whether the abenomics still has positive effects on japanese economy?

Whether the Abenomics Still Has Positive Effects On Japanese Economy?

ABE

Present by Lun Wei(Allen) Fanjian Kong(Frank) Fanqi Peng(Jack) Pan Rao(Damon)

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Shinzo Abe

• 96th and current Prime Minister of Japan

• the President of the LDP and chairman of the Oyagaku propulsion parliamentary group

• right-wing nationalist• born into a political family

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A. 在此录入文字目录B. 在此录入文字目录C. 在此录入文字目录D. 在此录入文字目录E. 在此录入文字目录F. 在此录入文字目录

Abenomics• Three arrows• 1. fiscal stimulus: fiscal spending will increase

by 2% of GDP• 2. monetary easing: 2% target inflation rate

through quantitative easing• 3. structural reforms: encourage private

investment

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Background

• Lost Decade since the burst of the Japanese asset price bubble in the early 1990s.

• Raised consumption tax from 3% to 5% in 1997.• Global economic recession in 2008.• Yoshihiko Noda government passed a bill to

Increase consumption tax rate to 8% in 2014 and 10% in 2015.

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Economic Outlook in Japan 1994-1999Yea

rNGDP NGD

P (%)

Unemployed persons

Economically active

population

Unemployed rate (%)

1994

486526.3

1.19 1920,ooo 66,450,000 2.88

1995

493271.7

1.38 2100,000 66,660,000 3.15

1996

502608.9

1.89 2250,000 67,110,000 3.35

1997

512248.9

1.91 2300,000 67,870,000 3.38

1998

502972.8

-1.81 2790,ooo 67,930,000 4.10

1999

495226.9

-1.54 3170,000 67,790,000 4.67

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Effects

• Depreciation of Japanese yen• Unemployment rate fell from 4% in the final

quarter of 2012 to 3.7% in the first quarter of 2013• The yen became about 25% lower against the U.S

dollar• The stock market had risen by 55%.• Worsened Japan’s trade deficit as the weaker yen

increased the cost of imports.

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Nationality and characteristic of Japanese

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Sense of discipline

• Mikado ---the emperor of Japan. • Supreme leader of Shintoism in Japan.• There were huge amount of Japanese adore the

Mikado and follow the Mikado especially in WW2 enthusiastically.

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Japan in WW2

• The Mikado of Japan took an important role in WW2 include the invasion in China during 1937-1945

• Due to the sense of discipline, the Japan Army kill thousands and millions of people in China by following the instructions of the Mikado and the order by the superior.

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Characteristic of Japanese

1. The Japanese always follow their boss order without any excuse no matter it is right or wrong.

2. Japanese tend to do their best in order to reach the standard which was set by their leaders.

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Fact of WW2

• The Prime Ministers of Japan had apologized to China for the WWII about 23 times.

• Meanwhile, the prime ministers in Japan are trying to obscure the fact of invasion to the other Asian country.(make it ambiguous among the Japanese). Evident: The time that the prime ministers had visited Yasukuni Shrine was 25 times

These 2 things seem very contradictory.

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Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine

• Background of Yasukuni Shrine: honers the class A WWII criminals. The visiting of Abe to Yasukuni Shrine hurt the people in neighbour country such as China and Korea.

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Explaination of Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine• By visiting Yasukuni Shrine and obscure

the fact of invasion to the other Asian country, the prime minister can keep a good reputation and authority of Mikado among the Japanese.

• That is the way how the Japanese protect their leader(Mikado).

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Explaination of Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine

Mr Abe is convincing his people that 1.Japan is a superior nation and it is better than any other country in Asia. 2. Outside of Japan, when it comes to visiting to Yasukuni, Mr Abe had to behave himself in a Japan-oriented way. Only in this way, he can lead Japanese people to believe in thier country and sacrifice for their country, thus, they will work harder, learn harder, which will improve national economy.

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Economic Model

Sense of Discipline

Japanese completely follow the economic policy and birth control policy

Work harder, study harder,Lower birth rate.

Higher human capital and lower birth rate

Economic take-off during 1960-1980

EndogenousModel

Solow ModelLower population growth rate.

Lack of labor force Economic slowdown nowadays.

Positive impact

EndogenousModel

Negative impact

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Change in characteristic among Japanese man –Herbivore men hypothesis

• Herbivore men( 草食男，草食系男子 ,초식계 )or grasseaters

• Trait: 1.The men who shun marriage and

rufuse to fall in love with girl. 2.They are quiet, mild, lack of ambition 3.Behave became feminized( 女性化 )

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Reason

• Herbivore men: 1 Age between 20-30. 2 Born in a enviroment that lack of

competitions. They don‘t have to worry what they eat and what they dress. 3These type of men became passive and tend to wait for the opportunities rather than searching for opportunities

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Effect on Economy

• Herbivore men don't like to pay a lot of times and attentions on their jobs and works. Meanwhile, they like to spent their time at home by themselves.

• The saving behavior of Herbivore men are tend to be conservative. They don't like to spent time on manage their money matter and investment.

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Effects on economy

1 Lead to lower and lower birth rate (Herbivore men tend to avoid marriage), in long run, it will do harm to the economic growth.

2 The herbivore men in business became mild and lack of competitiveness. It will go against economic growth.

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Revive the economy

• Herbivore men hypothesis show a negative development trend on nationalism. But Abe want to achieve the high economic growth again like the period in post world war 2. In the period of post ww2, Japanese government energize the Japanese economy by arousing people's nationalistic zeal in their mind. And their patriotic love for their country. Thus people worker harder and study harder in order to sacrifice for their country in the future.

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Herbivore men hypothesis

• There are lot of reasons and facts that leaded to Japan economic slowdown. Such as technology development in Korea are much more faster than Japan today due to import technologies directly form US. And Prof Hugh Patrick at Harvard said that young Japanese are as good as the old Japanese although they may look different. But in the near future, we can see the Herbivore men hypothesis effect the Japan economy or not.

23/4/21

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political

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Simple Economic Policies

• no special or new strategy• depreciation– Plaza Accord 1985

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Political Appeals

• make Japan a normal country– concentrate state power • central bank

– implement Abenomics

• cabinet legislative bureau– change constitution and get the right of collective self-

defence

• state television

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– improve all citizens confidence• depreciate currency

– reduce other Asian countries competitive power

• visit Yasukuni Shrine– redefine Japan's actions during the second world

war.

Political Appeals

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U.S.A

Japan

Korea

China ， India

Burma ， Vietnam

Japan

Korea

China ， India

Burma ， Vietnam

Fanli Asian Economic RegionFlying Geese Model

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Political aspect

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Political actions

Mr. Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni ( 靖国神社）The interview with Mr. Honda from WSJ was quiet surprising, which was about the reason of Mr. Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni and the subtext of Japanese military build-up, which was denied later.

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Mr. Abe’s aggression on Fishing Island

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Besides, Japan had been arguing with Korea about the Takeshima Island for a long time.

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Consequences of Political Side of Abenomics

Besides, American government leader announced that they did not believe in Mr. Abe’s visiting at first, but they also got astonished after they had confirmed the news.

America had thrown cold water on Japan. The commander of U.S Forces in Japan had emphasized that American military will not be involved with the conflict between China and Japan due to the Fishing Island issue.

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The reflections of other countries’s media towards Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni

Korean Media, YTN TV Station said, Abe will rise while the whole Japan is going to fall

Russian News Media, said, Top leader of Japan should not knee down in front of Japan’s criminals.

Switzerland Media said, Abe’s promise for permanent peace is just saying.

Malaysia Media said, Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni worsened the its relationship with the whole Asia.

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Mr. Abe had aroused China’s public anger.

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Economy consequences due to the political effect aroused by Abenomics

The import and export from Japan to China and China to Japan had been descended sharply.

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Empirical experience

In 2013,

volume of the trade between China and Japan was 312.55 billion dollar, which was decreased by 5.1%.

Volume of goods and services export from China to Japan was 150.28 billion dollar, which was decreased by 0.9%.

Volume of goods and services import from Japan to China was 162.28 billion dollar, which was decreased by 8.7%.

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Empirical

experienceIn 2012, nominal GDP of Japan is 5938.545 billion US dollar

In 2013, nominal GDP of Japan is 4898.113 billion US dollar

Decreased by 17.5%

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ConclusionMr. Abe’s political strategy does not suit for the situations in the present-day.

It is undoubted that it is efficient to improve economy by arousing people’s passion and love for their country, which is also increasing human capital.

However, if Mr. Abe keeps establishing his policy, it would harm the relationship with Japan and the whole Asia, which will definitely lead to a economy descend.

Abenomics is only ethnocentrism if Japan does not behave humble to other countries.

Abenomics, as an extremely dangerous political policy that it can hardly help Japan to develop economy in the future.

whether the abenomics still has positive effects on japanese economy?

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