 Public Relations Credit Agencies O ther 0.7

2 Includes accommodation, travel, registration fees, speakers etc

ScientificResearch

3.1%

Page 25: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Purpose Of Outsourced Information About What? F2010 (F)

IBISWorld 17/11/10

$ 68.8 billion expenditure (Australia)

Government 1.0%World 0.8%Services 0.5%Resources 0.5%

Own Industry 9.8%

Comm

unity 1.5%

Market 4.0%

Economy 2.5% Finance 3.0%

71.6% About Our Own Company1

Purchases 2.9%

Labour 2.0%

Exploratory

From Accounting firms, Legal firms, Management Consultants,

Consulting Engineers etc

Spending on information about the external environment ($19.5billion) is 28% of all outsourced spending and 10% of all spending

Page 26: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Of all the business spending on data, information and intelligence - $195 billion - only 10% is spent on issues in the external environment.

But this spending is growing nearly 2% pa faster than the economy in response to the need to plan on an outside-in basis, displacing the old inside-out approach of the secretive Industrial Age?

Page 27: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

The Imperative of Going Up The

Information Chain

Page 28: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

The Knowledge Pyramid

By ValueBy Volume

Hearsay, Rumour, Scuttlebut

Data

Information

Expert Opinion

Intelligence

Vision

Hearsay

Data

Information

Intelligence

Expert Opinion

Wisdom

Vision & Strategy

Unique IP

Expert Opinion

Wisdom

Unique IP

Vision

Decreasing Value

Increasing Value

Source: IBISWorld 18/11/09

But interesting!

Page 29: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

4.The Innovation & Productivity

Imperative

Page 30: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

TaiwanUK

GermanyBelgiumIceland

DenmarkUAE

SwedenKuwai

IrelandAustriaCanada

AustraliaSwitzerland

USABrunei

NorwaySingapore

LuxembourgQatar

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Standard Of Living Ladder GDP/capita ($USppp’000) 2010

IMF: 04/04/11

Population Australia 22.5

12 of the Top 20 have populations smaller than Australia

Page 31: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Productivity Growth Change in GDP/hours worked 1903-2011 (3-year moving average)

19

00

19

05

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

-5-4-3-2-10123456789

10

Per

cen

t

ABS/IBISWorld 30/09/119Year Ended June

1.7% per annum New Age average(1965- onwards )

Average to 1964 (the Industrial Age) 2.07Average after 1964 (Infotronics Age) 1.65

Page 32: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

ProductivityGDP per hours worked (4-quarter moving average) to June 2011

Source: ABS Cat NO 5206.0 IBISWorld 15/08/11

1960

1962

1964

1966

1969

1971

1973

1975

1978

1980

1982

1984

1987

1989

1991

1993

1996

1998

2000

2002

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2016

2018

2020

-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

%

New Age average 1.7% per annum

Page 33: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Mining

Utilities

Real Estate/Rent

Hospitality

Other Services

Education

Health

Govt Adm/Def

Prof & Tech Serv

W'Sale Trade

GDP

Transport

Arts & Recn

Construction

Manufacturing

Admin Serv

Retail Trade

Finance & Ins

Agriculture

Communications/Media

-12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-11.0

-8.4

-2.2

-1.9

-1.4

-0.10.0

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.3

2.4

3.5

4.8

5.2

Source: ABS 5204.25 07/09/11

Percent Growth

Australian Industries Productivity 5 year growth to F2011, % p.a (IGP / hour worked)

Long term average productivity 1.8% pa

The shortfall of 1.2% pa over the past 5 years fully explained by Mining and Utilities which were both shockingly negative

Page 34: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

5.Keys To Success

Page 35: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

What the Best Enterprises Are Doing

1. They stick to one business at a time and do not diversify

2. They aim to dominate some segment (s) of their market

3. They are forever innovative, valuing the business’ IP.

4. They outsource non-core activities to enable growth.

5. They don’t own “hard” assets.

6. They have good and professional financial management. 7. They plan from the outside-in not the inside-out

8. They anticipate any new industry lifecycle changes.

9. They follow world best practice for their own type of business.

10. They develop strategic alliances.11. They develop unique organisational cultures.12. They value leadership first and management second.

Page 36: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

1. Stick To One Business At A Time

(Focus)

In the New Age, specialisation is critical - being in just one of the nation’s 465 classes of industry. It is very difficult to reach world best practice in even one industry class these days. Growth is best sought geographically (regional, global) rather than through diversification.

And yes, there are some exceptions, but not many.See next slide.

Page 37: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

By Focus Focused (mainly single industry class) 99 74.0% Theme Conglomerates 1 117.3% Classic Conglomerates 0 -

100 74.2%

By Ownership Foreign Owned 50 57.3%

Private 16 348.4% Listed 34 59.0 %

100 74.2%

The 100 Best Companies ROSF after tax (%), 5-Year Average to F2010

Notes: 1 Excludes monopolies. Revenue $62 billion (1.7% of nation’s total revenue) Source: IBISWorld 23/02/11

Page 38: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

2.Aim To Dominate Something

(Positioning)

Secure a safe industry position in your chosen industry to be master-of one’s-own-destiny by dominating something.

Domination can be of:

the whole industry class (being a major); or one category in the industry (a niche player);

or one product group1 (an ultra-niche player); or one product category ( a boutique operator).

Note: 1 Or a customer segment; and occasionally a geographic area

Page 39: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Industry Share Strategy(positioning for a winnable war)

Source: IBISWorld

Major Player

25-75%

5% 1-5 %

No-man’s-land (un-winnable position)

Caught between nichers (“knee-cappers”) and ultra-niche players (“ankle-biters”)

Exotic/boutique operator (0.1%)

No-man’s-land

5-25%

Ultra-niche specialist (1%)

Niche Player

No-man’s-land (un-winnable position)

Caught between majors (“sledgehammers”) and niche players (“knee-cappers”)

Page 40: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

A “major” player (ie 25%+ of an industry’s revenue) needs to have 35-50% shares of the product groups in which they choose to compete.

A “niche player” (5% of an industry’s revenue) needs to dominate a market segment (50%+ share), usually product based but can sometimes be geographic based.

An “ultra niche” specialist (1% of an industries revenue) dominates a product group with a 75%+ share.

A “boutique” or “exotic” operator (0.1% share of the industry’s revenue) owns a product line outright with no competitors.

Page 41: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

3.Forever Innovative

(Pursuing Intellectual Property)

Patents, formulae, unique technology, processes and brands were valued in the Industrial Age, but rarely reflected in balance sheets. In the New Age, intellectual property is a more complex “cocktail”. It consists of skills, special competencies, unique systems, winning cultures - as well as patents, copyright, unique formulae, unique technology & processes, brand & mast-head strength etc.

It is the "holy grail" of an enterprise, its core and its most valuable balance sheet asset - whether recorded as such in dollar terms or not.

Page 42: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Intellectual Property

Intellectual property can best be described as a “cocktail” of:

• skills, special competencies, unique systems; • patents, trademarks & brands; • organisational culture, customer relation

protocols; • vision, plans and documented achievable

strategies.

It is the "holy grail" of a enterprise, its core and its most valuable balance sheet asset, whether recorded as such in dollar terms or not.

Page 43: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

11. Developing A Unique Culture

A unique culture is about attracting and keeping good people to your business, and helping develop ordinary people into extraordinary people.

This is built on a base of world best practice principles of human resources management. But a unique culture goes well beyond the basics: it needs to have special elements of both a tangible and intangible nature.

No matter how often we say it, employees are not a firm’s most valuable asset, since slavery has been outlawed for some considerable time! But they can be “valued”, and a unique culture is vital to this goal.

Page 44: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

12. Leadership

Leadership sits above management. It is, by nature, demanding of special attributes such as loneliness in ultimate decision making (after full consultation), with no voting. And, sometimes, no consensus.

It is non-gender specific (unlike management which favours females in the New Age of service industries).

Leadership involves more external focus than internal: the opposite of management.

Apart from listening to experts and confidantes, it involves communicating directly with major customers at least once a year.

Page 45: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

6.Australia’s

Global Context

Page 46: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

World GDP GrowthReal growth (PPP), 1950-2012(F)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

121940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Pe

r c

en

t 1950-1969 growthin US$ market terms

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms

IMF/Economist//IBISWorld: 11/09/11

2008 3.2% 2009 -0.7% * 2010 4.1% 2011 3.6% (F)2012 3.7% (F)

* The world decline in 2009 was -2.0% when measured in $US market price terms

Page 47: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

World’s 30 Largest Economies 2011 (F)

World’s 228 nations US$ 78.1 trillion

Mexico 2.1%S. Korea 2.0%Spain 1.8%Canada 1.8%Indonesia 1.4%Turkey 1.3%Australia 1.2% 17thIran 1.1%Taiwan 1.1%Poland 1.0%

UK G

erm

any

3.9%

11th – 20th Nations 14.6%

Russia

14.3% ChinaItaly France

Brazil

19.4% USA

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms

Japan

Rest of World(198 nations) 16.1%

India

5.1%3.0%2.9%

2.7%2.6

%

2.3

%

6.4%

21 - 30 th Nations 6.4%

IMF/IBISWorld 08/02/11

Netherlands 0.9%Argentina 0.8%Saudi Arabia 0.8%Thailand 0.8%S. Africa 0.7%Egypt 0.6%Pakistan 0.6% Colombia 0.6%Malaysia 0.6%Belgium 0.5%

Page 48: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

World’s 30 Largest Economies 2015 (F)

Includes H/K (0.4%) and Taiwan (1.1%)

World’s 228 nations US$ 99.3 trillion

Italy 2.0%S. Korea 1.9%Canada 1.6%Spain 1.6%Indonesia 1.5%Turkey 1.2%Australia 1.1% 17thIran 1.0%Poland 1.01%S. Arabia 0.8%

UK

Germany

5.1%

11- 20th Nations 14.0%

Russia

18.1% USAMexico 2.1%

France

Brazil

18.7% China

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms

India

Rest of World(198 nations) 13.7%

Jap

an6.4%3.5%

3.0%

2.9%2.7

%2.6

%

21 - 30 th Nations 6.8%

Wikipedia & iBISWorld 08/02/11

Netherlands 0.8%Argentina 0.8%Thailand 0.8%S. Africa 0.7%Egypt 0.7%Pakistan 0.6% Colombia 0.6%Malaysia 0.6%Nigeria 0.6%Belgium 0.5%

Page 49: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

The World’s Economic Regions In 2011(F)Share of World GDP (ppp basis)

2011 World GDP, $US 78.1 trillion

C&S America6.3%

North America23.3%

W&C Europe21.7%

EasternEurope3.7%

Asia Pacific28.9%Africa

3.9%

ME5.4%

IndianS-C 6.8%

IBISWorld 08/02/11

Page 50: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

World Regions ImportanceChanging importance, % of World GDP (ppp terms)

Source: OECD 08/02/11

1870 1913 1950 2015

26.1%17.0% 16.3%

31.8%

7.6%

8.6%9.6%

4.0%

33.6%

35.5%

27.3%

19.0%

2.0%

3.5%

6.7%

6.0%

12.7%22.8%

30.5%21.9%

2.7%3.6%

4.1%

4.2%

7.7%

Middle East Africa

Indian S-C

Asia Pacific

5.5%

1.1 2.7 5.3 99.3 GDP (trillion)

1870 1913 1950 2015 (F) Year

Nth America

C & S America

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

12.2%

7.6%

3.6%

Page 51: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Asia Pacific EconomyGDP ppp terms 2011

*Korea 7.0%

Source: International Monetary Fund, Oct 2010

Australia

4.1%%

Indonesia

Thailand 2.8%

Singapore 1.4% Vietnam 1.3% NZ 0.6% Myanmar 0.4% Cambodia 0.1% Laos 0.1% PNG 0.1%Other 1.1%

47.2% China

Japan 20.2%

Malaysia

Phillipines

HK

1.5%

Tai

wan

3.8%

4.8%

1.9%1.6% Others

5%

*North Korea 0.19% South Korea 6.93%

$21.2 trillion total

2.8%

Page 52: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Asia EconomyAsia Pacific + Indian S-C

ppp terms 2015 (F)

$US 38.9 trillion (39.8% of world GDP)

Indonesia 3.9%

Source: Wikipedia/ IBISWorld 18/02/11

India 16.4%

Other A-P0.3%

NZ 0.4%

H/K 1.1%

Australia 2.9%

Singapore 1.0%Vietnam 1.1%Philipp 1.2%Malaysia 1.5%.Thailand 2.0%

Greater China47.9%

44.0% China

13.0%

JapanSouth Korea 5.0%

Other Indian S-C3.1%

Taiwan

2.8%

Page 53: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Economic Growth: ChinaReal growth 1950-2012 (F)

-28-24-20-16-12-8-4048

12162024

19

50

19

54

19

58

19

62

19

66

19

70

19

74

19

78

19

82

19

86

19

90

19

94

19

98

20

02

20

06

20

10

20

14

20

18

20

22

Pe

r c

en

t

SSBC/IBISWorld: 18/09/11

8.2% average

Page 54: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Economic Growth IndiaReal GDP growth 1950-2012 (F)

-12-10-8-6-4-202468

10121416

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

Per

cen

t

SSBC/IBISWorld: 18/09/11

Growing

faster

Page 55: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Economic Growth IndonesiaReal GDP growth 1950-2012 (F)

-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468

10121416181

95

0

19

54

19

58

19

62

19

66

19

70

19

74

19

78

19

82

19

86

19

90

19

94

19

98

20

02

20

06

20

10

20

14

20

18

Pe

r c

en

t

SSBC/IBISWorld: 18/09/11

6.0%

average

Page 56: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Economic Growth JapanReal GDP growth 1950-2012 (F)

-12-10-8-6-4-202468

1012141619

50

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

Per

cen

t

SSBC/IBISWorld: 27/09/11

1961-1976

8.5% pa1977-1991

3.8% pa1992-2007

1.4% pa

Page 57: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

Economic Growth: AustraliaReal growth 1961-2012 (E)

-12-10-8-6-4-202468

101214161

95

0

19

54

19

58

19

62

19

66

19

70

19

74

19

78

19

82

19

86

19

90

19

94

19

98

20

02

20

06

20

10

20

14

20

18

Pe

r c

en

t

SSBC/IBISWorld: 27/09/11

3.5% average

Page 58: What keeps CEOs awake at night?

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