who believes in conspiracy theories

7/28/2019 Who believes in conspiracy theories

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Who believes in conspiracytheories?

Adrian BangerterPascal Wagner


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What is a conspiracy theory?

Explanation of a negative event asintentionally caused by a group oralliance of groups acting in secret

Event can be in the past or in the future Group(s) seen as plotting behind the

scenes Official explanations hide the truth


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Example 1: The J ewishconspiracy

Since Middle Ages J ew as conspiring against Christianity Allegations of killing children to parody the

crucifixion Scapegoats for events like famine and plague

20th century: Protocols of the Elders of Zion

Zukier, H. (1987). The conspiratorial imperative: medieval J ewry in Western Europe. In C. F. Graumann & S. Moscovici (Eds.),Changing conceptions of conspiracy (pp. 87-103). Berlin: Springer.


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Example 2: The Satanicconspiracy

Witches in league with the Devil Black Sabbaths, perverted practices

(orgies, cannibalism, etc.) Basis for Inquisition and witch hunts in

the 17th century Anti-society, perverted practices seen

as non-human, construe them asdevoted to the downfall of humanity

J acques-Chapin, N. (1987). Demoniac conspiracy. In C. F. Graumann & S. Moscovici (Eds.), Changing conceptions of conspiracy (pp. 71-85). Berlin: Springer.


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The conspiracy mentality

Moscovici (1987, p. 151) "A conspiracy is, bydefinition, the work of a minority" Conspiracy and modernity

Modern compulsion to think in terms of conspiracy

Groups seeking to "foment upheaval insociety, pervert social values, aggravatecrises, promote defeat, and so on." (p. 154)

Moscovici, S. (1987). The conspiracy mentality. In C. F. Graumann & S. Moscovici (Eds.), Changing conceptions of conspiracy(pp. 151-169). Berlin: Springer.


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Example 3: The AIDS conspiracy AIDS is a man-made disease engineered in US government labs Purpose: control minority (e.g. Black) population Based on historical fact (Tuskegee experiments)?

Persistent feature of African-American cultural legends(Turner, 1994) Interferes with AIDS prevention (Bogart & Thorburn,

2005) Function: System blame (Crocker et al., 1999)

Bogart, L. M., & Thorburn, S. (2005). Exploring the relationship of conspiracy beliefs about HIV/AIDS to sexual behaviors andattitudes among African-American adults. Journal of the National Medical Association, 95 , 1-10.

Crocker, J ., Luhtanen, R., Broadnax, S. & Blaine, B.-E. (1999). Belief in U.S. government conspiracies against Blacks amongBlack and White college students: Powerlessness or system blame ? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 25 , 941-953.Turner, P. (1994). I heard it through the grapevine: rumor in African-American culture . Berkeley: University of California Press.


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Example 4: The Masadasyndrome

Bar-Tal (1986, p. 34) "State in whichmembers of a group hold a centralbelief that the rest of the world hashighly negative behavioral intentionstowards the group"

Originated as criticism of Israeli politicalstance in 1970s

Bar-Tal, D. (1986). The Masada Syndrome: A case of central belief. In N. Milgram(Ed.), Stress and coping in time of war (pp. 32-51). New York: Brunner/Mazel.


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Factors influencing belief

Goertzel, T. (1994). Belief in conspiracy theories. Political Psychology, 15 , 731-742.


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The conspiracy mentalityrevisited

Conspiracy beliefs not only held bymajorities but also by minorities Perpetrators as majorities Two different types of conspiracy

theory?

How do they differ?

Moscovici, S. (1987). The conspiracy mentality. In C. F. Graumann & S. Moscovici (Eds.), Changing conceptions of conspiracy(pp. 151-169). Berlin: Springer.


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Can two types of conspiracytheory be distinguished?


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Example 5: The death of Lady Di

Car accident in Alma tunnel in Paris Conspiracy theory: Was assassinated by MI6

in order to avert possible marriage with Dodi

Al-Fayed, a Muslim

BUT: Who cares?


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Other examples

J FK was not killed by a lone assassin Marilyn Monroe's (or Kurt Cobain's,or Michael Hutchence's or Mozart's)death was not a suicide/accident.He/she was assassinated

The US Air Force is covering upevidence of extraterrestrial contacts

Claude Franois was actuallymurdered

BUT: Who cares?


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Can three types of conspiracytheory be distinguished?

"Generalized propensity"/syndrome

Shadowy, impersonal organizations

?

epistemic (explanation, attribution, consistency?)

powerless?suspicion, distrust

?

How are these types related?Who believes?

H I G H S T A K E SL O W S T A K E S


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Factors presumably associatedwith belief

Guesses:- Paranoia- Anxiety- Loss of control ( agency panic )- Magical thinking- Individualism? Collectivism?- Political orientation- Cognitive style (attributional style, need for structure, need for closure)

Empirical data:- Anomia- System blame- Minority status- Interpersonal trust- Age (actually cohort membership)


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Factors associated withconspiracy beliefs: paranoia

Features similar to paranoid thought Details: Obsessive, hyper-coherent argumentatative style Big picture: fantastic content Impossible to falsify

Hofstadter, R. (1964). The paranoid style in American politics. Harpers Magazine, November , 77-86 .


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Engelberg


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Mein Kampf

Hitler on the Protocols of the Elders of Zion

"based on a forgery, the Frankfurter Zeitungmoans and screams once every week: thebest proof that they are authentic."

http://ddickerson.igc.org/hitler-protokollen.html


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Political extremists (eitherLeft or Right): smallminorities chronically atodds with rest of society

Permanent frustration of political goals Increased propensity to

think of goals as

purposefully blocked

Factors associated with conspiracy beliefs:political orientation

Inglehart, R. (1987). Extremist political positions and perceptions of conspiracy: Even paranoids have real enemies. In C.F. Graumann & S. Moscovici (Eds.), Changing conceptions of conspiracy (pp. 231-244). Berlin: Springer.


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Negative associations between age andbelief

A cohort effect Age of Anxiety: increase in trait anxiety

(Twenge, 2000)

Postmaterial values (Ingelhart, 1987)

Factors associated with conspiracy beliefs:age (actually, cohort membership)

Inglehart, R. (1987). Extremist political positions and perceptions of conspiracy: Even paranoids have real enemies. In C.F. Graumann & S. Moscovici (Eds.), Changing conceptions of conspiracy (pp. 231-244). Berlin: Springer.

Twenge, J . M. (2000). The age of anxiety? Birth cohort change in anxiety and neuroticism, 1952-1993. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79 , 1007-1021.


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Belief: A generalized dimension?

Goertzel, T. (1994). Belief in conspiracy theories. Political Psychology, 15 , 731-742.

= .78factor analysis: 1st factor explains 38% variance

32%15%11%

10%41%

69%

42%54%46%21%


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Our study: Goals

Do people believe in conspiracies in anon-motivated way, i.e. in conspriaciesthat don't affect them?

If so, is belief a generalized dimension? What variables are associated with

belief? Hypothesis: Paranoia, age, political

orientation


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Average belief levels

Error bars = 1 SD

1

2

3

4

5

67

J FK 11 sept Lady Di Apollo

****** ***

63% of Swissparticipants abovemidpoint. Goertzel

(1994) reports 69% of surveyed US participants

believe in J FK conspiracy


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Correlations between belief indifferent conspiracies

.31**

.40**

.12

.30*

.23 g.21 g

= .59Principal components analysis: 1 factor explains 45% of variance


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Histograms by conspiracy

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

0

5

10

15

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F r e q u e n c y

onzesept

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 jf

0

5

10

15

20

25

F r e q u e n c y

jf k

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.000

5

10

15

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F r e q u e n c y

ladydi

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.000

5

10

15

20

F r e q u e n c y

Apol lo


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Correlations

Global belief With age = -.13

With paranoia = .21* With political orientation = -.17*

t-test by sex, ns

all significane levels one-tailed


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Multiple regression

Criterion: Global belief Adjusted R2 = .12*

polit.orient. = -.22*, paranoia = .21* sex = .02, age = -.11, both ns


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Summary of findings

High levels of belief in CH students forconspiracies that don't affect them

Comparable to US Unidimensionality Predicted by: paranoia, extremist political

orientation Age not a predictor (sample limitations?)


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Evidence for a conspiracymentality?

Some evidence Correlations between seemingly unrelated

conspiracy theories

Absence of clear motivating factors

Plan to extend search for "lay epistemic"predictors: Need for closure, irrationalthought propensity, BJ W, ???


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Further studies

Can belief be situationally manipulated (e.g.,Fenigstein & Vanable, 1992)? The special case of premature celebrity

death: Big events call for big causes(McCauley & J acques, 1979) Correlational study of perceived level of

celebrity (cultural heritage, etc.) and belief inconspiracy theory

McCauley, C., & J acques, S. (1979). The popularity of conspiracy theories of presidential assassination: A Bayesiananalysis. [Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 637-644.


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Premature celebrity death andconspiracies on the internet

Google search for 34 celebrities with conspiracies to their name

Degree of fame: number of web pages Salience of conspiracy: Proportion of pages mentioning celebrity,

"death" and "conspiracy" divided by proportion of pagesmentioning celebrity and "death"

"JFK""Death"

"Conspiracy"


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Premature celebrity death andconspiracies on the internet

Significant one-tailed correlation between fame and proportion of celebrity association with death that mention conspiracies, r = .31

~The more famous you are, the more likely mentions of your deathare to be associated with conspiracy

~In the context of J FK's death, "conspiracy" is more likely than inthe context of Kurt Cobain's death

"JFK""Death"

"Conspiracy"

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