whole brain emulation, as a platform for creating safe agi anna salamon and carl shulman
TRANSCRIPT
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Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI
Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman
![Page 2: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 3: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 4: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 5: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 6: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 7: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 8: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 9: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 10: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
AGI: More change, faster
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AGIs can be copied
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AGIs can be copied
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Serial speedup
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Serial speedup
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Solving coordination problems
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Recursive self-improvement
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Recursive self-improvement
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Recursive self-improvement
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Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 21: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 22: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Intelligence + Goals= Change
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More intelligence → More change
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More intelligence → more change
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Most ways of rearranging our world would kill us
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Values vary starkly
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Arbitrary, rewirable receptors
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Threading the needle
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Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 30: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 31: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Copying specific individuals
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WBEs share our values
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WBEs share our values
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Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 36: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
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WBEs can also make AGIs. Faster.
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Eventually
WBEs
AGIstable
cessation of research
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WBEs can't rapidly self-improve
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But can try variations
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Copy what works
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Save states can improve work skills
SaveRestore
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... and stabilize goals
SaveRestore
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Single “upload clans” could take over
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Single “upload clans” could take over
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... or invent powerful AI
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... or invent powerful AI
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Values also lost through competition
See Nick Bostrom's "The Future of Human Evolution," http://www.nickbostrom.com/fut/evolution.html
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Fun
Happiness
Humangenes
Love
Play
Jobskills
Values also lost through competition
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business as usual
human extinction
stable totalitarianism
controlled intelligence explosion
uncontrolled intelligence explosion
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business as usual
human extinction
stable totalitarianism
controlled intelligence explosion
uncontrolled intelligence explosion
WBEs
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So: is our shot better or worse with WBE?
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Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 54: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 55: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
WBE can ease coordination
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Races incentivize risk-taking
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Safety infrastructure could be designed ahead of time
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Arms races and time for precautions
1940 1950 1960 1970
Year of first nuclear testUS
1945USSR1949
UK1952
France1960
PRC1964
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Forever in a day
1940 1950 1960 1970
USSR1949
UK1952
France1960
PRC1964
July 16,1945
July 17,1945
July 18,1945
July 19,1945
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WBE as platform for further tech development
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The possibility of a highly-controlled structure
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Carefully chosen, tested components
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Safety infrastructure could be designed ahead of time
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... and stabilize goals
SaveRestore
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Moral objections?
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Even without “WBE systems”, advantages to WBEs
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Reduced coordination problems
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Taking the long view
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Existence proof
?
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WBE can ease the technical challenge
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Subjectively slower computers
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Moore's Law of Mad Science
"Every eighteen months, the IQ required to destroy the world drops by one point." —Eliezer Yudkowsky
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WBE safety monitors: as fast and numerous as AIs
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WBE safety monitors: as fast and numerous as AIs
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Cognitive enhancement for WBEs
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But modified WBE can become inhuman fast
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Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 78: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Outline
Background AGI volatility Why risky
WBEs Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) WBE not stable But may help to build safe AI Can we make WBE come first?
![Page 79: Whole Brain Emulation, as a platform for creating safe AGI Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062321/56649dc95503460f94abfc58/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Can we make WBE come first?
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Inputs to WBE
Hardware Brain imaging Computational neuroscience
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Hard to budge Moore's law
And if we succeed, we accelerate AGI, too
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Could automate brain imaging
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Neuroscience models most likely bottleneck
Hardware Brain imaging Computational neuroscience
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But same inputs also speed up brain-like AI
Hardware Brain imaging Computational neuroscience
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How much boost each way?
?
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WBE from partially controlled AI
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So, what shall we do?
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business as usual
human extinction
stable totalitarianism
controlled intelligence explosion
uncontrolled intelligence explosion
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business as usual
human extinction
stable totalitarianism
controlled intelligence explosion
uncontrolled intelligence explosion
WBEs