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Why Enterprise AR Should Care About Consumer IT Martin Reynolds, GTM Gartner Consumer Research
We are entering a new era of personal computing. The cloud will replace the PC as the location where users keep their personal content, access their services, and personal preferences and
center their digital lives. It will be the glue that connects the web of connected devices they choose to use during the different
aspects of their daily life.
Technology providers and IT organizations must align to this new reality of consumerization.
Our Consumer Research Team
• 40 analysts around the globe • Covers devices, services and consumer dynamics • Works across Gartner teams • Resegmenting forecasts to common definitions • Using economic and behavioral models • Integrating social content through the research
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How Our Consumer Research Can Help AR to Help the Business Grow
• Strategy • Product development • Marketing • Market & Competitive Intelligence Key Insights for Enterprise-only Providers: - All applications must face consumers - All tools must be “sticky” - Security must be positive, not negative - Behavior and needs, not features and speeds
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Consumer Dynamics
Market Segments and Buyer Behavior
Mobile Services35%
Fixed Services19%
Video Services8%
Devices28%
Content10%
$200 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 9%
$600 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 6%
$100 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 8%
$700 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 5%
$400 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 1%
Consumer Infotainment Spending Will Grow Past $2.2 Trillion in 2014
Megatrends • A boost will come from
mobile subscribers in emerging markets.
• Broadband will be available everywhere.
• Mobile Internet will hit the mainstream.
• Social apps will upend behavior and brands.
By 2015, consumers will spend $2.8 trillion annually on digital information, and entertainment products and services
Forces
Total Services 62%
$1.2 Trillion CAGR 2010-2015 = 4%
Use Attitudinal Profiles to Target Buyers
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18%
18%
9%13%
8%
7%
10%8%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2% 7% 12% 17% 22%
ComfortableConformists
BasicSurvivors
Aspirers
Traditionalists
WorkerBees
ProfessionalAchievers
Techno Stragglers
Young FunSeekers
Tech Savants
Adoption of New TechLate adopter Early adopter
Invo
lvem
ent Most Common
Targets in 2010
Involvement = Consumer perception of importance or personal relevance of a product based on intensity of stated need across 10 parameters Based on Gartner report: "Marketing Essentials: How to Segment the Consumer Market" (G00172815)
Bigger Opportunity in
2012
Changes
4,000 Survey Completes in 2011
Consumer Devices
Mobile Operating Systems, Tablets and Smartphones
A Different Way to Look at Relationships - Behavioral Segmentation for Devices
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There are 4 categories of devices that will compete for consumers’ budgets: Ultra Mobile Notebooks, Premium Comm Devices, Media Tablets and E-readers.
Media Tablets’ strengths
Portability, Multifunction, Personalization
Media Tablets’ weaknesses
Creation
0
1
2
3
4
5Connectivity
Portability
Creation
ConsumptionUsability
Personalised
Unifunction vsmultifunction
Notebook PC
Ultra Mobile Notebook
Premium Comm Devices
Media tablets
Which Mobile OS Technologies Will Dominate the Market?
Open OS Handset Sales by Platform
Mobile OS
Mobile Browser + HTML5
Platform substitutes (e.g., Air, Qt, Flash,
Silverlight, etc.)
Scriptable mapping tools
New platforms" (e.g., augmented reality tools)
Plan devices against platforms, apps and services.
Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent
Symbian Android RIMApple iOS Microsoft LiMo FoundationBada WebOS MeeGoPalm OS Others
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Connected E-Readers Total
Connected Game Handhelds Total
Connected Imaging Devices Total
Connected Personal Navigation Device Total
Connected Portable Media Players Total
Media Tablets Total
Sales to End Users (K)
Media Tablets Change Everything
Gartner’s insight into consumer behavior can help you succeed.
300 million
Growth Changes
What Technologies Will Disrupt the Devices Market?
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Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations Trough of
Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity
time
expectations
Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2
years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10
years
obsolete before plateau
As of July 2010 Bio-Acoustic Sensing
Photonic Crystal Displays Electrofluidic and Electrowetting Display Technology
Quantum Dot Displays
Mobile Transphones
Quantum Tunneling Composite (QTC)
HD Voice Mobile High-Definition Link
Dual Noise Cancellation Ensemble Interactions
MEMS Displays Smartphone Hypervisors
MEMS Gyroscopes Mobile WLAN Access Points
Solar Power Mobile Devices Augmented Reality
High-Performance Multicore Application Processors
Voice to Text on Mobile Devices Pico Projectors
Magnetometer
Indoor Positioning
Phone Bar Code Reader Device-Embedded Biometric Authentication
Multitouch Mobile Browsers
GPS Haptics
Wireless Power Bluetooth 3.0
Near-Field Communication
Bluetooth 4.0 Gesture Recognition
Mobile Widgets 802.11n
AMOLED
802.11ac
Wi-Fi Remote Display
Volumetric and Holographic Displays
Head-Mounted Displays
Wireless Remote Display 60GHz and 5GHz
Software-Defined Radio
Mobile Devices Technology Hype Cycle
Changes
Consumer Services and Social Platforms
Wireless Transport, Social Platforms, Context-Aware Services and Apps
What's the Value of the Social Consumer?
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Reduced Cost of Operations
Increased customer service
Better and more efficient
support Happier
customers
Increased Revenues
Engaging enthusiasts
Reaching new consumers
Building Brands
Increase brand value
Increase value of goods and services sold
Social networking is critical to your business.
Context Is the "Killer App" for Mobility
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By 2015, context will be more influential to mobile consumer services and relationships than search engines are to the Web. Bottom line: Not offering context service may mean leaving one of the most effective ways of customer ownership to the competition.
Types of context services: • Location-based services — Vodafone Navigator, Foursquare • Presence — Twitter, Instagram, Google, AIM • Social networking — Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn • Mobile advertising — amAze, Mobile Posse, AdMob, iAds
Context = People + Place + Proximity + Activity
Changes
Mobile Ads Monetize Context and Social Networking: "Hyperlocal" Is the Key
Source: Mobile Advertising Forecast, March 2011
US$ Millions
Driving Factors Falling Into Place, Ready for Strong Growth
2010: 0.5% of total worldwide advertising budget 2015: >4% of budget
Grow
Consumer Applications and Services Hype Cycle
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Technology Trigger
Peak of
Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of
Productivity
time
expectations
Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years
more than 10 years
obsolete
before plateau
As of July 2010
TV Widgets
Consumer Telepresence
Context-Enriched Services Ensemble Interactions
3D TV Services
Mobile Virtual Worlds HD Voice
Mobile Sports and Fitness
Mobile Coupons
Rich Communication Suite
Ultra-High-Speed Broadband Internet
Augmented Reality
Mobile Social Networks
Mobile Application Stores
Mobile Health Monitoring Mobile Money Transfer
Mobile VoIP
Mobile Advertising
NFC Payment
Mobile Instant Messaging
Mobile Ticketing
FMC: Consumer Applications
Online Video
Mobile Learning
Indoor Positioning
Mobile Banking Mobile Widgets
Mobile Search Network DVR
Mobile E-Mail Services
Mobile OTA Payment
Mobile TV Broadcasting
Location-Based Services
Full-Track Music Downloads
Personal Navigation Residential VoIP
Mobile TV Streaming Socialcasting
Internet TV
Voice-to-Text Conversion Services
Mobile Music Streaming
Bar Code Marketing
IPTV
Changes
Summary
• Cloud is personal • Gartner has a serious consumer research effort • Our new economic and behavioral approaches
create new ways to understand products and markets
• Every technology provider and IT department has to deal with yet more new cloud realities
• We can help strategic planners, product managers and marketers align with consumer forces
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