when machines think

Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

ca-global.org

When

Machine

Think

cochrane.org.uk

Thursday, 10 November 2011

The majority of human knowledge has been derived from collaborating with machines

✦ Details of the cosmos✦ Details of the atom✦ Decoding the genome✦ Decoding proteins✦ Evolutionary science✦ Weather prediction✦ The spread of disease✦ Biological operations✦ Network traffic flows✦ The physics of flight✦ Power generation✦ +++++


That knowledge is now being shared by way of new mechanisms on a vast scale...

Această cunoaştere este acum împărtăşită prin intermediul unor mecanisme noi pe scară largă ...


Social networking

Other people:


Social networking

* Read* Watch* Listen* Search* Think* Work* Solve problems* Try products* Find good services* Organise group purchases

Other people:

So I don’t have to !Thursday, 10 November 2011

Machines now manufacture more products and control more things than we do

✦ Integrated circuits✦ Hard drives✦ Displays✦ Computers ✦ Mobile phones✦ ++++✦ Food✦ Clothing✦ ++++✦ Production lines✦ Traffic flows✦ Aircraft✦ +++++


We are creating a society of networked people and things...

✦ Cars✦ Trains✦ Planes✦ Homes✦ Offices ✦ Devices✦ Television✦ Services✦ Support✦ Supply✦ Sales✦ +++++


And we have started to understand the depth of something deep & fundamental

✦ The universe is unstable

✦ It is not well behaved

✦ It is not linear

✦ It is chaotic & non-linear

✦ It may be beyond our understanding


What does this really mean?

Ce înseamnă aceasta cu adevărat?


We may never fully understand....

✦ Tsunamis✦ Ecologies✦ Earthquakes✦ Heart attacks✦ Power outages✦ Market collapses✦ Weather systems✦ Network instabilities✦ Socio-political problems✦ Genome - Protein interaction✦ +++


Responding in time saves lives, resources, time, money....and perhaps the planet...


We only have one prospective solution - a partnership with our machines...

✦ They store all our data

✦ They control our infrastructure

✦ They communicate with our sensors

✦ We totally depend on them

✦ They are slowly getting smarter

✦ But will they ever be intelligent ?

✦ Will they ever be more than super

adding machines & data repositories ?


What we know for sure !

Ceea ce ştim sigur!


Continuing to increase computing power & memory/storage will not lead to intelligence


How do we know ?

Cum ştim?


We have a model for intelligence that says that sensors & actuators are vital...

✦ No input = no intelligence

✦ No output = no intelligence

✦ Memory stores facts and experiences

✦ Processing power defines the time to solve

Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory


The primary reason that my laptop is dumb is that it has no sensory system....


But we are building extensive networks of sensors and that is the first step....


But we are building extensive networks of sensors and that is the first step....

These only number in

the 1000’s


However, our biggest network of sensors numbers in the 1,000,000,000s....


However, our biggest network of sensors numbers in the 1,000,000,000s....

Smart phones could be the ultimate sensor network


Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date?


So, how about that Meta-Data ?

Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date?


What does it know

about you?


What does it know

about you?

Where you are ?Where you have been ?Where you are likely to be going to ?Who you have met ?Who you are going to meet ?Who you call ?Who calls you ?Who you TXT - IM - Link ?All your contactsAll your urlsAll you passwordsWhat you are doing now ?What have you done in the past ?What games you play ?What apps you use ?What music you listen to...?What you watch...?What you read...?++++++++++


Soon to be enhanced with more sensors!


Soon to be enhanced with more sensors!

Enhance 2D/3D CameraEnhanced microphoneEnhanced GPSAir pressureHumidityPollutant detectionWiFi triangulationMedical/Care extensionsRFID

++++++++++


Incramentalism ?

This really isn’t the next step - it really isn’t !!


Incramentalism ?

The banks/card companies are gearing up to do this !!


But the real consumer problem is far bigger!

IDPass

DebitCreditGuidesLoyaltyMedical

LicencesInsurancesInstitutions

Quick NotesMemberships

++++++++++

How many more can you cope with?



IDPass

DebitCreditGuidesLoyaltyMedical

LicencesInsurancesInstitutions

Quick NotesMemberships

++++++++++

Just manage my life for me!




iCards


Much of this technology will be extended to other vehicles...


At a lower technology level we will also see tagging for life


At a lower technology level we will also see tagging for life

Chunky technology

PrettyJewellery

Limited information

Cradleto Grave

Data

Chips and tags on and in everythingincluding goods, animals & people


So, what’s the big deal ?

Deci, ce-i mare scofală?


Our logistic systems waste a significant % of the global GDP...


Data, admin, dosage, treatment errors kill 1000’s or sees serious disablement !


Modern farming sees tagged crops and animals + vehicles and supplies !


Industrial and personal recycling and reuse could be vastly improved to reduce waste !


• There is $$ in data• Even more $$ in meta data

But it all requires even more attention to data...

Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai mult la datele ...

• Există $ $ în date• Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-date


Ultimately this is all about sustainability and survivability!

✦ Not more for the few✦ But sufficient for all

✦ Using what is plentiful✦ Not fighting over the scarce

✦ Creating less waste✦ Helping nature not fighting her

✦ Living in a way the planet can support


Other implications ?

Alte implicaţii?


We understand a lot about the sociology of people, but nothing about the sociology of machines !


But as everything is more and more networked...then we can assume that new levels of intell igence will also emerge...


An early arrival - the 3D printer, replication at a distance, and machines designing machines...


What can we do with AI & AL now?


This was not designed by man.....


Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time…


We have decoded the genome and have made a start on proteins…we can manipulate both...


A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape and function...


Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...


And then there are sensors !


Creativity is moving to the edge.... out of control, open, and distributed...


We will then see new:

✦ ways of thinking✦ discoveries✦ perceptions✦ understanding✦ capabilities

Society and companies will be changed...


Final Word

The £ $ € is in the ʻMeta Dataʼ

$ £ € este în zona "Date Meta"


Thank You

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

1995

mulţumesc


when machines think

Technology

ce zici

machines details

extensive networks of

machines data repositories

s s o c

faptul c metadate

sensors actuators

computing power memorystorage