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Why Air Forces Fail

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Why Air Force’s FailKey elements consistently present in failed Air Forces:

Airmen not trained for the task at hand

Failure to understand the nature of the threat

Misunderstanding the opponent and training for the wrong fight

Relegated to a subservient role vs. land component

Why Air Forces Fail (University Press of Kentucky, 2006)

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Categories of Failure "Dead Ducks:” Never really had a chance

Poland in 1939, France in 1940, Italy from 1933 to 1943

"Hares:” Exploited advantages, but doomed by later blunders

Germany in both World Wars and Japan in WW II

"Phoenixes:” Rose from the ashes of early defeats

Russia in both World Wars; US and Britain in WW II

Arab Air Forces; Argentines in the Falklands

Deficiencies in industrial infrastructure are key factors in most analyses of defeat, as are mistaken decisions about technology and tactics, and the neglect of logistics and pilot training.

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Strategic, Systemic FailuresAir Forces don’t fail by themselves:

Failure occurs in national, strategic context

Failure to Anticipate: Nature of war, nature of the enemy, & new technology

Failure to Learn: Organizational / systemic deficiency lessons from other Air Forces & our own

Failure to Adapt: Inherent human reluctance to adjust behavior

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Case Study of the IAF

Spectacular successes, and near catastrophic failures, offer lessons for the USAF

Six Day War

War of Attrition

Yom Kippur

Osirak, Beka’a & Beyond

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Six Day WarDecisive victory through airpower

Won in a 3 hour air campaign

454 enemy aircraft destroyed

Operation “MOKED”

Rehearsed for a year:C2 by compass / stop watch

Parallel airfield attacks, radio silence

Enemy air forces in ruins

Rest of the war about taking terrain with total air supremacy

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Six Day War LessonsLesson 1: Employment

Offensive, independent, unconstrainedAirpower won decisively vs. superior foes

Lesson 2: Planning and training Keys to flawless execution

Lesson 3: Leadership and morale Wins over superior numbers

Lesson 4: Must destroy Will to resistEnemies’ operational tempo

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War of AttritionFailure to learn, adapt & anticipate -- Egypt, Jordan & Syria simultaneous fronts

IAF: Linchpin of deterrent posture--total reliance on airpower

1967-71 period would haunt IAF by ‘73:Strategic misuse of airpower

In-lieu-of taskingFocus on terrorism

“Enslavement to the Army”Success fed NATIONAL hubris

Downed 7 Russian-flown MIG 21's in single engagement

IADS threat widely known, but deemed manageable2 jets lost per month = “cost of doing business”The “new normal” = routine milk runs against increasingly lethal IADS

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War of Attrition LessonsLesson 1: If you fixate on the immediate fight, you'll fail to achieve

strategic & operational objectives, lose skills & lives, and fail to prepare for the next fight

Lesson 2: Failure to anticipate / adapt to ENEMY innovation is lethal

Lesson 3: Dominance is perishable

Lesson 4: Hubris kills

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Yom Kippur War

Training for a major war sacrificed to fight the War of Attrition

Bad habits of routine milk runs in support of the Army

Complacency set in, having survived ZSUs, SA 2s and 3s.

Precursor to war: Massive air engagement over Syria (9/13/73)

13 MIG 21s downed with zero losses, reinforcing hubris

NATIONAL failure to anticipate the threat and correctly employ airpower

- Yet IAF’s ability to adapt ultimatelysaved the day

By Oct 73 best jets battered by 6years of combat

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Surprise AttackPrecious hours lost debating authorization

IAF pleas for preemptive strategic strike against Egypt and Syria

Enemy allowed to attack first on 2 fronts IAF jets took off under fireEngaged in DCA and CAS

IDF considered air superiority a “God-given” right

Catastrophic attrition due to robust IADs

No tactics / countermeasures against SA 6/7

Actual losses heavier than acknowledged40 % -- catastrophic attrition in fighters!

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Verge of DefeatEffort to reestablish air superiority undercut by “joint” & political concerns

Leadership couldn’t make up its mind on center of gravity

Effort shifted to the front most at risk -- in the North

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Anatomy of Failure“Smart logistics" made a great business case, but a horrible warfighting case

Didn’t anticipate the speed of consumption of resources in ferocious combat against a well prepared enemy

Price = 5000 casualties (30 % officers)

Proportionally equivalent to 430K American casualties (in just 3 weeks of combat)

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Yom Kippur War LessonsLesson 1:

Complacency KILLSUnderestimating threat KILLSPreparing to fight last war KILLS

Lesson 2:Political constraints KILL

Lesson 3:Airpower is a strategic assetTactics adapted mid-fightSteep learning curve cost 150 jets (but saved lives later)

Lesson 4:Your allies might not bail you out Applicable only to Israel?

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Osirak, Beka’a and BeyondRedemption relatively quick:

Recognition of airpower as single point failure / successF-15s and 16sWeapons School trainingPrimacy within the IDFAir Staff independent

Pay off almost immediate: The Entebbe RaidKills against MIG 21s, 23s and 25sRaid on Osirak nuke reactor Decisive victory in the Beka’a Valley

Score: 89 to 2

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Lessons ForgottenBUT, with success came new complacency

Dominance taken for grantedFuture fight seen on the ground BRAC: Re-subordination to Army Lebanon & Intifada’s 1 / 2Airmen doing in lieu of taskings -- AGAIN

Diminished effectiveness against Hezbollah

Failed to anticipate rocket impactLess effective against asymmetriesService rivalries

Result: At best a draw militarilyBut a strategic / political defeat

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Things to PonderWarfare is dynamic & unpredictable

Success & failure are cyclical

Airpower is a strategic asset, critical to victory

Good armies lose without air superiority

Redemption is possible but fleeting

Dominance erodes over time

Over-confidence sets in quickly

Don’t take air supremacy for granted

The enemy will adapt, learn and anticipate