What’s Hot and What’s Not?Changes in development thinking in

the last 5 years

Duncan Green2013

Global Financial Crisis

Global Food Price Spikes

The Arab Spring

Climate Chaos

4 Trends in how we think about Development

• Changing understanding of Poverty• Rising importance of Inequality• Working in Complex Systems• Power and Theories of Change

What is Poverty?

Implications for Aid & Development Agencies

• Change your metrics• Tackling hard core chronic poverty – disabled,

elderly, remote – needs different policies• Care economy (food price spike, financial

crisis)• Smoothing/avoiding/coping with Volatility is

more important than we thought• Resilience = the new fuzzword

Inequality

Globally, it’s the 2%

G20 doing badly

LICs doing better (on average)

‘The Palma’ v Gini: Birth of an Index?

• Ratio of income of top 10% to bottom 40%• Falling v Rising Palma index– X3 in reducing hunger and extreme poverty– X2 in progress on access to improved water– +30% in progress on U5MR

• Worth pursuing?

Implications for Aid & Development Agencies

• Metrics: Gini or Palma?• Multidimensionality: inequality of shame?• Get past outcome v opportunity• Taxation/Domestic Resource Mobilization• Relationships, power and politics• But v tricky politics, esp for official agencies

Complex Systems v causal chains

The power and change cycle

Power Analysis

Change Hypothesis

Monitor, Learn, Adapt

Select Change Strategies

So What? • Fast feedback + institutions to respond• Identify and publicise problems, but stop short of

solutions (Matt Andrews, PDIA)• Possible approaches– Enabling environment > specific projects (norms, rights,

access to info)– Multiple experiments: Tanzania– Convening and Brokering: Tajikistan

• Results for grown ups • Rules of thumb, not best practice & toolkits

Broader Implications• Who to employ? – Searchers v planners– Local and rooted v global and nomadic

• How to keep/build political support given: – Loss of control– Limits to attribution– Higher failure rates

• Demonstrate impact, compare with other sectors (business, military)?

“In telling us what can be achieved byordinary people through organised

action, this book generates hope even as it enhances understanding of what

is involved in the removal of poverty.”Amartya Sen

But blogging is more fun....