when anecdote trumps evidence

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When Anecdote Trumps Evidence Brian J Ward Colloque Blue 2013

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When Anecdote Trumps Evidence. Brian J Ward Colloque Blue 2013. WHAT !! Another talk about vaccine hesitancy?. raspeberry.blogspot.com. Changing Perception of Vaccines. Angel Dust. 10 8 6 4 2 0. Tools of the Devil. Vaccines are ‘Good’. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Brian J Ward Colloque Blue 2013

Page 2: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

WHAT !!Another talk

about vaccine hesitancy?

raspeberry.blogspot.com

Page 3: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Changing Perception of Vaccines Angel Dust

Tools of the Devil

10

8

6

4

2

0

Page 4: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vaccines are ‘Good’

Vaccines are ‘Bad’

10

8

6

4

2

0

Page 5: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

unforgettablebeattt.blogspot.com

Page 6: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

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Yadayadayada VaccineYadayada Yada Yadayada

Sudden Death

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Page 7: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

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Yadayadayada VACCINEYadayada Yada Yadayada

SUDDEN DEATH

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Page 8: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shrinknextdoor.com

Page 9: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Is There a Debate?

cartoonstock.com

This depends uponhow you define the word ‘debate’ …

Page 10: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

The Committed and the Hesitant?

BlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlah

Page 11: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

bitchlifestyle.com

Page 12: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Demonizing the opposing view is rarely productive

colorlines.commarriedwithbusinessblog.comcanadafrancais.com

homosapienssaveyourearth.blogspot.com

Page 13: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

studyforwomen.blogspot.com

Page 14: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

eliotburdett.com

Perhaps We All Need A

‘Time-Out’?

Page 15: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

panchtatva-blog.blogspot.com

Page 16: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

What Do They See?

Page 17: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 18: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 19: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 20: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence
Page 21: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 22: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

fasttrack.nutoonpool.combest-of-web.comstartribune.com

Page 23: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Some Vaccines Are Now Blockbusters

Page 24: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Resources Devoted to Vaccine Programs (USA)

M Davis. Price as a double-edged sword in thegolden era of vaccines. Human Vaccines 2010

Page 25: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

fasttrack.nutoonpool.combest-of-web.comstartribune.com

Page 26: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Vaccine community should take the lead

in transparency

Page 27: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Conflict of Interest Statement (Last 5 Years)

Position in Pharma Medical Officer for Medicago Inc. (Oct 2011 - present)

Consulting Pfizer, Merck, Novartis, GSK, Sanofi Pasteur

MSSS, US Dept of Justice (Vaccine Compensation Programs)

Contracts Vaccine trials for virtually all companies

Shared Awards

Shared CIHR Team grant (Laval U, GSK)

CIHR-Industry grant (Medicago)

Shared CQDM grant (Medicago, Laval U, SNC Lavalin)

Occasional Speakers Honoraria

Pfizer, Sanofi Pasteur

Investments (sadly) Nil

Page 28: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

colourbox.com

Big Pharma Approach, Including‘Whatever the Market will Bear’

Pricing Strategies have a Cost

Page 29: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 30: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Are We Sending AClear Message?

Page 31: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Vaccine Organizationin Canada

Page 32: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Local Authorities Tend to beQuite Dogmatic

Page 33: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Sophisticated Parents Often Confronted by Mixed Messages

Page 34: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Aside from program issues, therereally aren’t many cogent arguments against some flexibility … • age at MMR or varicella (any vaccine) • number of doses - menC - HBV - HPV

Page 35: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Sloth, poor parenting and procrastinationmeant our 3 kids got MMR at 15, 16 and 18 months of age …

Why weren’t childservices called?

De Serres G et al. CID 2012)

Page 36: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

With vaccines, we are building our boat and sailing it at the same time

David Heymann, World Health Organization

nauticexpo.com

Page 37: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Absence of a National Program Great for Science

but has Consequences

Each Jurisdiction Needs to be More Humble (and

Flexible) about its Programs

senseiwisdom.com

Page 38: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

suethomas.ca

What possible excuse can there be for the lack of

a national vaccine registry in 2012?

Page 39: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 40: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

What Does the New Parent Experience?

Page 41: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

thehealthyhomeeconomist.com unicef.ca

Page 42: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

transcanadacoyote.blogspot.com

Needles are Not a Huge Factor … but they ARE a Factor for Some

Page 43: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Why are we Still Using this Medieval Tool?

• first used in Roman times • mostly for sucking stuff out (Egypt/Iraq) • 1844 - first subcutaneous injection with a hollow needle (Ireland) • 1853 - first ‘hypodermic’ syringe

for medical purposes (UK)

allposters.com

Page 44: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

There are many reasons to target development of NEEDLE-FREEvaccines: • taking the needle out of the equation • HCW safety • keeping ‘sharps’ out of environment • probably better immune responses

Mitragotri S. Immunization without needles. Nat Rev Immunol. 2005 Dec;5(12):905-16.

Page 45: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

The ‘It’s Good Enough’Attitude is Probably NOT Good Enough

For Vaccines

Page 46: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

shutterstock.com

Page 47: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Are we all too ‘invested’ in vaccine programs to respond appropriately

to problems?

Page 48: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

alaska-in-pictures.com

Our Defensive Reflexes are Well-Developed

Page 49: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Answer the following questions.YES or NO answers only:

YES NO

Measles vaccine uses a live (weakened) virus

This virus can persist for years

This vaccine can kill some children

This vaccine is probably as dangerous as OPV that we no longer use because of its risks

Major vaccine makers working on a safer measles vaccine?

Page 50: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

gettyimages.com

OK - I can see see a few hands raised to speak… but we’re not done yet

Page 51: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

More questions - same rules:YES NO

Adverse events can happen years post-vaccine

Vaccines licensed only after years of surveillance

Immunity after natural infection often for life

Immunity after vaccination is also lifelong

Some vaccines contaminated with animal viruses

Vaccine makers have monopolies on some products that are worth many millions of dollars

Governments & academics can independently confirm company claims for all vaccines

Page 52: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

These questions are obviously unfair and biased …

However - each ‘yes’ or ‘no’ has some truth in it.

Each is a building block of the anti-vaccine argument

Page 53: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

We’ve made safer vaccines for: • rabies • pertussis • polio • even smallpox

upmc-biosecurity.org

• Can’t neglect old vaccines chasing new targets • As we approach eradication of measles … will the current vaccine be safe enough?

Page 54: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

• Insist that products in Canada can be studied independently

• Work harder to understand how vaccines work and how adverse events occur

• Support programs to compensate those who are truly harmed

humboldtsentinel.com

Page 55: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

The Committed and the Hesitant?

BlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlahBlah

BlahBlah

Page 56: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

If We Don’t Like the ‘House’ that Vaccine Opponents have Built …

Page 57: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Perhaps We Should Work to Remove Some of the Bricks

that We’ve Given Them

Page 58: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

pediatrics.about.com

A First Step in Dealing with VaccineHesitancy Might be a Look in the Mirror

Page 59: When Anecdote Trumps Evidence

Questions &

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