Slide 1

Who Sprawls Most? Density in US metro areas, 1982-97 Rolf Pendall Assistant Professor, Cornell University William Fulton, Mai Nguyen, and Alicia Harrison Solimar Research Group Slide 2 Sprawl the usual views Slide 3 Land development: A key component of sprawl Some people: any development = sprawl Tracking development: USDA National Resources Inventory (NRI) Panel survey (each five years), set sample points in all counties Land cover categories; urban and built up + rural transportation = developed Land cover based, not density based (no threshold for what counts as urban) Slide 4 Development accelerating (USA) Slide 5 Regional Extremes Housing growth vs. land development 1982-97 Slide 6 Measuring density X per Y Persons per acre Households per acre Population: US Census, Authors estimates Land area: USDA National Resources Inventory, urban and built up land Both summed to PMSA level (1990 defs.) Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Slide 10 What causes the differences? growth rates demography/race income economic base topography ag productivity land value infrastructure local governance state planning rules fiscal structure public land ownership Slide 11 Structural factors (hard to change) Less density loss Faster growth 1982-97 More immigrants More urban land More elderly residents More prime farmland More density loss High density 1982 More black residents More Hispanic residents Slide 12 Political factors (can change) Less density loss More sewers Less fragmented metropolitan areas More density loss More public water without sewers State growth management laws Slide 13 Policy implications Pro-density policies Infrastructure funding, incentives (especially sewers; NOT water only) Regional planning/governance incentivesbut ONLY if pro-development + pro-preservation Efforts to reduce exclusionary zoning Cautions Density increase Income segregation? Slide 14 The California/Las Vegas Challenge: Beyond density Large, dense, one-use development pods Intense car dependence Few green corridors, neighborhood parks The next frontier: Mixed income; mixed uses; transportation choices