what should the governor do about jobs sherwin keynote at 2010 game changers conference
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Keynote presentation at the 2010 California Game Changers ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
Cleantech, Climate, and Jobs
What Should the Governor Do?
1
California
GAMEchangers Conference
Elton B. Sherwin November 17, 2010
Immediate Problem
12% Unemployment
Construction-related trades
much higher
2.3 million unemployed
2
Longer Term
Very serious problem
climate change
Multiple impacts on
California and
California businesses
3
Aim Today
Convince You That Solution Is
Standing In Front Of Us
Building efficiency
Existing buildings
Create jobs
Create investment
Protect planet
Grading buildings
A+ to F
4
5 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
San Jose
San
Francisco
Vallejo
San Rafael
Oakland
7
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Foster City
East Palo Alto Menlo Park
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
Silicon
Valley
8
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Moffett Field
237
Sun,
Google,
and, Cisco
all at risk
9
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Vallejo
North Bay 16 Inches
of Sea Rise
10 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Richmond
North Bay 16 Inches
of Sea Rise
San Rafael
Larkspur
Corte Madera
11
July Temperatures
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation
California’s
agricultural
regions will be
hard hit
12
Midcentury
Increase of 5 Degrees Fahrenheit
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation
5+
13
Could See Increases of 10 to 14
Degree Fahrenheit in Central Valley*
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”
Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
10+
14
Smaller snowpack
More water shortages
Less water for agriculture
“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”
Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
15
Heat Waves in Los Angeles
Basin Will Be Much More
Frequent
Dan Steinberg, Associated Press
So What Should the
Governor Do?
16
Letter to Fictional Governor
Makes 55
recommendations
17
Only Five Involve Taxes or Fees
1. DMV fees proportional to oil imports
Gas guzzlers have higher DMV fees
2. Carbon tax on inefficient light bulbs
3. 10¢ bottle tax
4. Congestion pricing on all freeways
5. Mandatory Energy Savings Account for
inefficient buildings
18
Blue State
Recommendations
Fifty With No Fees or Taxes
Pool pumps
Window films
Motor controls
Smart lighting
Building tune ups
Thermal storage on air conditioners
Green building code recommendations
Research priorities
Nighttime electric rates 19
Pay for themselves
Not being done
20
Focus on Buildings
21
Why Buildings
America has:
Over 50 million inefficient buildings
Upgrades pay for themselves
Millions of out-of-work construction workers
22
Buildings are the Largest
Source of CO2
in America
More than all cars, trucks and
planes added together
23
Building energy consumption
is almost 40% of U.S. CO2
emissions*
*Mitigating Climate Change: What America’s Building Industry Must Do
Mahadev Raman. Using DOE data
24
Create Jobs by
Improving Building Efficiency
25
Need to Improve Existing Buildings
Retail
Commercial
Schools
Government
Residential
26
It is Not Happening
Unable to Connect the Dots
Over 50 million buildings that need
upgrades
Upgrades pay for themselves in reduced
utility bills
Millions of unemployed construction
workers
Reduced utility bills would pay their salaries
27
70% to 80% Energy Used in
Buildings Is Wasted
German Passive House uses 1/7 the
energy of US code
Why cannot America do this?
28
29
Recommendation:
Grade Our Buildings
A-
55 Recommendations
Two most important
Reduce air pollution
Soot, methane, ozone,
carbon monoxide, etc.
Grade buildings
30
Analyzed 12 Different Building Energy
Labels and Their Associated Rating
Methodologies
Recommended Label In Monthly Utility Bill
C-
B+
Electricity**
Gas**
*125 is highest score
1 is lowest
Compared to all federal buildings in
America (See Inverted Scale with Progressive Weighting)
** The energy grade is determined
comparing this building to other similar
buildings in similar climates
74 *
Image from iStockphoto
Peer Rating
• Similar building types – Office to office
– Hospital to hospital
• In similar climates
• Top 20% get As A+ reserved for net zero
• Bottom 20% get Fs
• Include + and –
• Get the best of either per sq. ft. or per person
National Rating
• National standard
– Intuitive: scores above
80 are good, below 70
are poor
• 125 minus weighted EUI
• Source energy (per sq ft.)
– Combines natural gas,
oil and electricity
– All electricity weighted
at national average
What Would Happen?
Put a grade in monthly utility bill
Mail window sticker quarterly
Optional for the building owner to display
36
What Would Happen?
Hotels with As get more business
Hotels with Ds would upgrade
Energy efficiency would be important
Some businesses and employees would
hunt down their energy hogs
37
What Would Happen?
Best energy auditors become very popular
Backlog of work upgrading:
Lighting systems
Windows
Cooling towers
Insulation
Fans, pumps, and motor controls
Building controls, VAV boxes, etc.
38
What Would Happen?
Millions of new jobs
Skills would improve
Burn less coal and natural gas
Send less money out-of-state to buy
hydrocarbons
Spend more money locally
Efficient products outsell inefficient
products
39
Why This Label
Grades motivate change + and - reward small
improvements
Does not require audits Universal participation
Automatic monthly updates
Fair: works for all sizes of buildings
Drive dramatic reductions in energy consumption
Need better Labels on Products
42
Also
Need More Information On-line
43
www.energyrating.gov.au 1
Brand Refrigerators-
Freezers
Model
Total
Volume
(litres)
Energy
Consumption
(kWh/annum)
10 Yr
Energy
Cost
Star Rating
DAEWOO FRN-U20__I 603 515 $875 *****
WHIRLPOOL 6E_2__XR_ 640 614 $1,043 *****
SAMSUNG SRS767DGB 768 731 $1,242 ****
GENERAL
ELECTRIC PCG25
GSG25MIP__ 761 729 $1,239 ****
1 There is much to like about the Australian government’s site, foremost is showing the ten-year cost of
energy. I like it even better than showing the five-year costs.
The site also leaves old appliances on the web site, even when they are no longer sold in stores.
This is enormously helpful, not only to users of eBay, but also for energy auditors and building
owners.
The site also grades products, which is good. Unfortunately, the Australians give products one or
two stars that would earn a “D” or “F” under the scheme I proposed earlier (page 184).
I would purchase a product with one or two stars. I would never bring a product home with a
“D” or “F” on the label. Grades work; stars and happy faces do not. That is why we stop
giving stars in elementary school and switch to grades.
I predict that every foreign appliance and consumer electronics company will lobby against
grades, forgetting that they already sell graded products in Europe, and some will actually
convince lawmakers that grades are “too hard.” It is amazing how many “capitalists” do not seem
to like competition.
Back to the topic at hand, it would be great if the DOE’s new web site could help find “plug
compatible” new, replacement products and calculate breakeven points: Which newer products
are the same size? What new refrigerator is exactly the same size as the old one? What new attic
fan will exactly fit in the cutout created for the old fan? How much more efficient are the new
products, compared to the one I have installed? Is the old product so wasteful that one should
replace it immediately?
The DOE does not have to do all this research. Energy auditors and average Americans will
provide much of this information.
Also
Utility Bills are the Single Best
Yardstick
Ensure green buildings disclose utility bills
Start grading buildings based on
ACTUAL ENERGY USE
44
Summary Recommendations
1. Grade buildings: A+ to F
Optional quarterly window stickers
2. Disclose energy consumption of all
buildings claiming to be green
Include all government buildings and
builders requesting variances
Identify the architect
45
In Closing
Building grades will motivate action:
1. Create private investment
2. Create jobs
3. Improve skills
4. Encourage innovation
5. Reduce emissions
46
A+
For more information: www.EltonSherwin.com
Information on building grades:
http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations
Specifically two presentations:
http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6
47
Appendix
48
World-
wide Next
20 Years
(Soot)
Soot and Smoke Also
Damage Our Environment
McKinsey
49
Pay for Themselves “Negative” Costs
50
Real Costs
51
Coal
52
Savings “Pay” for Most
Non-coal Upgrades
53
=
Pay for Themselves “Negative” Costs
Building-Related:
Residential lighting
Residential electronics
Commercial insulation
Motor systems
Residential appliances
Water heaters
Air conditioning
Building “tune-ups”
HVAC zoning
Fan/pump controls
Non-Building:
Standby power
Industrial efficiency
Hybrid cars
Landfill methane
Waste recycling
Agriculture nutrient
management
Agriculture tillage/residue
54
McKinsey, DOE, UK Gov.
Author’s experience
Real Costs Less Expensive Capturing CO2 From Coal-fired Power
Agriculture-Related:
Cropland management
Grassland management
Soil restoration
Protecting rainforests
Pastureland afforestation
Reforestation
Manure management
Feedstock substitution
Fertilizer management
Non-Agriculture:
Ultra-efficient new
buildings
Plug-in Hybrids
Concentrating solar
Solar PV
Wind
55
McKinsey, DOE, UK Gov.
Author’s experience
Questions
More Information:
www.EltonSherwin.com
eltonsherwin.wordpress.com
facebook.com/EltonSherwin
58
McKinsey 2007
59
Sector Specific Abatement Cost Curves
Agriculture in the UK
60
The First Report of the UK Committee on Climate Change
December 2008
61
US DOE. CO2 in America. Excludes other greenhouse pollutants: methane,
Soot, CFCs, etc. Also excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from Agriculture.
CO2 Emissions:
Circled sources are
mostly buildings
62
Which Building Types Use the Most
Energy Overall?
63
Which Building use the Most
Energy per Square Foot?
64
Electricity Consumption in
Healthcare Buildings
65
Checklists www.EltonSherwin.com What Can Cities and Counties Do?
Simple Green Building Code Homes
Commercial Property
What are Your Company’s Top Energy Wasters? Schools and public buildings
What are Your Home’s Top Energy
Wasters?
How Do I Find the Energy Hogs in My House?
Reducing Your Carbon Footprint
www.Amazon.com
66
Encourage the Disclosure of
Building Energy Consumption
Cities have leverage:
Requesting permit
Requesting variance
Bidding for city business
Selling building
Challenge other city governments
Prohibit “green” or efficiency claims without disclosure
Give window stickers to all homes and businesses who disclose their data
Cities can encourage disclosure
• Last 2 yrs utility bills
• Next 10 yrs
Use Signage Laws to Ban Advertising
Without Disclosure
Energy Saving
Green Home (Data not disclosed)
Require
• Last 2 yrs utility bills
• Next 10 yrs
68
Why Grades Based on Energy?
Energy => CO2 => Environmental Damage
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Awards based on
anything other than
actual energy
consumption are not
helpful.
69
http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations
http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6
Also, see
Response to the
National Energy Rating Program for Homes
Request for Information