who should rather travel in future? tourism in … library/en...- vacations with children...

Prof.-Dr. Anja Brittner-Widmann, Dipl.-Geogr. Torsten Widmann & Dipl.-Geogr. Achim Schröder 1

Who should rather travel in future? Tourism in Germany:

between decline in the birth rate and excess of age

Prof.-Dr. Anja Brittner-Widmann

Dipl.-Geogr. Torsten WidmannUniversity of Trier

Dipl.-Geogr. Achim SchröderUniversity of Trier

ITB-Hochschulforum

Berlin, 8 March 2006


Structure

1. Changes concerning inquiries in the tourism industry

2. Prognosis of the amount of people traveling

3. Market segment „Tourism of senior citizens“

4. Market segment „Tourism with children“

5. Consequences


Quantitative changes in the demand of tourism

It is not a question if the demand potential will get smaller, but when will that happen?

Increase and decrease of the population until 2050 (in thousands)


The Effect of a changing age structure in the travel industry

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

2002 2015 2025 2050

unter 15 15-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-75 75 und älter

Age structure of the population after V5(Data in thousands)

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2003

• Increasing impact of an ageing age structure through relativeand absolute growth

• Decreasing and older-growing demand potential

• Variant travel intensities of different age cohort must be takeninto consideration.


Prognosis concerning the development of the amount of travelersaccording to VON HAEHLING et al. (2004)

And an attempt of a carry on calculation until 2050


• Until 2030: - 4% of the travelers; until 2050: - 17%

• To be able to compensate the decrease of the population, the intensity of travels should increase up to 82% (2030) or 94% (2050)!

Travelers until 2050 as a total

• Scenario based on trend prolongations of the RA 1993 – 2005 and an estimation of experts.

• Assumption of the carry on calculation:Intensities of travels will be constant from 2010 on


Travelers in the age group of 14 until under 40 years

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

V1V3V5V7V9

Development of the age group of 14 until under 40 years(data in thousands)

• Serious breaking-in of this agegroup (compared to 2002):

- 20% until 2030 (15 mill.travelers)

Source: Stat. Bundesamt 2003

- 30% until 2050 (13 mill.travelers)

Assumption of a continuousintensity of travels (RI) of 80% from 2010 on (2002: 78%)


Travelers in the age group of 40 until under 60 years

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

V1V3V5V7V9

Development of the age group 40 until under 60 years(data in thousands)

• Age group will increase until 2010 and then decrease

Increase until 2010: + 6% (compared to 2002)Total amount of travelers 18 Mill.

Afterwards decrease until 2030:- 21% (compared to 2002) Total amount of travelers 13 Mill.

- 34% in 2050 (compared to 2002)Total amount of travelers 11 Mill.

Assumption of a continuous intensity of travels (RI) of 81% from 2010 on (2002: 78%)

Source Stat. Bundesamt 2003


Travelers in the age group of 60 years and older

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

V1V3V5V7V9

Development of the age group over 60 years(data in thousands)


• Continuous increase until 2030up to 28 Mill., than stabilization

Increase until 2010: + 9.5% (14.7 Mill. travelers)assumption of an increasingtravel intensity (68% 73%)

until 2030 (compared to 2002): + 36% (18.3 Mill. travelers)

until 2050 (compared to 2002):+ 22.4% (16.3 Mill. travelers)

Assumption of a continuous inten-sity of travels (RI) of 73% from 2010 on (2002: 68%)

Boom-Market:Senior Citizens!


Boom-Market „Tourism of senior citizens“ ?

Senior citizens are not a homogenous target group!


Boom-Market of senior citizen tourism?

Senior citizens are no homogenous target group!Travel intensity of 65 to75 year-old: Travel intensity >75 year-old73% (source: Tourist Scope 2003) 48% (source: Tourist Scope 2003)


10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

V1V3V5V7V9

Target group of the 60 until 75 year-old citizensDevelopment of the age group 60 until under 75 years (data in thousands)

• Increase until 2030 up to18 Mill.,afterwards decrease down to thepresent level

• Until 2030: + 22% travelers• Boom of the “younger elderly

people“ will find an end in about15 until 20 yearsuntil 2050 - 9% travelers

Travelers until 2050: 60 until the age of under 75 years-old people




0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

V1V3V5V7V9

Target group of the over 75 year-old citizensDevelopment of the population over 75 years (data in thousands)

• Target group 75+ will be doubleduntil 2050:6 Mill. (2002) 13 Mill. (2050)

• Continuous growth of travelers

• Until 2030: + 42% travelers

• Until 2050: + 74% travelers(compared to 2002)

Travelers until 2050: over 75-year-old citizens


Boom-Market senior citizen tourism?Yes, but...

...until 2030 the “Younger Elderly“ will be the growth market! + 2.1 Mill. Travelers compared to 2002 (+ 22%)

...around 2050 the amount of „Younger Elderly“ travelers will be less than today

- 870,000 travelers compared to 2002 (- 9%)

...from 2030 on the growth of senior citizen tourism will be carried by the „Older elderly“

+ 2.3 Mill. travelers compared to 2002 (+ 74%)

Amount of travelers (in Mill.)

2002 2030 2050

Younger elderly 9.71 11.85 8.84

Older elderly 3.07 4.36 5.35


Trends in special tourism segments

• Development trends in the market segment „Senior Citizen Tourism“

„The portion of senior citizens in the tourism market will increase, They will be the growth motor of the tourism market in the future. Already in the last years the growth was pushed by senior citizens.“ (F.U.R 2004, S. 109)

• Development trends in the market sector „Tourism with children“

„Children with many parents instead of parents with many children will be the future.“ (OTT/PAPPE 2002)


Trends in the segment „Senior Citizen Tourism“

• Development of a senior citizen tourism in a short- and medium-run

- increasing travel experience influences the intensity and frequency of travels

- qualitative and of high value group and cultural travels

- medical care and a conscious way of life increases the level of activity

- also health- conscious types of vacations, bus trips and city tours

- great purchasing power of tourism goods is present

- midlife behavior is tried to be retained

• Development of a senior citizen tourism in a long-term run

- Segment is especially based on older people in the long-term run

- Differences concerning the old-age pensions and public health split the senior citizen

market into two groups of clients: Master Consumer and Cost-Conscious Consumers - both groups are very much interested in the tourism industry


Market segment „senior citizen tourism“

• Commercialization and establishment ofspecific products for older people

• Recognition and usage of the chancesfor the German tourism sector

• Building of specific, diverse offerings for older people

• Promotion for tourism of„Senior-Citizen-Couple“

• Recognition of the boom market 75+

• Making vacations possible for family members of people who are in need of care


Development trend in the market segment„Tourism with children“

• Development of tourism with children on a short- and medium-run

- the relevance of a family vacation will continue - 1-child-families are getting more and more important- Vacations with children accompanied by senior citizens will increase- single parents will travel with others in the future

• Development of tourism with children on a long-term

- the slight market decrease will stabilize in 2015- but this tendency will go in 2030


Market segment „Tourism with children“

• Single parents as no/ a target group?

• Temporary Singles

• Family tourism stays important

• Family tourism –a chance for the German tourism sector


Who will be traveling in the future: consequences

• Travelers get older

- no breaking- in in the tourism sector in future decades- back shifting tendencies will be compensated through increasing intensities of travels- the number of travelers stagnate on the present level- the age structure will change and there will be more older people

than younger in our society.

• To take the privacy and work environment into consideration

- younger target groups must not be neglected- in the future there will be more travelers under the age of 60 be traveling- importance of children- and family- friendly offerings


Further research

• Research of the changes in the travel behavior according to the age

• Monitoring of the changes in the population and dealing with the development of the intensities of travels

• Examination of the travel behavior of foreign citizens


Schröder, Achim; Widmann, Torsten; Brittner-Widmann, Anja (2005):

Tourismus und demographischer Wandel in Deutschland –Entwicklungen, Prognosen and Konsequenzen. (Materialien zur Fremdenverkehrsgeographie, Heft 63). Trier.

Erschienen im Selbstverlag Geographischen Gesellschaft Trier, Herausgeber Christoph BeckerISSN 0171-3612

Preis: € 15,-

Geographische Gesellschaft Trier Universität TrierD-54286 TrierE-Mail: [email protected]

Dipl.-Geogr. Achim SchröderUniversity of TrierGeography of Tourism and LeisureD-54286 [email protected]

ITB: 5.1/113

Prof. Dr. Anja Brittner-WidmannInternational School of Management (ISM)Tourism & Event ManagementOtto-Hahn-Str. 1944227 [email protected]

ITB: 5.1/104

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