Wg Cdr Raj MongiaResearch Fellow

Centre for Air Power Studies

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What to expect?• New Status – Rise as a Great Power

• Beijing assert its interests and willingness to prevail even at the expense of appearing villain

• Is China prepared to play positive leadership role in 21st century?

• How is China’s foreign Policy behaviour after global downturn in 2008?

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Metamorphosis

Policy of “taoguangyanghui” to bid time

Policy of “mulin zhengce” for good neighbours

“Learn to live with the hegemon”

“bottom-line of national survival”

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No longer avoided confrontations

Core Interests

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Metamorphosis (Cont…)

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Metamorphosis (Cont…)

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Metamorphosis (Cont…) – Sino-India

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Metamorphosis (Cont…) – Wei qi

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China – Victim or Culprit?

increasing confidence in its ability to deal with the West and the territorial disputes with its neighbours

frustration over the perceived anti-China forces trying to prevent China’s rise to its rightful place

uneasiness among Chinese leaders

More willing to participate in world affairs

US neither want to see China democratic nor to be richer and stronger

Rapid economic growth of China brought about unprecedented resource vulnerability

human rights, media freedom, Tibet, Taiwan, pollution and relationships with neighbouring countries

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Suspicion

FrustrationCore Interests

Economic and Political Uncertainties

Unrest in Tibet and in Muslim region of Xinjiang

Communist ideology loosing its charm

China – Victim or Culprit?

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Global Power - Yes Global Responsibility - NoChina’s 3 core interests:

• To maintain its fundamental system and state security.

• To maintain state sovereignty and territorial integrity.

• Continued stable development of its economy and society.

China’s changing international role

• Chinese government should abandon the passive ‘Tiaoguang Yanghui’ policy

and take a great power (daguo) responsibility to ensure a just world order.

• Government should adopt a modified taoguangyanghui policy to give more

emphasis on youshuo zuowei (striking some points/successes) and take a more

active role in persuing certain policy objectives particularly in China’s core

interest issue areas.

• To continue the low-key policy and avoid taking a leadership position on most

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Conclusion

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