28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Brian Vad Mathiesenbvm@plan.aau.dk / @brianvad

Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group, Aalborg University

Heat Roadmap Europe - Democratizising knowledge bottom-up and top-down, Key findings and recommendations for decarbonising H&C Sector

European Commission , Decarb Heat High-Level Round Table on the Decarbonisation of the Heating Sector

Brussels, November 28, 2018

www.heatroadmap.eu / www.4dh.eu / www.reinvestproject.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU / @4DHresearch / @REInvestEU

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

What does the future bring for you?

• More or less district heating?• Net zero emission buildings?• Passive houses?• Gas‐electricity hybrid heat pumps?• What types of district heating are fit for the 

future? • Should district heating decrease or increase?• Who should own and profit from heating and  

district heating system?

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology

Data profling and mapping Energy System analyses

District Heating Potential

District Heating Resources

Building Demand Savings Potential

Costs of Making Savings

BAU (References)

Heat Roadmap Europe Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

Energy System Potential

Energy System Resources

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Heat synergies map in PETA4 ‐ Netherlands

• Heat demands: 296 PJ/y

• Excess heat: 560 PJ/y

• District heating share: 6%

• Renewable energy in heating: 3%

• Not a Technical barrier to improve energy efficiency?

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)

Heat Demand Suitable for DH 

10 PJ/Year

Excess Heat35 PJ/Year

WP2: Pan‐European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu

10 km

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Identifying the Balance Between Supply and Savings

• Savings, Residential. Services and Industry

• Supply curve includes• DH investment (heat

density)• Excess heat potential in

specific areas• Fuel and other heat

supply costs• Where DH not feasible:

• Heat pumps

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Balance between savings and supply

• Reductions in demand do not affect the HP / DH balance and vice versa (DH more robust)

• Industry and service savingsgenerally feasible

• Residential savings differbetween countries

• DH feasible in all countries but different levels

France: total energy system

costs (M€/year)

Residential sector space heating savings (additional to a 30% reduction already in the Baseline)

0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Perc

enta

ge o

f m

arke

t sh

are

co

vere

d by

DH

0% 175532 175582 175266 175452 175883 175978 5% 175219 175263 174932 175104 175529 175608 11% 174875 174898 174548 174699 175099 175162 18% 174566 174570 174197 174329 174706 174752 26% 174327 174317 173922 174037 174394 174418

34% 174197 174168 173752 173852 174191 174200

42% 174190 174142 173709 173789 174107 174101 51% 174400 174334 173878 173940 174240 174216 59% 175121 175038 174562 174604 174885 174844 68% 176559 176454 175961 175986 176246 176185 79% 185911 185790 185275 185282 185524 185443

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Recommended development of thermal demands

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Czec

h R

epub

lic

Finl

and

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Hung

ary

Italy

Neth

erla

nds

Pola

nd

Rom

ania

Spai

n

Swed

en

Unite

dKi

ngdo

m

HRE1

4

% c

hang

e in

del

iver

ed sp

ace

heat

ing

dem

ands

from

201

5

BL 2050 HRE 2050

• Current policy: 25% reduction in space heating

• HRE: 30% reduction in space heating

• Current policy: annual refurbishment rate between 0,7% and 1,0%

• HRE: annual refurbishment rate at 1,5% to 2%, AND deeper renovations when they occur 

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Heat pump & district heating shares of heat market

• Building HPs• Increase in share from 1% to about half of the heat market mainly in rural areas

• DH supply• Increase from 12% to cover the other half of the heat market mainlyin urban areas

• Individuel fuel boilers and electric heating for heating shouldbe limited as far as possible

• All natural gas boilers are phased out

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Minimum Recommended DH levels of the total heat market pr. country

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

AT BE CZ DE ES FI FR HU IT NL PL RO SE UK HRE 14

% o

f hea

t dem

and

supp

lied

by D

H

ꓕꓔ Interval of feasible DH share in HRE 2050 Baseline 2015 Minimum recommended share of DH in HRE 2050

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Renewable Energy vs. District Heating

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0% 20% 40% 60%Renewab

le Energy Sh

are in Heating & Coolin

g (%

)

District Heating Share (%)

Renewable Energy vs. District Heating

Austria Belgium

Bulgaria Croatia

Cyprus Czech Republic

Denmark Estonia

Finland France

Germany Greece

Hungary Ireland

Italy Latvia

Lithuania Luxembourg

Malta Netherlands

Poland Portugal

Romania Slovak Republic

Slovenia Spain

Sweden United Kingdom

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Energy system effects 

• Energy Efficiency first – from two sides

• Use renewable energy capacity better

• Flexibility and storage

• Reducing pressure on the power sector compared to full electrification

• Much more in peak capacity than in grid

• Decarbonise the total system cheaper (70 €M/Year)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 2015 BL 2050 CD 2050 HRE 2050

CO2

emis

sion

s, M

tonn

es/y

ear

Total Other sectors Non-energy fuels Energy and industry

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Total energy system costs

• Reduction of ~70 B€/year

• Increase in investment costs

• Job creation

• Reduced energy pricefluctuation

• Decrease in fuel costs

• Lower dependence on import of fossil fuels

• No Natural gas for heating

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Conventionally decarbonized Heat Roadmap Europe

Annu

al C

ost B

reak

down

, bill

ion

EUR

2050

Annual investment CO2 Fuel Operation & Maintenance

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Energy StoragePump Hydro Storage

175 €/kWh (Source: Electricity Energy Storage Technology Options: A White Paper Primer on Applications, Costs, and Benefits. Electric Power Research

Institute, 2010)

Natural Gas Underground Storage0.05 €/kWh

(Source: Current State Of and Issues Concerning Underground Natural Gas Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory

Commission, 2004)

Oil Tank0.02 €/kWh

(Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage Tank.

2013)

Thermal Storage1-4 €/kWh

(Source: Danish Technology Catalogue, 2012)

28‐11‐2018

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

Thermal Storage6200 m3 Thermal Storage

2500 €/MWh (Skagen: 6200 m3 for 5.4 mio. DKK)

0.16 m3 Thermal Storage300.000 €/MWh

(Private house: 160 literfor 15000 DKK)

200,000 m3 Thermal Storage500 €/MWh

(Vojens: 200,000 m3 for 30 mio. DKK)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3

Pri

ce (

€/M

Wh

)

Thermal storage: Price and Size

4 m3 Thermal Storage40,000 €/MWh

(Private outdoor: 4000 m3 for 50,000 DKK)

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.

We have 28 regulatory experimentsin Europe to learn from!