What makes people socially excluded?

Role of drivers, individual characteristics and local conditions.

Mihail Peleah, Andrey Ivanov, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center

Presentation for HDCA 2013 Conference10-12 September 2013, Managua, Nicaragua

Drivers of social exclusionSpecific local conditions

Social exclusion status

Individual characteristics

interact with

in context of

…and result in

Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policiesDrivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion

(social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status

Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster

of the individual in three dimensions—exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation

Social Exclusion Chain

HOW WE MEASURE SOCIAL EXCLUSION STATUS?

Social Exclusion Index

• Objective and multidimensional measure of social exclusion

• Measure status excluded or non-excluded, not ‘perception’ or ‘risk’

• Applicable for Europe and Central Asia region

• Useful for policymaking

Data sources• Regional Survey for RHDR (2009)

• Kazakhstan and Tajikistan• Moldova and Ukraine• Macedonia FYR and Serbia

• + Armenia: Social Cohesion Study (2010)• Compatible with the Regional Survey• Includes sub-national level

• Serbia• Secondary source contextualization• Roma and IDP

Construction of index

• Based on Alkire-Foster (2009)• 3 areas of exclusion

– Economic exclusion– Exclusion from – Exclusion from civic and political participation

• 24 indicators, 8 per area• Exclusion is overlapping deprivations• Threshold is 9 out of 24

Social Exclusion Index H—Social Exclusion HeadcountSensitive to breadth, not depth of exclusionH=0.600 (3 out of 5) A—Average Share of Deprivations among ExcludedSensitive to depth of exclusionA=0.569 M0=H▪A—Social Exclusion IndexSensitive both to breadth and depth of exclusionM0=0.600•0.569=0.341

Profiles of exclusison

DRIVERS OF EXCLUSION

Drivers of Exclusion

• Structural or institutional drivers

• Values and behavioural patterns

• Policies

Corruption: Supply and Tolerance

Attitudes matter

PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS

Different combinations of individual risks and local context results in different levels of social exclusion

Average

Capital or economic center

Small town

Village

Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences…

Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local

conditions and amplify exclusion

Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded!

Local conditions matter

Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

Cycles of exclusion

LOCAL CONDITIONS

Three steps

• Regional study– In-study contextual data– Contextualization by experts

• Armenia– Secondary sources at regional level

• Serbia– Secondary sources at municipal level– Extended set of indicators– Some econometrics

Secondary Source Contextualization

Survey

Administrative datasets

Statistical databases

Local economy matters

Serbia: Social Exclusion andHealth

Serbia: Social Exclusion and Education

Serbia: Social Exclusion and Employment

Regression: Mixed pictureFull set Booster Full set Boosterind OLS ind OLS best MLS best MLS

lactrate Activity rate (%) +0.002 -0.046lorgemp Employed in enterprise, institutions, cooperatives and other

organizations (total, %)-0.046 +0.038 -0.028

lagric Agriculture, forestry and water works (%) +0.068 -0.394lromashare Share of Roma in settlement +0.217 -0.486lcurrevpc Current revenues (in RSD thousands) per capita -0.028 -0.110 -0.036 -0.066ldistcap Distance from capital (by car) +0.004 +0.032ldistuni Distance to nearest university -0.011 +0.095 -0.028ldistrest Distance to nearest restaurant -0.000 +0.092ldisthosp Distance to nearest hospital +0.032 +0.088lbirth1000w Birth rate per 1000 women -0.050 -0.435 -0.052ldeath1000 Number of deaths per year per 1000 +0.232 -0.804lpupsch Number of pupils in primary schools per school -0.002 +0.002lchisch Number of children in preschool institutions per institution -0.003 +0.006 +0.019lchi1000 Number of children in preschool institutions per 1000 children 5-9 -0.005 -0.001 -0.005

ldoc1000 Number of doctors per capita per 1000 people -0.185 -2.175lvoted Number of voters who casted their vote in last elections per 100

person adult population (share of those who casted)-0.001 +0.218 +0.488

nperhh Number of persons in household -0.165 +0.771nkids14hh Number of children under 14 in household -0.189 +1.389 -0.311 +1.204v15 Age of respondent +0.063 -0.005p_isdsbld Main respondent has disability or long-term illenss +2.600 +3.220 +2.432 +2.519

COMBINING PIECES OF PUZZLE

Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion

If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion

…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…

…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference

…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)

…and much more if you are educated

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Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011