What Program AreasAnd In Which State Regions

Do We Need To Grow?Part I

Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment

December 10, 2012

www.flbog.edu

Part AIntroduction

2

www.flbog.edu

Key Questions3

Shorter-term• What industries and occupations are projected to be in greatest demand in

Florida between now and 2020?• State-wide• By region

• Operationalizing an example of Gap Analysis: What is the gap between projected demand and potential supply for I.T.?• State-wide• For what regions

• If we accept BOG degree projections to 2020, what is the potential demand for graduates in top occupations?

Longer-term• Does the Commission envision a more ambitious future for Florida – with

demand for higher levels of education for future workers? If so, what is the benchmark (an overall growth factor)? The Big 4 states? High Performing States? Other?

www.flbog.edu

4 Definition of Terms

Demand: Degree-holders employers are projected to need

Supply: Degree-holders the higher education system can potentially generate

Total Employment: All non-agricultural jobs in Florida

Total Openings: The combined job openings from both growth and replacement

Annual Openings: The projected job openings each year

Growth Job: Additional jobs above and beyond the replacement jobs total

Replacement Job: Job vacancy created by retirees and leavers

Industry Sectors: Employer industry categories of FL DEO & U.S. Dept. of Labor

SOC Codes: Standard Occupational Classification codes (FL DEO & U.S. DOL)

IPEDS: Federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (U.S. Dept. of Education)

CIP Codes: Classification scheme for curricular disciplines and majors (IPEDS degree categories, U.S. DOE)

www.flbog.edu

5 Part BThe Current Demand Picture

www.flbog.edu

Florida Employment6

Florida’s recession job loss was huge.

Projecting supply, demand and gaps is especially challenging in this economic climate.

• Employment levels dropped to what they were almost a decade ago. • Recovery is projected to be slower than past recoveries. • More unemployed Floridians with college degrees will be seeking jobs

alongside newly graduated degree-holders in the future. • Florida is projected to gain more than one million new jobs between 2012 and

2020 (1.6% annual growth). • The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to 6.5% by 2020, and projected

total employment will be just over 9 million jobs.

www.flbog.edu

Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement (Projected to

2020)

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program.Prepared: October 2012.

7

3,244,1002,255,400 2,540,800

1,691,400 3,524,2003,908,500

1,743,450 435,150495,500305,300 448,100518,9001,185,200 1,106,950

1,257,000288,500 317,900

372,300

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,00010,000,000

2004 2012 2020

Jobs

Florida Occupational Employment by Educational RequirementU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Education Codes

Master's and above

Bachelor's Degree

Associate's Degree

Postsecondary VocationalHigh School Diploma

Less than High School

Projected

Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics, Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Prepared Oct. 2012

www.flbog.edu

Florida Projected Job Growth and Replacement (Baccalaureate Level and

Higher)

393,498338,579

104,322

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Requiring a Bachelor's (RNs included)

Requiring a Bachelor’s (RNs excluded)

Requiring a Master's or Higher

2012 - 2020

Florida Projected Job Openings Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher Cumulative Growth 2012 - 2020-

(BLS Education Codes)

Column A

Column B

2012 - 20202012 - 2020

Column CJo

b O

pen

ing

s (

Gro

wth

an

d R

epla

ce

men

t)

Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr. Employment Projections Program. Prepared Oct. 2012

8

www.flbog.edu

Current Jobs Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree

by Industry in Florida (2012)

9

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.

9

www.flbog.edu

Total Jobs: Workforce Demand within Industries

by Educational Level (if current trends continue)

10

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.(*Projections rounded to the nearest 100.)

INDUSTRYTOTALJOBS

Projected for 2020

Associate Degree Bachelor's & Higher

# % # %

TOTAL, All Industries 9,092,891 518,913 6% 1,629,281 18%

Education and Health Services 1,928,405 284,055 15% 634,886 33%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,651,109 16,068 1% 100,373 6%

Professional and Business Services 1,287,322 92,888 7% 325,046 25%

Leisure and Hospitality 1,105,742 7,468 1% 27,776 3%

Self Employed 706,032 30,037 4% 138,987 20%

Government 569,907 27,767 5% 135,182 24%

Financial Activities 526,575 6,521 1% 97,883 19%

Construction 449,302 23,871 5% 23,988 5%

Other Services (Except Government) 345,770 15,334 4% 57,341 17%

Manufacturing 311,954 10,370 3% 46,095 15%

Information 130,016 4,137 3% 39,451 30%Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 77,513 307 0% 2,122 3%

Mining 3,244 90 3% 151 5%

www.flbog.edu

Annual Average Occupational DemandGrowth by Specific Occupation (Baccalaureate Level)

11

Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education

Financial Managers

Software Developers, Systems Software

Civil Engineers

Personal Financial Advisors

Sales Managers

Public Relations Specialists

Chief Executives

Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists

Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc. Education

Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Voc. Ed.

Management Analysts

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education

Accountants and Auditors

From Growth

From Replacement

510

530

540

580

580

600

600

660

760

780

1,240

1,450

1,870

2,890

3,240Average Annual Salary

$66,760$50,960

$74,160

$53,580

$51,430

$58,670

$88,070

$191,750

$59,430

$129,490

$82,420

$83,100

$90,720

$122,960

$50,440

Source: Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released Sept.2012. NOTE: Data rounded by FL Board of Governors.

www.flbog.edu

Part CRegional Considerations in Workforce

Demand

12

www.flbog.edu

Florida’s Workforce Regions13

www.flbog.edu

Greatest Number of Annual Openingsby Workforce Region

14

Occupational Titles (BLS Baccalaureate Level)Statewid

eJacksonvill

e Miami OrlandoAccountants and Auditors 3,300 230 420 540Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 3,060 220 370 470Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Voc. Ed. 1,670 110 200 250Management Analysts 1,650 130 190 270Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc. Education 1,290 100 130 210

Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Mfg, Tech. & Sci. Products 1,250 90 190 130Public Relations Specialists 820 70 120 160Recreation Workers 770 . . .Graphic Designers 750 . 130 160Compliance Officers, Exc. Safety, Agri, Constr & Transp. 740 . 170 .Civil Engineers . 70 . .Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents . 110 130 .Chief Executives . . . 140Sales Managers . 70 . 130

Grand Total 15,300 1,180 2,050 2,470

SOURCE: Board of Governors staff analysis of Dept. of Economic Opportunity 2011-19 Occupational Projections.NOTE: DEO 2020 projections have been rounded to the nearest tens digit.

www.flbog.edu

Part DGap Analysis

15

www.flbog.edu

CIP: Classification of Instructional Program

16

CIP codes provide more detailed information on degree production at the two-digit, four-digit, and six-digit levels, respectively.

CIP Code 11: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

11.02 Computer Programming11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer General11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product

Certification11.08 Computer Software and Media Applications

11.0803 Computer Graphics11.0804 Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation

www.flbog.edu

Elements of a Demand-SupplyGap Analysis

Surveyed by FDEO to

determine projected hiring

using USDOL Standard

Occupational Classification

codes

SOC codes have been cross-

walked to related

educational CIP codes by the

National Crosswalk

Center

Classification of

Instructional Programs (CIP) codes assigned to educational programs using

a taxonomy established by

the U.S. Department of

Education

Colleges and universities offer

degrees identified by CIP codes which can

be reasonably aligned with SOC codes

Educational

Institutions

(SUS, FCS, ICUF, CIE)

US Dept. of

Education (NCES/IPE

DS)

USDOL & National

Crosswalk Center

Employers

In FloridaDEMAND SUPPLY

17

www.flbog.edu

SOCTitles & Codes

Computer and

Information Research Scientists(15-1111)

Computer Systems Analysts

(15-1121)

Computer Programmers

(15-1131)

Software Developers, Applications(15-1132)

Software Developers,

Systems Software(15-1133)

Database Administrator

s(15-1141)

Network and Computer Systems

Architects and

Administrators

(15-1142)

Computer Support

Specialists(15-1150)

Information Security Analysts and Web

Developers (15-1179,15-1122)

Computer Occupations, All Other(15-1199)

Associated Degree

CIP Codes

11.0101 11.0201 11.0102 11.0102 11.0101 11.0101 11.0103 11.0101 27.0301 14.3701

11.0103 11.0202 11.0103 11.0103 11.0802 11.1001 11.0701 11.0301 27.0304 52.1301

11.0501 11.0203 11.0104 11.0104 11.1003 11.1003 11.0901 11.0401 27.0501  11.0901 11.0299 11.0201 11.0201     11.1001 11.0701 27.0502  

  11.0701 11.0202 11.0202     11.1002 11.1005 27.0503  

  11.0803 11.0701 11.0401     11.1003 26.1103 27.0599  

  11.0804 11.0804 11.0701     11.1005 26.1104 52.1304  

  15.1204 14.0901 14.0901     43.0116 30.0801    

  51.0709 14.0903 14.0903       30.1601    

  52.1201 15.1204 15.1204       30.3001    

    26.1103         30.3101    

    51.2706         43.0116    

              51.2706    

18 Step 1 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysisfor Computer Occupations, SOC 15-11 (as an example)

CIP codes in RED are associated with more than one SOC code.

1st step: Identify the 6-Digit SOC/CIP relationships for Computer Occupations

www.flbog.edu

Step 2 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysisfor Computer Occupations (as an example)

6-DIGITSOC CODE 6-DIGIT SOC TITLE

PROJECTEDDEMAND

DUPLICATED SUPPLY*

15-1111 Computer and Information Research Scientists 18 1,160

15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts 865 1,157

15-1131 Computer Programmers 556 468

15-1132 Software Developers, Applications 651 1,112

15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software 537 1,118

15-1141 Database Administrators 222 652

15-1142Network and Computer Systems Architects and Administrators

629 652

15-1179Information Security Analysts and Web Developers (15-1122)

800 457

15-1799 Computer Occupations, All Other (15-1199) 150 660

 3-DIGITSOC CODE

3-DIGIT SOC TITLE TOTAL DEMANDUNDUPLICATED

SUPPLY

15-11 COMPUTER OCCUPATIONS (SOC 15-1100) 4,428 2,330**Note: Due to individual CIP codes being associated with more than one SOC code, considerable duplication of degree graduate counts occur at the six-digit SOC/CIP level. Rolling the analysis up to the three-digit SOC level provides a more accurate Gap Analysis of Demand/Supply.

19

2nd Step: Total Projected Demand and Determine Unduplicated Supply

www.flbog.edu

Which Emerging Businesses Should Be a First Priority for a Gap Analysis?

20

•Aviation & Aerospace•Clean Technology

SolarBiofuelsStorageOceanSmart GridAdvanced Materials & ProductsGreen BuildingsWaterAir & Environment

•Financial/Professional Services•Homeland Security/Defense

•Information TechnologyModeling, Simulation, and TrainingPhotonics/OpticsDigital MediaSoftware & Computer System DesignComputer & MicroelectronicsTelecommunications

•Life SciencesBiotechMedical DevicesPharmaceuticalsHealth Care

www.flbog.edu

Part EThe Longer-Term Future for Florida?

21

www.flbog.edu

Re-cap: Florida’s National Rankings22

% of 18-24 yr. olds enrolled in college: 31st

High school to college continuation rate: 38th

% of 2010 population with a bachelor’s or higher: 37th

Bachelor’s degrees per 18-24yr population: 34th

Per capita gross domestic product: 40th

Per capita net earnings: 45th

Knowledge jobs in 2010 New Economy Index: 33rd

www.flbog.edu

Case Examples (Baccalaureate Level)

SOC Code SOC Title 2012 Base

Employment

Additional Demand Needed: Benchmarking Florida’s Workforce to Other Indicators

Top 5 Occupational

Density)

Top 10 Occupational

Density

National Average

Occupational Density

Big 4 Occupational

Density

High Performing

Occupational Density

113021Computer and

Information Systems

Managers8,200 2,600 1,950 1,300 1,100 2,200

132011 Accountants and Auditors 81,400 60 -300 -1,700 -700 -500

113021 Financial Managers 18,200 3,300 2,500 1,400 1,600 2,100

Source: Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center. Projected Demand for Labor by Occupation (2012-2010). Occupations Requiring Bachelor’s Degree, sorted by Annual Total Openings (Growth and Replacement) BLS Education Codes.

23

www.flbog.edu

SOURCE: Projections Central - State Occupational Projections

Workforce DemandIs Florida’s Projected Workforce Demand Competitive with Other States?

24

2008-2018 JOB PROJECTIONS BY STATE & BY EDUCATION LEVELProjected Total Job Openings (New & Replacement) as a Percentage of Total Jobs in 2008

Educational Levels United States

BIG10 California Florida Georgia Illinois Michigan New YorkNorth

CarolinaOhio Texas

Less than high school 38% 39% 40% 35% 45% 38% 35% 35% 39% 34% 46%

High school diploma or equivalent 29% 28% 28% 25% 33% 28% 26% 23% 28% 25% 35%

Some college, no degree 41% 38% 34% 34% 49% 38% 39% 30% 40% 36% 46%

Postsecondarynon-degree award 35% 34% 34% 32% 40% 33% 29% 30% 33% 32% 40%

Associate's degree 33% 32% 30% 29% 34% 34% 30% 27% 33% 31% 36%

Bachelor's degree 38% 35% 36% 32% 41% 35% 32% 28% 35% 32% 45%

Master's degree 40% 39% 39% 38% 48% 38% 35% 34% 36% 34% 51%

Doctoral or professional degree 38% 35% 37% 33% 38% 34% 32% 27% 41% 32% 42%

ALL LEVELS 34% 33% 34% 30% 38% 33% 30% 28% 33% 29% 40%

More than 105% of BIG 10 +/-5% of BIG 10 Less than 95% of BIG 10

www.flbog.edu

Questions and Next Steps

1. Is the gap analysis method appropriate?a. Focus first on under-supply relative to projected demand

b. Use six-digit SOCs and CIPs, but aggregate at the three-digit SOC levels

c. Use the 24 workforce regions to customize demand

2. Should we accept the status quo for baccalaureate degree production . . . . or consider a more ambitious, competitive future for Florida?

25