who is this newsletter for? this newsletter is not for you if · 24.11.2016 · if required...

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Week 24- 2016-Nov-19

Who is this newsletter for? You want to learn to actively manage your portfolio for above market performance.

You’re a small investor who wants to use a system taking most likely about 3 hours per week

This newsletter is not for you if

If you already generate >20% per annum compound…you don’t need this advice.

If you can’t control your emotions…to actively trade…(specifically it’s too painful to

sell when you need to)

You have less than 3 hours per week to manage your portfolio.


Current Portfolio Valuation. (up 15% per annum)

Portfolio Valuation 2016/Nov/19 is $266,107. According to Lincoln the portfolio is increasing at a

rate of 14.71% per annum.


Comment. We now have 8 stock holdings

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% 1

Losers 0%-5% 2

Gainers 0%-5% 1

Gainers 5.1%-10% 1

Gainers10.1% - 20% -

Gainers 20%-30% 2

Gainers 30%-40% -

Gainers >40% 1

Portfolio comment. The portfolio had another down week. We’re sitting on $46k in cash or about

17% of the portfolio. That’s waiting for a time when we’re surer the market is in “gain mode”.

There seems to have been a significant shift in the mentality of the market in recent weeks. Long

term bonds, medium term bonds and short term bond prices have all dropped, indicating that

interest rates have started to rise. Stocks that suffer from higher interest rates have started to move

down, sometimes sharply.

What does this all mean for the newsletter portfolio. I think we simply continue with our strategy of

buying stocks with good fundamentals provided that the market is moving up and the stocks are

moving up. We’ll also sell stocks that the market no longer likes when they hit our sell triggers. In

the event that there are no stocks to buy or hold…then we’ll sit out and wait for the stars to align. In

a strong bear market, we’ll probably hunt for some good low priced, high quality yield stocks. This is

a marathon not a sprint.


Status of US Markets on 2016-Oct-29.

Dow. Closed Green for the week futures very slightly RED on Saturday

S&P 500 was Green for the week. Futures is slightly RED on Saturday.

Nasdaq. Red for Week. Futures RED…

Russell 2000 Red for week, Futures Green

Vix….has dropped sharply over the week and is Red on Saturday….a Green signal for the newsletter portfolio.


status of Australian Markets

XAO All Ordinaries Index. Closed RED

XMD Midcap 50 closed RED

XSO Small Ords closed RED

XVI Volatility Index down sharply, a Green signal.

In summary Green(ish)/RED(ish). This doesn’t look like a rising market. The newsletter portfolio will

sit out for another week or a strong series of moves


Comments on Star and Borderline Stocks.

Stocks in Sell Territory. If I had these stocks I should have sold out.

Stocks that closed Green for week AND are rising at above 20% per annum (based on ROAR) AND are ‘above the line’. In other words worth thinking about as a buy.

Star Stocks BAL, BAP, COH, CTX, EVN, HVN, PMV, RCG, RFG, RHC, SRX, VTG

Star Stocks SRV**,

Borderline Stocks APE, CAR**JBH OFX, REA, TGR, TPM, VOC,WEB

Borderline Stocks AMA**, BBN, MNF,

Note…all other Star and Borderlines are in hold territory.

Charts worth thinking about.

CKF. Closed green for the week, is above the line. ROAR is approaching 20%. Nice looking

chart.

Note…there’s still quite a bit of red above, will we get a Christmas rally?


Selling Report. All Newsletter portfolio stocks are in the “hold territory” on our charts.

ALL is still close to being sold…whilst it was green this week it got a reprieve…can this continue…who

knows..

CCP also looks close…its hit the top red line…but not yet Chandelier stop loss…again if not decent

green this week will probably be gone.

RFF is going sideways. The fundamentals look pretty darn good…wonder what will happen?

SSM is still perilously close to our sell signal…a hair’s breadth so to speak…can it hold on…hope so or

else it’s gone also


Buying Report.

No buys this week…and as previously mentioned…we planned to sit out this week. We have

about $46k in cash ready to go when conditions are right.


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for

purchase if conditions are right this week The research for this section wasn’t completed this week as we’ve decided to sit out the

market.

From last week’s shortlist…here’s a list of stocks that closed green for the week.

ALQ, BEN, CGF, ECX, ISU, MLD, SRV…the others closed RED and WHC especially closed sharply down

(from $3.15 to $2.55)

Stock Chart Score out of 31

Comment Decision

Unless there’s a strong and definite move next week in US markets over several days which is then

followed by Australia..I’m sitting out.


Bonus Charts:

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

ALQ This is a large cap stock which has “Crossed up” and risen quite steadily since January this year. It has strong financial health and could possibly attain borderline and star stock status in future if the forecasts come true.

CKF Closed Green for the week and looks close to hitting growth of 20% per annum. Would likely make the short list if this were a buying week for the newsletter portfolio.

HVN I sold this stock as it clearly crossed my stop loss point.


Parting comment

Bond prices have continued to drop sharply. AGAIN indicating that perhaps interest rates and

inflation is on the move. 30 year bonds look to have dropped from 175 to 153 (-12.6%), 10 year

notes from about 133 to 125 (-6%), 5 year notes from 122.5 to 118.5 (-3.2%) and 2 year notes from

about 109.5 to 108.7 (-.7%).

But what does it all mean. What should we do with this information

Personally I think the answer is the same as last week…I’m not going to worry about my

understanding of the fundamentals as let’s face it the answer is not that clear there will be many

winners and losers, the response from governments, trading partners, manufacturers, credit

providers and so forth is an amazing web of relationships to think about.

I’m also Not to do nothing and freeze. Instead the newsletter portfolio will wait for rising markets,

then we’ll buy rising stocks with good fundamentals and we’ll quickly jump out and conserve capital

if required whenever stocks hit sell signals.

If the market tanks and suffers badly…then we might hunt for and buy defensive companies that are

paying decent and safe dividends and park there until the worm inevitably turns again.

That’s the plan for this portfolio. What’s your plan?

Until next week happy investing and I really mean that. If you’re worried and on edge and don’t

know what to do then your system may not be working for you.

Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.

I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll mark the ones that I own with (**)

who is this newsletter for? this newsletter is not for you if · 24.11.2016 · if required...

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