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When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Declineand the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men
David Autor 1 David Dorn 2 Gordon Hanson 3
1MIT and NBER
2University of Zurich and CEPR
3UCSD and NBER
October 2017
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 1 / 59
The Retreat From Marriage: Marriage Rates DivergeBetween College/Non-College in Mid-1980s
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 2 / 59
In 2009, 40% of U.S. Births Were Out of Wedlock, Morethan Twice as Prevalent as 1980
020
4060
80Pe
rcenta
ge of
Birth
s
Total White Black Hispanic
Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Race
1980 1990 2000 2009
Autor and Wasserman, 2013
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 3 / 59
Steep Rise in Fraction of Children < 18 in Single-HeadedHouseholds
8% 7%12%
26%
32%
39%
10% 11%
19%18%
29%
42%
56%
70%
80%
31%35% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
White White White Black Black Black Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic
>HS HSGrad <HS >HS HSGrad <HS >HS HSGrad <HS
U.S.Children<18LivingwithMotherOnly:1970&20101970 2010
Autor and Wasserman, 2013
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 4 / 59
Single & Poor: Poverty Far Higher Among Single-HeadedHHs at Every Education Level (2008 data)
8
MARRIAGE: AMERICA’S GREATEST WEAPON AGAINST CHILD POVERTY
Understanding the Cultural Context of Non-Marital Pregnancy and Childbearing
Clearly, the rise in unwed child-bearing and the decline in marriage play a strong role in promoting child poverty and other social ills. Dealing with these issues will require an understanding of the social con-text of non-marital pregnancy and childbearing. The best source of information on this topic is Promises
I Can Keep: Why Poor Mothers Put Motherhood Before Marriage by Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas.27
Edin, professor of public policy at Harvard, is the nation’s most distin-guished researcher on low-income single mothers; her findings overturn much conventional wisdom about
“unintended” pregnancy, out-of wed-lock childbearing, and low-income single parents. In popular perception, out-of-wedlock childbearing occurs
as a result of accidental pregnancies among teenage girls who lack access to or knowledge about birth con-trol. This perception is completely inaccurate.
In reality, unwed births rarely involve teenage girls, are almost never caused by a lack of access to birth control, and generally are not the result of purely accidental pregnancies.
■■ As noted previously, only 8 per-cent of non-marital births occur to girls under 18. Non-marital births and pregnancies are phe-nomena that mainly involve young adult men and women.
■■ Research on lower-income women who have become pregnant out-side of marriage (either as minors or adults) reveals that virtually none of these out-of-wedlock pregnancies occurred because of a lack of knowledge about and access to birth control.28
■■ Out-of-wedlock births are gener-ally not the result of purely acci-dental pregnancies. In fact, most women who become pregnant and give birth out of wedlock strongly desire children. Their pregnancies are partially intended or at least not seriously avoided.29
Most Unwed Mothers Strongly Desire Children
Kathryn Edin explains that chil-dren born out of wedlock are “sel-dom conceived by explicit design, yet are rarely a pure accident either.”30
27. Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas, Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2005).
28. Kathryn Edin, Paula England, Emily Fitzgibbons Shafer, and Joanna Reed, “Forming Fragile Families: Was the Baby Planned, Unplanned, or In Between?” in Kathryn Edin and Paula England, eds., Unmarried Couples with Children (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2007), pp. 25–54.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid., p. 7.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Single Married
High School Dropout*
High School Graduate
SomeCollege
College Graduate
58.8%
38.8%
28.7%
10.6%
24.0%
8.9%4.6%
1.8%
CHART 7
* Virtually none of the heads of families who are high school dropouts are minor teenagers.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005–2009 data.
POVERTY RATE OF FAMILIES BY EDUCATION AND MARITAL STATUS OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
Both Marriage and Education Are Highly Effective in Reducing Child Poverty in the United States
heritage.orgSR 117
Rector, 2012
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 5 / 59
When Work Disappears, William Julius Wilson, 1996
“A neighborhood in which peo-ple are poor but employed is dif-ferent from a neighborhood inwhich people are poor and job-less. Many of today’s problemsin the inner-city ghettos—crime,family dissolution, welfare, lowlevels of social organization, andso on—are fundamentally a con-sequence of the disappearance ofwork.”
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 6 / 59
Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of Family and Culture in Crisis,J.D. Vance, 2016
“Wilson’s book spoke to me. Iwanted to write him a letter andtell him that he had describedmy home perfectly. That it res-onated so personally is odd, how-ever, because he wasn’t writ-ing about the hillbilly transplantsfrom Appalachia—he was writingabout black people in the innercities.”
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 7 / 59
Does declining economic stature of males contribute toretreat from marriage, rise in single headedness?
Exploit well-ID’d trade shocks to manufacturingSizable, sustained e↵ects at local labor market (CZ) level
Measure direct labor market consequencesEmployment status: manuf, non-manuf, unemp, NILFAbsolute and relative earnings levels
Document decline of marriageable menIdlenessSex ratioMortalityOther margins of adjustment
Quantify marriage market interactionsMarital status and cohabitationFertility and birth circumstancesChildren’s household structures & poverty
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 8 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 9 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
U.S. Manufacturing Employment Fell by 30% in 1990 -2014
0,00
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,00019
3919
4219
4519
4819
5119
5419
5819
6119
6419
6719
7019
7319
7719
8019
8319
8619
8919
9219
9619
9920
0220
0520
0820
1120
15
U.S. Manufacturing Employment, 1939 - 2016 (1,000s)
1943,16.6 mil
1979,19.7mil 1999,
17.3mil
2007,13.8mil
2010,11.9mil
2016,12.4mil
1990,17.6mil
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 10 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
China’s Historic Rise as a World Manufacturing Power
0
5
10
15
20
perc
ent
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
China Other emerging economiesUSA Germany
Shares of world manufacturing exports
0
5
10
15
20
perc
ent
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
China Other emerging economiesUSA Germany
Shares of world manufacturing exports
0
5
10
15
20
perc
ent
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
China Other emerging economiesUSA Germany
Shares of world manufacturing exports
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 11 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
Literature: Labor Market Impact of ‘China Shock’
Sizable impact of ‘China shock’ on U.S. employment,wages
Bernard, Jensen, Schott ‘06; Autor, Dorn, Hanson ‘13; Ebenstein,Harrison, McMillan, Phillips ‘14; Autor, Dorn, Hanson, Song ‘14;Pierce, Schott ‘16
Explains 30-40% of the decline in manufacturing employment from1990 to 2007 (Caliendo, Dvorkin, Parro ‘15; Acemolgu et al. ‘16)
Impacts concentrated in1 Import-exposed industries: Pierce, Schott ’16; Acemolgu et al. ’162 Workers employed in exposed firms: Autor, Dorn, Hanson, Song ’143 Import-exposed local labor markets: Autor, Dorn, Hanson ’13
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 12 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
Two Thirds of Manufacturing Employees are Men
Emp Status: Men 18 - 39 Emp Status: Women 18 - 39
Non-Manuf55.0%
Non-Manuf57.7%
Non-Manuf62.2%
Non-Manuf63.0%
Non-Manuf64.3%
Manuf23.3%
Manuf21.3%
Manuf17.4%
Manuf14.1%
Manuf9.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2014
Non-Manuf37.5%
Non-Manuf49.5%
Non-Manuf58.6%
Non-Manuf59.8%
Non-Manuf63.1%
Manuf8.6%
Manuf10.1%
Manuf8.7%
Manuf6.7%
Manuf3.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2014
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 13 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
Manufacturing Jobs Have Higher Wage Levels
$4.96
19.0%
8.0%
11.0%
$5.92
26.0%
17.0%
9.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Annual Wage and Salary Income
($1,000s)Log Annual Wage and Salary Income Log Annual Hours Log Hourly Wage
Men Women
Estimates based on Census 2000 data are conditional on age, education, race, eth-nicity, and CZone fixed e↵ects
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 14 / 59
The decline of US manufacturing
Literature: Gender, Earnings, and Marriage
Becker ‘73: Marriage and specialization
Marital matching negatively correlated on earnings
Increases in male relative to female earnings raise marriage (and v.v. forfalls in relative male earnings)
Evidence
Blau, Kahn, Waldfogel ‘00; Ellwood, Jencks ‘04; Murray ‘12; Shenhav‘16; Shaller ‘16
Black, McKinnish, Sanders ‘03, ‘05: Using coal and steel shocks, finde↵ects on welfare receipt, single-headedness
Bertrand, Kamenica, Pan ‘15: Marriages in which wife earns more thanhusband appear to form less frequently, dissolve more frequently
Kearney, Wilson ‘17: Fracking booms increase incomes and fertility butdo not a↵ect marriage
Page, Hu↵ Stevens, Lindo ‘09; Lindo, Hansen, Schaller ‘16: Parentaljob loss and adverse outcomes for children
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 15 / 59
Empirical approach
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 16 / 59
Empirical approach
Data
Trade exposure
UN Comtrade 1991, 2000, 2014: value of goods imports matched to397 manufacturing industries
County Business Patterns 1980, 1990: employment in 397 industries in722 Commuting Zones (CZs)
Outcome variables
Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, ACS 2013-15: employment, earnings,marital status and household structure in 722 CZs
Vital Statistics 1990, 2000, 2010: births and deaths in 722 CZs
Army Enlistment Records 2001-2011
Focus on population age 18-39, all races/ethnicities combined
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 17 / 59
Empirical approach
Measuring Local Labor Market Import Exposure
1 Compute change in manufacturing import penetration by industry j(397 industries)
�IPj,⌧ =
�Mch,usj,⌧
Yj,91 +M
j,91 � Xj,91
,
where ⌧ 2 {1991� 2000; 2000� 2014}
2 Compute change in import penetration by Commuting Zone (CZ) ibased on i’s initial industry employment mix across industries j
�IPi,⌧ =
X
j
Lij,90
Li,90
�IPj,⌧
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 18 / 59
Empirical approach
Instrumental Variables Strategy
Source of endogeneity
US imports from China not only a↵ected by Chinese productivitygrowth and falling trade costs, but also by US demand shocks
Instrumental variables approach
Instrument for US imports from China using other developed countries,imports from China (and lags of all other variables)
�IPoth
j,⌧ =�Mch,oth
j,⌧
Yj,88 +M
j,88 � Xj,88
, �IPoth
i,⌧ =X
j
Lij,80
Li,80
�IPoth
j,⌧
Variation in industry-level trade shocks has well-specified origin
�0s in China productivity and market access, causing Chinese exportsto many countries to surge simultaneously
As per Goldsmith-Pinkham et al. ’17, use fixed weights for industryshares, test for pre-trends
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 19 / 59
Empirical approach
Geographic Dispersion of Exposure to Chinese ImportCompetition
Autor, Dorn and Hanson 2013
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 20 / 59
Empirical approach
Pooled (M+F) Trade Shocks: Employment-Weighted �0sin CZ’s Import Penetration per Decade (' % of CZ GDP)
0.54%
0.73%
0.89%
1.01%0.95%
1.15%1.22%
1.30%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%1990-2000 2000-2014
P25 P50 Mean P75
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 21 / 59
Empirical approach
Accounting for Gender Di↵erences
Gender-specific trade shocks
Trade shocks di↵erentially a↵ect males or females depending onindustries exposed
Instrumental variables approach
Multiply CZ-by-industry exposure measure by initial period male orfemale share of employment in each industry-CZ cell
�IPm
i,⌧ =X
j
mij,90Lij,90Li,90
�IPj,⌧ ,
�IP f
i,⌧ =X
j
(1�mij,90) Lij,90Li,90
�IPj,⌧ ,
where mij,90 is the male employment share in industry j in CZ i in 1990
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 22 / 59
Empirical approach
Employment-Weighted �0s in CZ’s Import Penetration perDecade by Sex
0.4%0.4%
0.2%0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%0.5%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%1990-2000 2000-2014 1990-2000 2000-2014
Men Women
P25 P50 Mean P75
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 23 / 59
Empirical approach
Main Estimating Equations
Estimated by 2SLS
�Yi,⌧ = ↵
t
+ �1�IPi,⌧ + X0
i,t� + eit
,
�Yi,⌧ = ↵0
t
+ �0
1�IPm
i,⌧ + �0
2�IP f
i,⌧ + X0
i,t�0 + e0
it
Control vector includes...
Population shares in 5 race/ethnicity, 2 education, and 2 nativity groups
Share of employment in manufacturing, ‘routine-intensive’ occupations,‘o↵shorable’ occupations
Female employment share
Census division dummies
Other specification features
Wage quantile estimates apply Chetverikov, Larsen, Palmer ’16 groupedquantile IV estimator
CZ’s weighted by population, SEs clustered on states
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 24 / 59
Labor market impacts
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 25 / 59
Labor market impacts Manufacturing employment
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 26 / 59
Labor market impacts Manufacturing employment
OLS and 2SLS Estimates 1990 – 2014: ManufacturingEmployment/Pop, Ages 18-39
Impact on Manufacturing Emp/Pop, Ages 18 - 39
-1.09%
-1.69% -1.64%
-1.05%-0.91%
-1.06%
-2.00%
-1.75%
-1.50%
-1.25%
-1.00%
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%OLS 2SLS
+Division Dummies
+ Manuf Share
+Occ Controls
+Pop Controls
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 27 / 59
Labor market impacts Manufacturing employment
Reduced Form Test for Pre-Trends: 1970-80, 1980-90,1990-00, 2000-14
Impact on Manufacturing Emp/Pop, Ages 18 - 39
1.69%
0.21%
-1.09%
-0.70%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2014
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 28 / 59
Labor market impacts Employment to population
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 29 / 59
Labor market impacts Employment to population
Impact of Manufacturing Shocks on EmploymentStatus/Pop by Sex Ages 18-39, 1990-2014
Impact of Gender Trade Shocks on LF Status by Sex, Ages 18 - 39
-1.54%
-0.88%
0.55%0.36%
0.98%
0.53%
-2.25%
-2.00%
-1.75%
-1.50%
-1.25%
-1.00%
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%Men 18 - 39 Women 18 - 39
Employment/Pop Unemployment/Pop NILF/Pop
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 30 / 59
Labor market impacts Employment to population
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on M-F Gap inEmployment Status/Pop, 1990-2014
Impact of Pooled Trade Shock on M-F � in LF Status, Ages 18 - 39
-0.65%
0.19%
0.46%
-1.25%
-1.00%
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%Employment/Pop Unemployment/Pop NILF/Pop
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 31 / 59
Labor market impacts Employment to population
Impact of Sex-Specific Shocks on Emp/Pop by Sex,1990-2014
-1.5%
-0.9%
-3.1%
0.1%0.2%
-2.0%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%Emp/Pop Men Emp/Pop Women
Overall shock Male shock Female shock
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 32 / 59
Labor market impacts Earnings distribution
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 33 / 59
Labor market impacts Earnings distribution
Impact of Pooled Manufacturing Shock on CZ-Level Maleand Female Annual Earnings, 1990 - 2014 (in 2015$)
-6,00
0-5
,000
-4,00
0-3
,000
-2,00
0-1
,000
0Do
llars
(201
5)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percentile of Income Distribution
Male Earnings Female Earnings
Effect of Overall Trade Shock on Change in Earnings by Gender
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 34 / 59
Labor market impacts Earnings distribution
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on CZ-Level Male-FemaleAnnual Earnings Gap in US$
−400
0−35
00−3
000−
2500
−200
0−15
00−1
000−5
000
Dolla
rs (2
015)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percentile of Income Distribution
Effect of Overall Trade Shock on Change in M−F Earnings Gap
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 35 / 59
Labor market impacts Earnings distribution
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on CZ-Level Male-FemaleAnnual Earnings Gap as a Pct of Male Earnings in 1990
−14
−12
−10
−8−6
−4−2
0Pe
rcen
tage
of M
ale E
arnin
gs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percentile of Income Distribution
Effect of Overall Trade Shock on Change in M−F Earnings Gap
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 36 / 59
Male decline
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 37 / 59
Male decline Idleness
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 38 / 59
Male decline Idleness
What Do Non-Employed Young Adults Do?
Trade-o↵ between employment opportunities andeducational investments
Trade booms and busts: Atkin ’16; Greenland, Lopresti ’16
Housing booms and busts: Charles, Hurst, Notowidigdo ’16; AparicioFenoll ’16
Growing demand for leisure
Young men increasingly devote time to video games: Aguiar, Bils,Charles, Hurst ’16
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 39 / 59
Male decline Idleness
Focusing on Young Adults 18-25, a Sharp Rise in Male‘Idleness’ in Trade-Exposed CZs
-1.50%
0.72% 0.79%
-0.87%
0.74%
0.13%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Employed In School, Not Employed
Not in School, Not Employed
Men Women
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 40 / 59
Male decline Idleness
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on ‘Idleness’ Gap AmongYoung Adults 18-25: Males - Females
-0.64%
0.66%
-1.50%
-1.25%
-1.00%
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
Employed In School, Not Employed
Not in School, Not Employed
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 41 / 59
Male decline Missing men and marriageable men
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 42 / 59
Male decline Missing men and marriageable men
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on Ratio ofMales/Females Ages 18 - 25/39, 1990-2014
Impact of Trade Shocks on M/F Gender Ratio in CZ, Ages 18 - 25/39
-1.02
-1.28
-2.75%
-2.50%
-2.25%
-2.00%
-1.75%
-1.50%
-1.25%
-1.00%
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%Age 18-39 Age 18-25
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 43 / 59
Male decline Missing men and marriageable men
Why Does the M/F Ratio Fall in Trade-Exposed CZs?
1 Di↵erential male migrationBartik ’17 finds small negative overall pop inflow response, no outflowresponseNo evidence on gender-specific migration patterns
2 Military enlistmentUsing Army records: sharp rise in enlistments of young, unmarried menCan explain about 10% of M/F decline
3 IncarcerationDeiana ‘15, Feler-Senses ‘15: increase in property crimeDi�cult to translate into population e↵ects w/o incarceration data
4 HomelessnessDi�cult to quantify. Some data suggest that 2/3rds of homeless are men
5 MortalityCase & Deaton ‘15,‘16: Rise in mortality among middle-age,non-Hispanic whites 1998-2015. See also Pierce-Schott ‘17We focus on young adults 20-39, by sex and cause
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 44 / 59
Male decline Mortality among young adults
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 45 / 59
Male decline Mortality among young adults
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on ‘Deaths of Despair’
Deaths per 100K Adults Ages 20-39
2.3
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2
0.20.1
-0.2 -0.1
0.00.4
-4/100K
-3/100K
-2/100K
-1/100K
0/100K
1/100K
2/100K
3/100K
4/100K
5/100K
Drug/ Alc Poison
Liver Disease Diabetes
Lung Cancer Suicide
Male Mortality Female Mortality
Annual death rate among Men in 1990 was 213/100K
Annual death rate among Women in 1990 was 79/100K
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 46 / 59
Male decline Mortality among young adults
Male-Female Mortality Di↵erential
5.4
3.02.5
-4/100K
-2/100K
0/100K
2/100K
4/100K
6/100K
8/100K
10/100K
12/100K
All Causes Other Drug + Alcohol
Poisoning
Liver Disease
Diabetes Lung Cancer
Suicide
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 47 / 59
Male decline Mortality among young adults
Summary of Outcomes at Individual (not Family) Level forYoung Adults
Trade shocks...1 Reduce di↵erentially reduce male employment
2 Reduce male relative earnings, esp. below the median of theannual earnings distribution
3 Sharply increase ‘idleness’ among young men but not women
4 Reduce the ratio of young adult men to women in CZ
5 Induce di↵erential rise in male mortality from drug & alcoholcauses
6 Found to raise local crime–mostly committed by young men
Young men faring di↵erentially poorly in trade-impacted CZs
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 48 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 49 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Marital status, cohabitation
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 50 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Marital status, cohabitation
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on Marital Status,Cohabitation of Women Ages 18 – 39, 1990-2014
Impact on Marital Status, HH Structure, Women Ages 18 - 39
-0.95%
-0.21%
1.16%
-0.81%
-0.22%
1.03%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%Married
Widowed/ Divorced/ Separated
Never Married
Living w/Spouse
Living w/Partner Other
Marital Status Household Structure
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 51 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Marital status, cohabitation
Impact of Manufacturing Shock by Sex on Marital Status,HH Structure of Women Ages 18 – 39, 1990-2014
Marital Status Cohabitation
-3.6%
-0.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.3%
-2.3%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%Married
Widowed/ Divorced/ Separated Never Married
Male shock Female shock
-3.2%
0.0%
3.2%
1.9%
-0.5%
-1.4%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%Living w/Spouse Living w/Partner Other
Male shock Female shock
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 52 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Fertility
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 53 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Fertility
Impact of Manufacturing Shock on Fertility among WomenAge 15-39, 1990-2014
-2.3
0.4% 0.4%
-7.9
1.2%
2.5%3.5
-0.5%
-1.9%
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Birth Rate per 1000 Women Age 15-39
Share Teenage Mothers
Share Unmarried Mothers
Overall shock Male shock Female shock
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 54 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Children’s household structures, poverty
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 55 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Children’s household structures, poverty
Trade Shocks Increase Prevalence of Children<17 inSingle-Headed and Poor HH’s
Fraction of Children <18 Living in HH Arrangement
0.61%
-0.35%
-0.11%
0.30%0.19%
-0.03%
-0.75%
-0.50%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
Poor HH Married Parents
Parent w/ Partner
Single Parent
Grand-parents
Any Other
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 56 / 59
Marriage, fertility, HH structure, poverty Children’s household structures, poverty
Shocks to Male vs. Female Earnings Have OppositeImpacts on Children’s HH Arrangements and Poverty
Fraction of Children <18 Living in HH Arrangement
2.1%
-1.9%
0.3%
1.4%
0.4%
-0.3%
-1.1%
1.4%
-0.6%
-1.0%
-0.1%
0.3%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%Poor HH
Married Parents
Parent w/ Partner
Single Parent
Grand-parents Any Other
Male Shock Female Shock
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 57 / 59
Conclusions
Agenda
1 The decline of US manufacturing
2 Empirical approach
3 Labor market impactsManufacturing employmentEmployment to populationEarnings distribution
4 Male declineIdlenessMissing men and marriageable menMortality among young adults
5 Marriage, fertility, HH structure, povertyMarital status, cohabitationFertilityChildren’s household structures, poverty
6 Conclusions
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 58 / 59
Conclusions
The Declining Economic Stature of Young Men and the‘Retreat from Marriage’
1 Decline of manufacturing due to increased import competitionReduced relative emplyoment and earnings of men
2 Broader consequences on young adults and childrenReduced male/female ratio in non-institutional populationRaised male mortality due to drug and alcohol poisoningReduced marriage rates and fertilityRaised fraction of kids living in poverty, single-headed HHs
3 Mechanism appears quantitatively relevantChina shock alone explains 5%-20% of the observed changes in familystructure outcomesTotal e↵ect of manufacturing decline is likely larger
Autor, Dorn & Hanson When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men 59 / 59