when is the business aviation upturn coming and what … · when is the business aviation upturn...
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AEROSPACEINFORMATION
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When is the business aviation upturn coming and what role does the Mediterranean market play?
Mediterranean Business Aviation13th September 2013
Daniel Hall
Ascend Advisory
Flightglobal Group
Flightglobal and Ascend
Flightglobal business lines
Flightglobal Ascend – Global Offices
Overview
Europe and the Mediterranean
– What part do they play?
The global picture - The not so
good news
Med or the ROW? Who to
watch out for
Reasons to be positive –
Ascend’s outlook for the
business jet sector?
674 19,380Total
In service / stored
1,2902008 – Peak year for deliveries
8,417delivered
since Y2003
Business Jet Aviation Today – Global Fleet and Delivery Data
2012 Delivery Total
808Average p/yr (to end-2012)
5312003 – Low point for deliveries
Business Jets Globally – A Long Term Growth Market
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Nu
mb
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of
In-S
erv
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/ S
tore
d B
us
ine
ss
Je
ts
In-Service / Stored TotalSource: Ascend Online Fleets 2013 YTD end-Aug
Overview
Europe and the Mediterranean
– What part do they play?
The global picture - The not so
good news
Med or the ROW? Who to
watch out for
Reasons to be positive –
Ascend’s outlook for the
business jet sector?
European BizJet Fleet Inventory Growth…or not so
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
20
13
20
10
20
07
20
04
20
01
19
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
83
19
80
19
77
19
74
Europe In-Service & StoredSource: Ascend Online Fleets
Germany21%
UK19%
Austria13%France
9%
Switzerland9%
Portugal8%
Italy6%
Spain6%
Turkey5%
Russia4%
Top 10 Countries Operate 75% of the 2,792 European BizJet Fleet
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
0 10 20 30 40
Germany
UK
Austria
Swiss
Turkey
Malta
France
Russia
Denmark
Finland
Others
Operator Location of New Deliveries since Jan 2012
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Mediterranean Countries used in Ascend’s Analysis
1
3
3
4
4
4
4
8
10
12
19
21
27
29
30
33
53
114
121
134
189
Palestine
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Syria
Croatia
Monaco
Montenegro
Tunisia
Algeria
Cyprus
Libya
Lebanon
Slovenia
Morocco
Egypt
Greece
Israel
Malta
Turkey
Spain
Italy
France
ROW96%Med'
Countries4%
80% in a corporate role; 10% with Government / Heads of State, 10% Other
Mediterranean Fleet Growth – 823 bizjets in-service / stored today
Cyprus, 2 Morocco, 1
France, 8
Greece, 3
Monaco, 1
Italy, 5
Lebanon, 1
Malta, 10
Slovenia, 1
Spain, 2
Turkey, 11
Israel, 1
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
New deliveries since Jan 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
France - only Italy - only Egypt, Malta, Morocco, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey Med
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Citation II and Mustang have an 8% share of the total Mediterranean fleet
Largest Operators and Most Dominant Types
Citation Mustang ,
38Citation II ,
31
Citation XLS , 21
Falcon 50 , 21
Challenger 604, 20
Citation Sovereign
, 19
Falcon 2000 , 19
Falcon 7X , 19
Challenger 605, 18
Gulfstream G550 , 18
Top 10 Types by Fleet Size
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
22
19 19
1716
14
12 12 12 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
Top 10 Operators by Fleet Size
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Today’s fleet of 53 includes 9 bizliners and 20 Large / ULR aircraft
Since conference one year ago, fleet has doubled
How about Malta?
Business Jet Fleet has witnessed rapid growth since 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Established global fleet led by 112 x BBJ1 and 68 x ACJ319 aircraft
Embraer’s Lineage joined from 2007 – today numbers 19
Business Liner (‘Bizliner’) Jets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Y1998 Y1999 Y2000 Y2001 Y2002 Y2003 Y2004 Y2005 Y2006 Y2007 Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013
Business Liner Historical Fleet Trends (since Y1998)
Boeing BBJ3
Airbus ACJ320
Embraer Lineage
Airbus ACJ318
Boeing BBJ2
Airbus ACJ319
Boeing BBJ1
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Business Liner (‘Bizliner’) Jets
Africa3%
Asia-Pacific
20%
Europe26%
LATAM / Caribbean
8% Middle East25%
North America
15%
Unknown area3%
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Air Taxi / Charter
33%
Airline6%
Bank, SPC / Lessor
1%
Fractional Operator
2%
Military / Gov't Operator
16%OEM2%
Private / Gov't / Corporate
40%
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
Overview
Europe and the Mediterranean
– What part do they play?
The global picture - The not so
good news
Med or the ROW? Who to
watch out for
Reasons to be positive –
Ascend’s outlook for the
business jet sector?
Global New Deliveries – Not such a smooth history
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Nu
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New DeliveriesSource: Ascend Online Fleets
2013 YTD end-Aug
Challenger 300 remains the leader (just like in 2012) at 31 new deliveries
G550 (29), Global 6000 (24), Falcon 7X (23) and G650 (22) follow to signify
dominance of top-end types
New Business Jet Deliveries –Stable, but no recovery – yet
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Business Jet New Deliveries
North America EuropeLatin America and Caribbean Asia-PacAfrica Middle EastUnknown area Ascend 2013 Remaining Delivery Forecast
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
When looking at value of deliveries, large / heavy
segments become a ~50% share
Delivery trend shows move to larger sizes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2008 2012
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
De
live
rie
s
Delivery Year
Bizliner
Heavy
Medium
Light-Medium
Light
Entry Level
VLJ
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
H1 sales total of 1,550 versus 1,724 in H1 2012. High % (79) in North America versus an average of 72% over past six years
Second-hand Market Sales Transactions –Improvement, but not a great 2013 so far
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Business Jet Used Sales Transactions
North America Europe
Latin America and Caribbean Asia-Pac
Africa Middle East
Unknown areaSource: Ascend Online Fleets
The Downturn was Severe for all Segments
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Q1'07 Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3'13
Ma
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7
MARKET VALUE TRENDS — ALL SEGMENTS, RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q1 2007
VLJ, ENTRY, LIGHT LIGHT MID MED SUPER MID
LARGE HEAVY LARGE ULR BIZLINERSource: Ascend Online Values (V1)
Medium / Super Mid-Size Sector: Competition has shaped value trends
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Q1'07 Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3'13Ma
rke
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alu
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1 2
00
7
MARKET VALUE TRENDS — MEDIUM / SUPER MID-SIZE SECTOR. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q1 2007
2007 Citation X 2005 Falcon 2000 2007 Falcon 2000EX EASy
2007 IAI G200 2007 Challenger 300 2002 Challenger 604
2001 Falcon 900C 2002 Falcon 900EX 2007 Falcon 900EX EASySource: Ascend Online Values (V1)
Light / Mid-Size Sector: Split identified in recent years
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13
Ma
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1 2
01
2
MARKET VALUE TRENDS — LIGHT / MID-SIZE SECTOR. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q1 2012
2001 Citation Excel 2006 Citation XLS 2008 Citation XLS+ 2007 Citation Sovereign
2002 Hawker 800XP 2002 Learjet 45 2006 Learjet 45XR 2003 Learjet 60
2008 Learjet 60XR 2008 Hawker 900XP 2008 Hawker 850XP 2000 IAI Astra SPX
2009 Gulfstream G150 Source: Ascend Online Values (V1)
Overview
Europe and the Mediterranean
– What part do they play?
The global picture - The not so
good news
Med or the ROW? Who to
watch out for
Reasons to be positive –
Ascend’s outlook for the
business jet sector?
Business Jet Geographical Distribution
The US is still the largest market - by some distance…
North America64%
Europe15%
LATAM & Carib12%
Asia Pacific5%
Middle East2%
Africa2%
Unknown0%
US share alone is 61%
Emerging markets are driving fleet growth
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
China
United Kingdom
Venezuela
Austria
Hong Kong
Germany
India
Argentina
784
757
512
210
404
207
266
107
431
160
155
Absolute Fleet Growth 2007 - 2013
Op
era
tor
Co
un
try
Source: Ascend Online Fleets Top 10 omitting Number 1: USA. Growth of 1,227 a/c from 10,609 to 11,836
Fleet Size Today
Overview
Europe and the Mediterranean
– What part do they play?
The global picture - The not so
good news
Med or the ROW? Who to
watch out for
Reasons to be positive –
Ascend’s outlook for the
business jet sector?
NetJets - just over 200 on order incl 75 x CL350s & 42 x P300s
Over 100 with VistaJet – 28 x Global 6000s and 50 x Global 5000s
Reasons to be positive (particularly for Bombardier):
Large firm order backlogs from NetJets and VistaJet
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
NetJets VistaJet Source: Ascend Online Fleets
New models seek to stimulate demand
2013
• Learjet 70,75, Falcon 2000S & LXS
• Citation M2, Sovereign
2014
• Legacy 500, Eclipse 550
• Challenger 350, Lear 85
• HondaJet
2015
• Citation Latitude• Cirrus SF50, Legacy 450
2016• Global 7000 / 8000
2017/18
• Citation Longitude• BBJ-Max, Pilatus PC24
Forecast shift to the right – recovery not on as early as expected
Light segments forecast to take longer to recover
Steady Growth in Annual Deliveries Forecast
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Fo
rec
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t N
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Bu
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s J
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De
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Very Light Jet Entry Level Light Light/Medium Medium Heavy BizlinerSource: Ascend Online Fleets
Ascend and Business Aviation
Data & Information
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The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst the utmost
care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to
Ascend, its subsidiaries, their officers, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.
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