who do we think we are - ipsos mori presentation to heads of comms v04
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Ipsos MORI
[email protected] [email protected]
@IpsosMORI @BenM_IM @MattTaylor_IM
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The mood of the nation: a moment of change? 2
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A game changer? 3
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The feel-good bounce beat expectations
11
6
8
5
25
8
29
17
64
86
63
78
the mood of
the public
the way
Britain is viewed
by the rest of
the world
30 Nov-6 Dec 2011
Q. What effect, if any, do you think the 2012 Olympics will have / has had on?
Source: Ipsos MORI for British Future
10-13 August 2012
30 Nov-6 Dec 2011
10-13 August 2012
% very/slightly positive effect% very/slightly negative effect
Base: c1,000 online interviews, adults 16-75 in GB, 30 Nov-6 Dec 2011, 10-13 August 2012
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A cultural reference point
We can deliver. We can do big things. TheOlympics reminded us how great it feels to
be successful
You know, I've spent three years trying toexplain the Big Society...they did it beautifullyin just three weeks.
We just think about the Olympics and Paralympic
games. It was a triumph for BritainMo Farah. A true
Brit. And a true hero for our country.
We succeeded because of the outstanding
volunteers, the Games Makers who are here with ustoday, all 70,000 Games makers. They put a mirror
up to Britain and showed us the best of ourselves..
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Our polls: 11 point Labour lead since May
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2010
GeneralElection
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monito
Local elections
2012
UK recession
2010 Q4
Euro veto
Dec 2011
6
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-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan-97
May-97
Sep-97
Jan-98
May-98
Sep-98
Jan-99
May-99
Sep-99
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same orget worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56-48
+23
Index(getbetter
minusgetworse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-9
Sustained economic pessimism
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
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Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Economic and unemployment worries
Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun'97
Sep'97
Dec'97
Mar'98
Jun'98
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Mar'99
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Dec'99
Mar'00
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Sep'00
Dec'00
Mar'01
Jun'01
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Dec'01
Mar'02
Jun'02
Sep'02
Dec'02
Mar'03
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Dec'03
Mar'04
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Dec'04
Mar'05
Jun'05
Sep'05
Dec'05
Mar'06
Jun'06
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Dec'06
Mar'07
Jun'07
Sep'07
Dec'07
Mar'08
Jun'08
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Sep'09
Dec'09
Mar'10
Jun'10
Sep'10
Dec'10
Mar'11
Jun'11
Sep'11
Dec'11
Mar'12
Jun'12
Sep'12
Unemploymen
Economy
Europe/EU
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Q. Which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people ingeneral being able to buy a property?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Priced-out yes, but job security key barrier to buying
Base: 1,960 British adults 16+, 22-28 June 2012
9
58%
56%
31%
31%
20%
12%
12%
10%
6%
5%
5%
3%
50%
59%
39%
19%
23%
11%
13%
6%
4%
4%
6%
4%
Raise deposit
Job security
Household finances
Availability of mortgages
Rising property pricesConcerns - interest rate rises
Fees and costs of buying a
Falling property prices
Level of stamp duty
Shortage of the right type of
Shortage of property for sale
Don't know
All LA/HA tenants
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23
43
42
45
35
12
% Higher % Lower
November 2011
April 2003
Q. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality oflife than you, or about the same?
But downbeat: a lost generation?
Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
10
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Hysteresis
A year of youth unemployment reduces
earnings 10 years later by about 6% andmeans that individuals spend an extra
month unemployed every year up to their
mid-30s.
These effects diminish slowly in later adult
life but are still present well into peoples'
40s..
Professor Paul Gregg and Lindsey Macmillan,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16156849
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Q.Which one of these sentences do you agree with the most?
But young believe own hard work will determine destiny
Base: 2757 11-16 year olds Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (Jan April 2012)
84%
5%
9%3%
It doesnt matter what
background youre from,anyone can be a success inlife if they try hard enough
It doesnt matter how hard you
try, youll only be successful in
life if youre from the right
background
Not statedNeither of these
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58 57
51
49 49
42 43
49
51 51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q. People have different views about the ideal society. For each of these statements, please tellme which one comes closest to your ideal.
Moving towards individualism (slowly)?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults re-percentaged to exclude dont knows Source: Ipsos MORI
% A society where individualsare encouraged to look afterthemselves
A society which emphasisesthe social and collective
provision of welfare
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55%
27%22%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Agree
Disagree
Against welfare
The government should spend more money on welfare
benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes
Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSA data
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Cohort not lifecycle effect
Base: c.2,000-4,000 GB Adults for each wave of British Social Attitudes Survey Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSA data
54+61+
65 +33-5340-60 44-64
19-32 30-43
25-38
29 and below
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
Total % agree government should spend more on welfare
15
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ComplexBritannia
reigns
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Britain: progressing but breaking
Progressing
Breaking
Source: Ipsos MORI Britain 2012
17
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13
31
26
20
610 127
22
40 3630
4031
25
39
21152111
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree
I would like Britain to be the way it used to be
Proud but backward-looking
Source: Ipsos MORI Real Trends
18
L ki h d i i i
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Q. Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be muchstronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it isnow?
A Global @dvisor June 2012 G@33 The Economic Pulse
c500-,1000 online adults per country 16/18-64
24%67%
57%54%
44%39%39%
31%25%
25%22%
21%20%
18%16%
15%15%
14%14%
12%10%
9%9%
8%7%7%
Total
Saudi Arabia
Argentina
Mexico
Turkey
*Denmark
Germany
Poland
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Great Britain
Hungary
% Much stronger /Somewhat stronger
Looking ahead: pessimism reigns 19
The UK is a good country in which to invest 20
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The UK is a good country in which to invest...
Q. Taking into account all the things which you think are important, how favourable orunfavourable is your overall opinion or impression of the UK is a good country in which toinvest
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010
69%66%
63%62%
59%59%58%
54%
52%51%51%
49%36%
33%31%30%30%
24%24%
21%21%20%
18%15%
5%9%4%
3%9%6%9%11%
13%10%9%14%17%14%17%19%13%24%32%
25%22%27%32%30%
Hungary
South Africa
Mexico
Indonesia
Brazil
Poland
Turkey
S. Arabia
ArgentinaChina
Russia
India
Italy
Canada
South Korea
Spain
US
Australia
Great Britain
GermanySweden
Belgium
France
Japan
Favourable Unfavourable
20
d k iti diff
21
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Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger,somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
and makes a positive difference
Q. Taking into account all the things which you think are important, how favourable orunfavourable is your overall opinion or impression of the UK makes a positive difference inthe world
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010
63%60%59%58%58%57%
54%51%
49%45%45%44%43%42%41%40%
38%36%
32%28%
26%22%21%
15%
7%7%9%8%7%7%7%9%20%7%18%8%8%12%9%17%14%22%17%21%
20%22%23%22%
South Africa
Indonesia
India
Brazil
Poland
Hungary
Mexico
China
Saudi Arabia
USArgentina
Canada
South Korea
Australia
Russia
Turkey
Italy
Great Britain
Spain
Sweden
FranceGermany
Belgium
Japan
Favourable Unfavourable
21
We are (rightly) self aware of some characteristics 22
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We are (rightly) self-aware of some characteristics 22
But what of achievement? 23
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But what of achievement?
Q. Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakest compared withother countries?
Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Counc
35
2211 11
7 6 5 3
-19 -19
-45
0
25 23 129 8 8 7
3
-4 -5 -8-22
University
Education
Cultural
diversity
Engineering
Design
Entrepship
leadership
New
inventions/
innovationNew
technology
Primary
& secondary
educ
system
Management
Manufacturing
Transport
network
Television Tourists
attraction
Fashion Architecture Banking/
finance
Sport PharmA Retail Luxury
goods
Film Construction Motor
industry
Language
skills
23
Inputs
Outputs
Were also not sure what want from Government 24
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Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:
Many think government has done too much, but worry about the vulnerable is increasing
Base: c500 British adults, 9 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI
June 12
May 10
June 12
May 10
32
31
30
19
33
33
38
31
15
13
14
19
8
7
5
8
% Strongly Agree % Agree % Disagree Strongly Disagree
In recent years governmentand public services have tried
to do too much, and peopleshould take more
responsibility for their own
lives (Base: 515)
I am worried that governmentand public services will do too
little to help people in the yearsahead (Base: 490)
We re also not sure what want from Government 24
Cognitive polyphasia: government intervention 25
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Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your own opinion
Cognitive polyphasia: government intervention
2012: approx. 2000 2012: Ipsos MORI Omnibus September
20 19 28 12 17
1 2 3 4 5
A: It is thegovernment'sresponsibility to
influencepeople'sbehaviour to
encouragehealthylifestyles
B: Thegovernmentshould not get
involved withinterfering inpeople's
lifestyles
Agree much
more with A
Agree much
more with BNA
25
Cognitive polyphasia: localism 26
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Cognitive polyphasia: localism
On the one hand, the publicsupport quite radical
approaches to greater localcontrol
On the other, they wantfairness, despise the
postcode lottery and wantuniformity of standards
26
Monarchy or republic? 27
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
77%
15%
8%
Monarchy or republic?
Q. Would you favour Britain becoming a Republic or remaining a Monarchy?
Base: c. 500-1,000 GB 18+ except four polls (Dec 01, Feb 02, May 02 and Apr 04) all c. 1,000 GB 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Death ofPrincess
Diana
18% in 1969
(Gallup) Republic
Monarchy
27
Trust in politics is falling 28
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0
10
20
30
40
%
Trust in politics is falling
Q. How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this countryabove the interests of their own political party?
% almost never
Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009
28
Some remarkable changes; but new challenges to come 29
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Some remarkable changes; but new challenges to come 29
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Communication & BehaviourChange in Britain 2012
Matthew Taylor
31Title
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Title
32
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33Communications & Behaviour Change
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g
34What Im going to cover
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g g
1 Why understanding society is important
2 Government communication priorities &
lessons learned
3 Looking to the future
35Factors affecting attitudes & behaviours
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Contextual
Social
Personal
System 2Rational,Logical
System 1Unconscious,Instinctive
36Choices affected by others
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Behavioural economics and qualitative research - a marriage made in heaven?
Wendy Gordon, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 53, No. 2, 2011
37The power of context
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Contextual
Social
Personal
System 2Rational,Logical
System 1Unconscious,Instinctive
38Information overload
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1986 2007
39Multi-screen lives
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Source: Ipsos Tec
Tracker Q3 2012
40What Im going to cover
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1 Why understanding society is important
2Government communication priorities &
lessons learned
3 Looking to the future
41Young People & Volunteering
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42Young People & Relationships
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43The Right to Buy
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44Armed Forces Recruitment
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45GREAT Britain
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46Older People
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47Communication Lessons Learned
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= Success+Reach Response
48Campaigns
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Creative is King
A good story,
well told
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/publications/1356/Top-10-Advertising-Lessons-Learned.aspx
49Simplicity (and social proof)
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Source: Cabinet Office Behavioural Insights Team
50Social media
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51What Im going to cover
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1 Why understanding society is important
2 Government communication priorities &lessons learned
3 Looking to the future
52Insight for communication
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Peer Research Social ListeningEthnography
Eye Tracking BiometricsSocial Spaces
53Campaign Evaluation more of the same?
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Recognisers
Non Recognisers
54Campaign evaluation in future
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Mobile Research GeolocationWeb Analytics
55Mobile & Geolocation
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15 million
customers
Phone use
Location data
Mobile Surveys
56Summary
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1. Britain in 2012 is a complex, multi-faceted society in which
resilience, tolerance and good humour can sit alongside
pessimism and individualism.2. In a distracted but connected world these aspects of society
may increasingly influence the attitudes and behaviours of
individuals
3. This presents some challenges for government communication,
but it also creates opportunities
4. Some well-known lessons in good communication still hold true,
but some new ones need to be learned
5. In the future, communication research will have to change to
understand all of this; adapting old techniques and adoptingnew methods and technologies.
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Any Questions?