who’s moving in? out? · las vegas seattle denver san antonio raleigh nashville charlotte austin...
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Image Source: John Ashley, Wikimedia Commons
Who’s moving in? out?Population dynamics in Charlotte
Rebecca Tippett, PhD
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109average daily growth of Charlotte metro from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
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Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Charlotte Metropolitan Area
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1 millionresidents in 2015
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Charlotte Metropolitan Area
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2.4 millionresidents in 2015
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Charlotte Metropolitan Area
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+4.9%population growth
2010-15
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
381 metro areas
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Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
53 with population >1M
+5.6%population growth
2010-15
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Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
13 large (1M+) metros with growth>8.2%
+10.7%population growth
2010-15
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8.4% 8.4% 8.5%9.1% 9.4% 9.5%
10.5% 10.6%11.3%
11.8%12.4% 12.7%
16.6%
Las Vegas Oklahoma
City
Seattle Phoenix Charlotte Nashville Dallas Denver San
Antonio
Orlando Houston Raleigh Austin
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Charlotte 9th fastest growing large (1M+) metroPopulation growth rate, 2010-2015
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0% 50% 100%
Dallas
Phoenix
Houston
Oklahoma City
Las Vegas
Seattle
Denver
San Antonio
Raleigh
Nashville
Charlotte
Austin
Orlando
Net Migration Natural Increase
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Net migration main driver of growth across top metrosComponents of population change, 2010-2015
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0% 50% 100%
Dallas
Phoenix
Houston
Oklahoma City
Las Vegas
Seattle
Denver
San Antonio
Raleigh
Nashville
Charlotte
Austin
Orlando
Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Increase
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Domestic migration 50% or more of growth in 6 metros Components of population change, 2010-2015
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Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Population growth uneven across Charlotte metroPopulation growth rate, 2010-2015
Metro growth = 9.4%
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60%65%
70% 73% 73% 75%81%
87% 90%
100%
Mecklenburg Rowan Union Gaston Cabarrus York Iredell Lincoln Lancaster Chester
Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Net migration main driver of county growth (or loss)Net migration share of population change, 2010-2015
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How many net migrants did Charlotte MSA gainbetween 2014-15?
a) 19,665 IRS migration statistics
b) 33,756 Census population estimates
c) 34,448 American Community Survey
d) 37,558 Census population estimatesNet Migration + “Residual”
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+268Kinternal moves
89Kmoved out
123Kmoved in
Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Who moves?
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Sh
are
of
Mig
ran
t G
rou
p
Age
In-Migrants Out-Migrants Internal Movers
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
Age structure of movers similar, regardless of destination
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7%
16%22%
28%12%
24%
23%
20%
20%
40%
45%
49%
Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant
18-24 25-34
Young adults (18-34) are most likely moversYoung adult share by migration status, 2012-14
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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89Kmoved out
Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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123Kmoved in
Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau
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-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Nu
mb
er
of
Pe
op
le
Age
MSA Mecklenburg
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
Charlotte is an employment destinationNet migration by age, 2000-2010
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40%of in-migrants from other
states moved for a job
Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS
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47%of in-migrants (25-64)have a BA/BS or more
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Where do individuals move from?
25% 10% 6%
41% of in-migrants to CharlotteSource: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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But what about all those… ?
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7% move from
another country
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Top 3?
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545Mexico 1,670
India
430China
Top 3 Sending CountriesAverage annual arrivals
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Not aPUMA
Image Source: Incacity, Flickr
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau
PUMAs
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Half of in-migration is to MecklenburgShare of metro in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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New arrivals are most concentrated in Charlotte city limitsIn-migrants as share of PUMA population 1 and older, 2012-14
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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7%
16%22%
28%12%
24%
23%
20%
20%
40%
45%
49%
Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant
18-24 25-34
Reminder: Young adults (18-34) are most likely moversYoung adult share by migration status, 2012-14
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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…and they are concentrated in Mecklenburg, RowanYoung adult (18-34) share of in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Reflecting age, in-migrants less likely to own home, have familyShare of households with selected characteristics by migration status, 2012-14
66%
51%
42%
22%
40%
29%
Own Home (HH) Married Have children
Living in Charlotte 1 year ago In-migrants
Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
Homeownership higher outside central city, but still below 66%Homeownership rate of in-migrant households by PUMA, 2012-14
66% among non-in-migrant households
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Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
1.2% among non-in-migrant households
4.6% of in-migrants live in large apartment complexesShare of in-migrant households living in apartment complexes with >50 units by PUMA, 2012-14
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Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
51% among non-in-migrant households
Married in-migrants more likely in Union, York, and IredellShare of married in-migrant household by PUMA, 2012-14
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Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
42% among non-in-migrant households
Presence of children reflects different household structuresShare of in-migrant households with children by PUMA, 2012-14
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+268Kinternal moves
Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau
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83%of internal moves are
within the same county
Source: 2015 ACS
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Intra-county moves:
Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS
22% for cheaper housing
18% for better housing
or neighborhood
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Net out-flows from Mecklenburg?
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Source: 2013-14 IRS SOI
Net out-flows from Mecklenburg to neighbors
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Nu
mb
er
of
Pe
op
le
Age
Cabarrus Union York
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
Neighboring counties are family suburb destinationsNet migration by age, 2000-2010
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