what’s happening with food price inflation? working draft
TRANSCRIPT
What’s happening with food price inflation?
WORKING DRAFTJune 2008
LONG TERMLooking at the most long term data available, Jan 1960 to May 2008, we can see that the 70’s were much worse
Change in FPI vs. month prior – Jan 1960 to May 2008(% h i CPI i d 1960 2008)(% change in CPI index; 1960-2008)
4.0%
Ouch1970’s “stagflation”
3.0%
1970 s stagflation
Get hard
2.0%
Get hard
1.0%
0.0%
Jan-
60Fe
b-61
Mar
-62
Apr
-63
May
-64
Jun-
65Ju
l-66
Aug
-67
Sep-
68O
ct-6
9N
ov-7
0Ja
n-72
Feb-
73M
ar-7
4A
pr-7
5M
ay-7
6Ju
n-77
Jul-7
8A
ug-7
9Se
p-80
Oct
-81
Nov
-82
Jan-
84Fe
b-85
Mar
-86
Apr
-87
May
-88
Jun-
89Ju
l-90
Aug
-91
Sep-
92O
ct-9
3N
ov-9
4Ja
n-96
Feb-
97M
ar-9
8A
pr-9
9M
ay-0
0Ju
n-01
Jul-0
2A
ug-0
3Se
p-04
Oct
-05
Nov
-06
Jan-
08
-1.0%
LONG TERM INDEX MOVEMENT 1990-2006Looking at the most long term detailed group level data available, being the June 1999 FPI index, from January 1990 to June 2006 we see that the biggest movers are meat/fish and produce
Previous Food price index (FPI)(i d J 1999 1000 J 1990 J 2006)(index; June 1999=1000; Jan 1990-June 2006)
1,250.0
1,300.0
Meat & fish (red)
1,150.0
1,200.0 Fruit & vegetables (green)Restaurant/RTE (brown)
( )
Grocery & non-alc beverages (light blue)
CPI Index (dark blue)
1,050.0
1,100.0
900 0
950.0
1,000.0
F&VM&F
800.0
850.0
900.0 M&FGroceryRestIndex
Source: Statistics New Zealand data; Coriolis analysis
Jan-
90Ju
l-90
Jan-
91Ju
l-91
Jan-
92Ju
l-92
Jan-
93Ju
l-93
Jan-
94Ju
l-94
Jan-
95Ju
l-95
Jan-
96Ju
l-96
Jan-
97Ju
l-97
Jan-
98Ju
l-98
Jan-
99Ju
l-99
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06
LONG TERM INDEX MOVEMENT JUN 1999- MAY 2008Looking at the revised June 2006 index, from Jun 1999 to May 2008, we see the jumpy, lumpy non-smooth movement of the index other than restaurant/takeaway foods
Current Food price index (FPI)(i d J 2006 1000 J 1999 M 2008)(index; June 2006=1000; June 1999-May 2008)
1090
Meat & fish (red)Non-alcoholic beverages (orange)
Grocery (light blue)
CPI Index (dark blue)
1040Fruit & vegetables (green)
Restaurant/RTE (brown)( )
940
990
840
890
Fruit & vegMeat & fish
740
790
Meat & fishGroceryNA beveragesRestaurant & RTEIndex
Source: Statistics New Zealand data; Coriolis analysis
Jun-
99
Oct
-99
Feb-
00
Jun-
00
Oct
-00
Feb-
01
Jun-
01
Oct
-01
Feb-
02
Jun-
02
Oct
-02
Feb-
03
Jun-
03
Oct
-03
Feb-
04
Jun-
04
Oct
-04
Feb-
05
Jun-
05
Oct
-05
Feb-
06
Jun-
06
Oct
-06
Feb-
07
Jun-
07
Oct
-07
Feb-
08
CHANGE VS. MONTH PRIORLooking at change versus month prior we see the biggest month-on-month swings are again in produce (fruit & veg) and meat
Monthly percentage movement of sub-group vs. month prior(% h i i d J 1990 M 2008)(% change in index; Jan 1990-May 2008)
7.0%
9.0%Fruit & vegMeat & fishGroceryNA beverages
3 0%
5.0%
NA beveragesRestaurant & RTEIndex
1.0%
3.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
Jul-9
9
Oct
-99
Jan-
00
Apr
-00
Jul-0
0
Oct
-00
Jan-
01
Apr
-01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Jan-
02
Apr
-02
Jul-0
2
Oct
-02
Jan-
03
Apr
-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan-
04
Apr
-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Jan-
07
Apr
-07
Jul-0
7
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Apr
-08
CHANGE VS. SAME MONTH PREVIOUS YEARLooking at change versus same month year prior we see the biggest month-on-month swings are again in produce (fruit & veg) and meat; however we do see a surge in “grocery” prices
Monthly percentage movement of sub-group vs. same month previous year(% h i i d J 1990 M 2008)(% change in index; Jan 1990-May 2008)
20.0%
25.0%Fruit & veg
Meat & fish
%
15.0%
Grocery
NA beverages
Restaurant & RTE
Index
5.0%
10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
Jun-
00
Sep-
00
Dec
-00
Mar
-01
Jun-
01
Sep-
01
Dec
-01
Mar
-02
Jun-
02
Sep-
02
Dec
-02
Mar
-03
Jun-
03
Sep-
03
Dec
-03
Mar
-04
Jun-
04
Sep-
04
Dec
-04
Mar
-05
Jun-
05
Sep-
05
Dec
-05
Mar
-06
Jun-
06
Sep-
06
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun-
07
Sep-
07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08