Who’s Winning Michigan and Why?Presidential Politics

Matt Grossmann, IPPSR Director

StateoftheStateSurveyRound72EarlyRelease

Sample Size MarginofErrorMichiganAdults 838 3.4%LikelyRepublicanVoters 290 5.8%LikelyDemocraticVoters 262 6.1%

AmongAllAdultsCandidatePreference

SpontaneousKnowledge

Clinton 23.1% 90.6%

Sanders 22.5% 75.4%

Trump 19% 90.4%

Cruz 9.1% 60%

Rubio 8.7% 55.4%

Kasich 4.3% 24.7%

PresidentialCandidateSpontaneousRecognition7-DayWindows

0

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100

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Clinton Trump Sanders Rubio Cruz Kasich

Democrats:PresidentialVote

LikelyDemocratic

Voters

CertainDemocratic

Voters

AllDemocrats/Leaners

HillaryClinton 51.9% 55.4% 45.9%BernieSanders 46.9% 43% 39.2%

Democrats:PresidentialVoteLikelyVoters,7-DayWindows

0

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8031-Jan

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Clinton Sanders

Democrats:PresidentialVote– UnweightedLikelyVoters,7-DayWindows

0

10

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70

8031-Jan

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Clinton Sanders

Democrats:VoteByGender&AgeLikelyVoters

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Male

Female

Sanders Clinton

0 20 40 60 80 100

18-29

30-64

65+

Sanders Clinton

Democrats:VoteByRace&IdeologyLikelyVoters

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Non-White

White

Sanders Clinton0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Conservative

Middle/Lean

SomewhatLiberal

VeryLiberal

Sanders Clinton

Republicans:PresidentialVote

LikelyRepublicanVoters

CertainRepublicanVoters

AllRepublicans/

LeanersTedCruz 19.5% 20.9% 17.4%JohnKasich 8.9% 8.7% 6.3%MarcoRubio 18.1% 19.1% 16.3%DonaldTrump 36.1% 33.5% 35.9%

Republicans:PresidentialVoteProbableVoters,7-DayWindows

0

10

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6031-Jan

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Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump

Republicans:PresidentialVote- UnweightedProbableVoters,7-DayWindows

0

10

20

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6031-Jan

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Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump

Republicans:VoteByIdeology&EthnocentrismLikelyVoters

0 10 20 30 40 50

PreferWhites

PreferChristians

NotEthnocentric

Trump Rubio Cruz

0 10 20 30 40 50

Liberal

Middle/Lean

SomewhatConservative

VeryConservative

Trump Rubio Cruz

Republicans:VoteByMediaUsage&EducationLikelyVoters

0 10 20 30 40

NotaListener

RegularTalkRadioListener

Trump Rubio Cruz

0 10 20 30 40

NotaWatcher

RegularCableWatcher

Trump Rubio Cruz

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

HighSchoolorLess

SomeCollege

CollegeGrad

GradSchool

Trump Rubio Cruz

Who’s Winning Michigan and Why?Presidential Politics

Matt Grossmann, IPPSR Director