why include opportunity in the risk process?, presentation, david hillson, london, 05 july 2016
TRANSCRIPT
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 1
Why include opportunity in the risk process?
Dr David HillsonThe Risk Doctor, HonFAPM
LONDON
TUESDAY, 5 JULY 2016
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 2
Key questions
Do opportunities exist?
If so, what are they? (and what aren’t they?)
Can opportunities be managed?
Simple six-step process
Do opportunities matter?
Problems from not managing opportunities
Benefits from proactive management of opportunities
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 3
Uncertainties are everywhere …
Some would be bad, unwelcome, unhelpful if they happened
Others would be good, welcome, helpful if they happened
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 4
Which uncertaintiesmatter?
Uncertainties that help as well as uncertainties that harm
Both matter
Both need managing proactively
…not only preventing potential problems
“Stop things going wrong”
…but also finding potential benefits
“Help things go right”
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 5
Defining opportunity
Two key dimensions
1. Uncertaintyprobability of occurrence
2. Impacteffect on objectives (positive)
Opportunity is“uncertainty that matters”
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 6
Beware fakes
Opportunity is uncertainty (may or may not happen)that matters (would affect achievement of objectives)
Opportunity is not
A benefit“Opportunity to succeed”
A response“Opportunity to act”
Scope creep“Opportunity to do something else”
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 7
Can opportunities be managed?
Forward-looking radar Early-warningEnables proactive prior positioning
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 8
Managing opportunity:Simple questions
What are we trying to achieve?
What might help us to achieve it?
Which of those are most important?
What could we do about them?
(Do it!) Did it work?
What’s changed?
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 9
Monitor and
review
Define
objectives
Identify
uncertainties
that matter
Assess &
prioritise
Plan
responses
Implement
responses
From questions to processWHAT ARE WE
TRYING TO
ACHIEVE?
WHICH ARE
THE MOST
IMPORTANT?
WHAT MIGHT
HELP US TO
ACHIEVE IT?
WHAT COULD
WE DO
ABOUT THEM?
DO IT !!
DID IT WORK?
WHAT’S
CHANGED?
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 10
Why bother? (1)
What if you didn’t?
O B J E C T I V E
PE
RF
OR
MA
NC
E S
HO
RT
FA
LL
IF
UN
TR
EA
TE
D
RE
SID
UA
L
SH
OR
TF
AL
L
AF
TE
R
TR
EA
TM
EN
TP
AR
TIA
L
RE
CO
VE
RY
FILL THE GAP!
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 11
Why bother? (2)
Increased team motivation
Encourages innovation & creativity
Fewer missed opportunities
More benefits captured
Improved success rate
What if you did?
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 12
FINAL THOUGHTS
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 13
Opportunity facts
Opportunity is uncertainty that matters
Opportunity can be managed with a simple process
Managing opportunity brings benefits
WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH RISK?
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 14
Opportunity and risk (1)Opportunity is “uncertainty that matters”
SOURCE “UNCERTAINTY …” “… THAT MATTERS”
ISO 31000 (2009)
“Effect of uncertainty…”
“… on objectives.”
PMI PMBoK®
Guide (2013)“An uncertain event or condition …”
“… that if it occurs has a positive or negative effect on a project’s
objectives.”
APM Body of Knowledge (2012)
“An uncertain event or set of circumstances …”
“… that, should it or they occur, would have an effect on achievement
of one or more project objectives.”
Management of Risk [M_o_R] (2010)
“An uncertain event or set of events …”
“… that should it occur will have an effect on the achievement of
objectives.”
Institution of Civil Engineers RAMP (2014)
“A possible occurrence …”
“… which could affect (positively or negatively) the achievement of the
objectives for the investment.”
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 15
Opportunity and risk (2)Opportunity can be managed in a simple process
Monitor and
review
Define
objectives
Identify
uncertainties
that matter
Assess &
prioritise
Plan
responses
Implement
responses
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 16
Opportunity and risk (3)Managing opportunity brings benefits
Not identifying and capturing opportunities means GUARANTEED FAILURE
Finding and managing opportunities leads to INCREASED SUCCESS RATE
WHY WOULDN’T YOU??
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 17
Summary
Opportunities exist and they matter
An opportunity is the same as a threat (apart from sign of impact)
Opportunities and threats can be managed together in an integrated risk process
Do it because it works !
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 18
Watch again on RiskDoctorVideo…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEuXOtY8k9s
© 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 19
For further information
Dr David HillsonThe Risk Doctor Partnership
+44(0)7717.665222
www.risk-doctor.com
YouTube.com/RiskDoctorVideo
This presentation was delivered
at an APM event
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