What’s Happening Out TherePolitical Scene Fall 2015

Presentation to Pacific Northwest Waterways Association

By John Horvick, DHM Research

October 8, 2015

2

Public’sMood

HorseRace

Economy &

Labor

Trade Q&AChanging Communities

3

HorseRace

Trump 24%

Carson 14%

Fiorina/Rubio 10%Bush 9%

Cruz 6%

Christie 4%Paul/Kasich/Huckabee 3%

Republican NominationHuffington Post

June 2015 October 2015

Republican NominationMarkets (PredicIt, Betfair)

0.000.000.000.010.01

0.020.02

0.040.04

0.050.070.07

0.110.26

0.30

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

George PatakiScott Walker

Lindsey GrahamRick Santorum

Bobby JindalRand Paul

Mike HuckabeeJohn Kasich

Chris ChristieTed Cruz

Ben CarsonCarly Fiorina

Donald TrumpJeb Bush

Marco Rubio

Prediction Market Prices

Republican NominationMarkets (PredicIt, Btffair)

0.000.000.000.010.01

0.020.02

0.040.04

0.050.070.07

0.110.26

0.30

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

George PatakiScott Walker

Lindsey GrahamRick Santorum

Bobby JindalRand Paul

Mike HuckabeeJohn Kasich

Chris ChristieTed Cruz

Ben CarsonCarly Fiorina

Donald TrumpJeb Bush

Marco Rubio

Prediction Market Prices

Establishment: 64%

Outsider: 30%

Democratic NominationHuffington Post

Clinton 43%

Sanders 25%

Biden 20%

ChafeeO’MalleyWebb

1-2%

June 2015 October 2015

Democratic NominationMarkets (PredicIt, Betfair)

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.15

0.17

0.63

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

Jim Webb

Lincoln Chafee

Al Gore

Elizabeth Warren

Martin OMalley

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Hillary Clinton

Prediction Market Prices

17%

28%

24%

22%

40%

31%

26%

33%

36%

31%

19%

13%

20%

18%

12%

17%

19%

13%

8%

7%

16%

14%

11%

17%

10%

Job Performance

Approve strongly Approve somewhat Oppose somewhat Oppose strongly Don't know

Pope Francis

Net +

+52

Ron Wyden

Kate Brown

Patty Murray

Jay Inslee

+32

+24

+22

+12

17%

30%

29%

29%

33%

29%

41%

42%

37%

40%

43%

42%

46%

53%

35%

33%

32%

31%

16%

23%

24%

19%

20%

22%

19%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Large business

Small business

Balancing the state budget

Government spending

Taxes

Earthquake preparedness

Energy

Needs of those in the middle class

Transporation

K-12 education

Health care

Housing

Needs of those in poverty

Party Trust

Republicans Democrats

17%

30%

29%

29%

33%

29%

41%

42%

37%

40%

43%

42%

46%

53%

35%

33%

32%

31%

16%

23%

24%

19%

20%

22%

19%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Large business

Small business

Balancing the state budget

Government spending

Taxes

Earthquake preparedness

Energy

Needs of those in the middle class

Transporation

K-12 education

Health care

Housing

Needs of those in poverty

Party Trust

Republicans Democrats

13

Public’sMood

All things considered, do you feel things in Oregon are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

64%

34%

49%

36%

52%58%

21%

51%

35%

50%

31% 31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Right Direction Wrong Track

26%

30%

35%

40%

43%

44%

53%

58%

73%

United States (October)

Arizona (August)

Colorado (May 2014)

California (May)

Washington (June)

Idaho (July)

Nevada (May)

Oregon (September)

Utah (January)

Right Direction by State

25%

12%

29%

32%

Much closer Somewhat closer

54%

The political process of electing representatives and passing laws is messy, but in the end it works best for everyone.

44%

Political Process Good for Everyone or Good for the Powerful?

The political process is horribly broken and is rigged to benefit the most powerful

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES

K-12 public educationJobs & the economy

Taxes and government spendingRoads and transportationCrime and public safety

Environmental protectionPoverty and homelessness

Income inequality and minimum wageAbortion, same sex marriage, presidential elections

18

VOTER KNOWLEDGECannot name the three branches of government

Cannot name the source of their drinking water supply

Cannot names the candidates for governor or senator

50%

50%+

60%+

19

Economy&

Labor

20

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Oregon Unemployment Rate

11.6%

6.1%

US: 5.1%Washington: 5.3%Idaho: 4.2%

Concern about personal financial situation

21

66% 71% 71%65%

52%62% 60%

March 2011 September2011

January 2012 April 2013 September2014

December 2014 April 2015

Somewhat/very

22

23

Support for Minimum $15 Minimum Wage: Oregon & Washington

26%

29%

13%

16%

18%

14%

39%

37%

4%

5%

Oregon

Washington

Support -- strongly Support -- somewhat Oppose -- somewhat Oppose -- strongly Don't know

24

~30%

~20%

$11 - $12

Support for Minimum Wage Increases in Oregon and Washington

do not support any increase in the minimum wage

Support increasing minimum wage to $15+

Median preferred minimum wage

Approve or Disapprove of Labor Unions (US)(Gallup)

48%

52% 52% 52%54% 53%

58%

45%

41%42% 42%

39%38%

36%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Approve Disapprove

29%

29%

23%

17%

2%

Approve or disapprove of labor unions

Approve stongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove stongly Don't know

Approval

Total: 58%

Dem: 86%NAV/Other: 62%

Rep: 16%

27

Trade

47% 43%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

How important for Oregon is it to supportdevelopment of international trade: not

at all important, not very important,somewhat important, or very important?

Not at all important Not very important Somewhat important Very important Don’t know

Importance of Trade: Portland Metro

View Foreign Trade Mostly as an Opportunity for the US(Gallup)

51%

38% 36%

47%

66%

61%

55% 56%

46%48%

51% 51%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Democrats Republicans

Bush Obama

Support for Coal and Oil Transport

21%

18%

35%

29%

15%

18%

8%

16%

15%

19%

Support-strongly Support-somewhat Oppose-somewhat Oppose-strongly Don't know

Do you support or oppose transporting coal through the Pacific Northwest and exporting it to other countries from ports in Oregon and Washington?

Do you support or oppose transporting oil through the Pacific Northwest to reach West Coast refineries, with the refined oil being used for domestic purposes?

31

ChangingCommunities

43

35

33

31

24

42

35

29

32

27

20

White

Asian

Native American

African American

Hispanic

Two or more

Oregon National

Median Age by Race

US Median Income and Net Wealth by Race (2014/2013 dollars, US Census/Federal Reserve)

$35,000

$41,000

$58,000

$67,000

$11,000

$14,000

$134,000

$91,000

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic

White

Asian

Net Wealth Income

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

All Oregonians Adult Oregonians All Registered 2 of 4 4 of 4

Median Age by Vote History

37

Q&A