who governs the imf? - ncgg.princeton.edu · nancy jacklin united states 17% of votes a. barro...
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Who Governs the IMF?Dan Honig (SAIS) and Alexander Kentikelenis (Oxford)
IPES 2015 November 13, 2015
1. Meet the IMF Board
2. The Question: What are they doing, exactly, and does it matter?
3. How We Find Out: EBMs
4. Where We Are
5. Where We Think We’re Going
Who Governs the IMF?
IMF Executive Board 2003
Nancy Jacklin United States 17% of votes
A. Barro Chambrier Gabon + 23
1.16% of votes
Murilo Portugal Brazil + 9
2.47% of votes
IMF Executive Board 2003
The Board in 2014
The IMF Board in the Literature
• IMF Board is a Blind Spot/“Black Box” (Babb 2009; Woods & Lombardi 2006)
• Dominant academic view: Board activities are meaningless
• Rationalists: Power of Shareholders (e.g. Stone 2011)
• Constructivists: Ideas & Culture of Staff (e.g. Chwieroth 2012; Nelson 2014)
• If it’s so meaningless, why does the policy community keep talking about it?
The Puzzle: Is the IMF Board full of Cheap Talk “Kabuki Theater”?
• If yes:
• Why do countries care about a seat and not just vote share?
• Why do these politically savvy EDs bother talking so darned much?
• If no:
• What happens there, and what does it tell us about who controls IMF discussions & the consequences?
• When do they exercise their power, and conversely where do staff have more authority/autonomy?
The data,3 81-27 3. /27-52 7/32 0 132-7 5: .82, 2, 237 .35 48 0/ 8 -
1 7-5 ./0-5331 . M;
II N;E
/27-52 7/32 0 132-7 5: .82,
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I F I CE
L L
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L; ; A F L 4;A
, C C 7;D C 4 NC M ; 1 LC A
II N;E 1C ML 4;A
p. 1: what topic?
The data,3 81-27 3. /27-52 7/32 0 132-7 5: .82, 2, 237 .35 48 0/ 8 -
1 7-5 ./0-5331 . M;
II N;E
/27-52 7/32 0 132-7 5: .82,
1C ML -P MLCN ; 1 LC A
I F I CE
L L
LL ; 4;A
5O; ;R 4M B; 7 ; ; LC R -F A 4 L EC L C L; 4;A5 F; C;R LC E /9 MEL;LC ;
L; ; A F L 4;A
, C C 7;D C 4 NC M ; 1 LC A
II N;E 1C ML 4;A
p. 2: who attends?
/
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,3 81-27 3. /27-52 7/32 0 132-7 5: .82, 2, 237 .35 48 0/ 8 -
1 7-5 ./0-5331 . M;
II N;E
/27-52 7/32 0 132-7 5: .82,
1C ML -P MLCN ; 1 LC A
I F I CE
L L
LL ; 4;A
5O; ;R 4M B; 7 ; ; LC R -F A 4 L EC L C L; 4;A5 F; C;R LC E /9 MEL;LC ;
L; ; A F L 4;A
, C C 7;D C 4 NC M ; 1 LC A
II N;E 1C ML 4;A
p. 3+: who says what?
/
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The data
The database
Thus far…
• Systematized data for 2,107 discussions between 1995 and 2006 (eventually 1990-2010)
• 117,523 lines of code
• 28,944,930 words (approx. 2.6mil words per year)
Attending & commenting
ED Showing Up and Overall Comment Length Both Plausibly Proxy Importance
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America & the Carribean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-saharan Africa
.8 1 1.2 1.4
EAP ECALAC MENASAS SSA
Low income countries
Heavily indebted poor countries
UN Least Developed Countries
Small States (pop < 1.5 mil)
WB Fragile & Conflict States
.8 1 1.2 1.4
LIC HIPCLDC SmallFragile
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America & the Carribean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-saharan Africa
-200 0 200 400
EAP ECALAC MENASAS SSA
Low income countries
Heavily indebted poor countries
UN Least Developed Countries
Small States (pop < 1.5 mil)
WB Fragile & Conflict States
-200 0 200 400
LIC HIPCLDC SmallFragile
China focuses on East Asia Russia focuses on
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
Saudi Arabia focuses on the Middle
East
Historic Ties Matter Systematically for “Big 8” Countries
…& Financial Ties….
…. & Power & Alliances
Preliminary Conclusions• Board behavior seems to proxy dyadic CSTS
importance
• Different EDs behave differently in response to similar prompts (e.g. Russia v. rest on UN Affinity)
• EDs exercise more authority in some cases, less in others - thus staff autonomy varies as well
“Who Governs” a function of time, history, and moment - need to decompose to find both de facto answer in any
case, and thus to assess effects thereof
Where To Next?1. Fine-grained analyses of major shareholders’
behavior
2. More nuanced analysis beyond the ‘big 8’
3. Content analysis methods for examining what different constituencies care about
4. Linking observed attention / comments in Board meetings to organizational outputs & impacts for countries
020
040
060
080
01,
000
UGANGA
KENZMB
ZWEGHA
ZAFMWI
RWAGMB
TZASLE
CMR ERILB
RNAM
MUSSYC BDI
BWALS
OSWZ
Mean comment length, Anglophone SSA countriesmean of USAspeak mean of DEUspeak
mean of FRAspeak mean of GBRspeak
020
040
060
080
0
CIV BFA NERZAR
COGRWA
GABTGO
BENTCD
GIN MLICMR
SENMDG
MUSSYC BDI
GNQCAF
COM
Mean comment length, Francophone SSA countriesmean of USAspeak mean of DEUspeak
mean of FRAspeak mean of GBRspeak
Table 4: Effects by Type of Discussion: ED Appearance
Table 5: Effects by Type of Discussion: Speaking Length
Table 6: Effects by ED