why now, why us? never waste a crisis a classic public health issue health arguments not heard mike...
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Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments not heard
Mike Gill Co-chair Climate and Health Council
Food Production
Up to 2003Up to 2003– Food production Food production
>x2 since 1960 >x2 since 1960 – Food production per Food production per
capita had growncapita had grown– Food prices had Food prices had
fallenfallen– Percent of Percent of
undernourished undernourished fallen fallen
– But the benefits are But the benefits are uneven, with 850 uneven, with 850 million people still million people still hungryhungry
– Significant Significant environmental environmental degradationdegradation
Water
15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (unsustainable (low to medium certainty)low to medium certainty)
350m years-worth of CO264m (354-290m years ago) = Carboniferous
…which we are burning VERY fast
150 years 100 years 50 years NOW
First Oil Well
4142 cars, 10 miles concrete
road in US
650,000,000 cars
4,800,000,000 passenger flights
First commercial
jet ticket
• 205,733 kg of coal…..
• 92,652,841 litres of gas….
• 156,284 litres of oil…..
…….. A SECOND
0
5
10
15
20
25
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Bil
lio
ns
of
ton
nes
of
CO
2
• Not only are we producing record levels of greenhouse gases, we are removing the planet’s ability to absorb them
• Half of all forests have been destroyed in the 50 years prior to 2000 = 20 football pitches every minute
WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2008LIVING PLANET INDEX
“Ground-living vertebrates have declined by 25%, with most of the slump occurring since 1980. Marine species held fairly steady until the late 1990s before falling sharply to give an overall drop of 28%. Freshwater species have decreased by 25%, primarily since the late 1980s.”
MASS EXTINCTION EVENTS
500 million 400 million 300 million 200 million 100 million
488 million
Cambrian-Ordovician
444 million
Ordovician- Silurian
360 million
Devonian-Carbiniferous
251 million
Permian-Triassic
200 million
Triassic-Jurassic
65 million
Cretaceous- Tertiary70% species die
over 20m years
96% marin
e/
70% land
species die
20% marin
e
species die
50% species
die over
many
thousands of
years
“A 1998 survey by the American Museum of Natural History found
that 70% of biologists view the present era as part of a mass
extinction event, the fastest to have ever occurred. Some.. predict the
extinction of one-half of all species in the coming decadesin the coming decades”
Most global health problems are ‘self inflicted’:
• War
• Inequality
• Tobacco
• Alcohol
• Air pollution
• Road trauma
• Obesity
• Malnutrition
• Physical inactivity
• Climate Change
But climate change will soon be irreversible
Although climate change can cause illness and death...
- Heat-related deaths
- Skin cancer and cataracts
- Injuries and infectious diseases as a result of increased
flooding
- Respiratory disease
- Insect-borne disease
- Food poisoning
…there are even greater risks of widespread trauma, disease and deaths through civil unrest:
• Crop failure >> famine >> deaths
• Water shortages >> human conflict >> deaths
• Mass migration >> human conflict >> deaths
• Economic collapse >> human conflict >> deaths
• Resource wars >> human conflict >> deaths
• Ecosystem collapse >> human conflict >> deaths
Melting glaciers in the Himalayas are wreaking havoc in Bangladesh leading to a rise in illegal migration to India. This has prompted India to build an immense border fence in attempt to block newcomers.
28 February 2006
India builds a 2,500-mile barrier to rival the Great Wall of China
On the obesity epidemic….
‘A more enlightened health sector would have engaged early with other sectors in relation to a foreseeable (although mostly not foreseen) crisis, reducible by intersectoral planning in relation to urban design, transport systems, food production, and marketing.’
McMichael AJ et al The Lancet, 374; 2123 - 2125
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments not heard
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; 1992) committed nations to work collectively to engage in…….
“minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment”
(Article 4, Item f)
Why did Copenhagen not get further?
Developing countries want developed countries to
• allow them to develop, and pay for the cost of the clean energy they need to do so
• show responsibility for the current mess by committing to huge reductions in their own GHG emissions
• support them financially in necessary adaptation
Three challenges
Structured assessments of risk
Development of adaptation strategies
Telling the co-benefits story
The Co-benefits story - headlines
What’s good for the climate is good for health
Low carbon societies are the next great health advance
Mitigation actions will result in huge, immediate, and certain health benefits
Supported by a consortium of funding bodies coordinated by the Wellcome TrustDepartment of Health NIHR, Economic and Social Research Council, Royal College of Physicians, Academy of Medical Sciences, US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHO
Involving over 50 researchers from UK, USA, India, Canada, Australia, Spain, France, New Zealand, WHO Geneva
The Task Force on Climate Change Mitigation and Public Health
Indian Stoves – Traditional and Modern
Gasifier Stove with Electric Blower(battery recharged with
cell phone charger)
Traditional Biomass Stove
Per meal
~15x lessblack carbon and
other particles
~10x less ozoneprecursors
~5x less carbonmonoxide
Health benefits of the Indian stove programme
Deaths from ALRI Deaths from COPD Deaths from IHD
Avoided in 2020 (%) 30.2% 28.2% 5.8%
Total avoided 2010-20 240,000 1.27 million 560,000
ALRI=acute lower respiratory infections. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IHD=ischaemic heart disease.
GHG benefits of Indian stove programme
• Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone precursors could amount to the equivalent of 0.5-1.0 billion tonnes of CO2 eq over the decade
• Cost <$50 per household every 5 years
Impact in UK 2010 population in 1 year UK household energy efficiency(combined improvements)
Premature deaths averted ~ 5400
Mt-CO2 saved (vs 1990) 55
Health and GHG benefits (UK)
Action to reduce EuropeanCO2 emissions by 30% -> savings “as much as €76
billion per year.”
Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL), Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E) and WWF
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments not heard
Group Ranking Tell the truth (%)
Not tell the truth (%)
Doctors 1 91 6 Teachers 2 87 8 Television news readers
3 66 24
Professors 4 74 11 Judges 5 72 19 Scientists 7 64 23 Civil servants 11 45 42 Government ministers
14 20 72
Politicians generally
15 19 73
Journalists 16 (last) 13 79
Public trust in different professions
Source: MORI - UK survey
What can we do?
• Illustrate the clear links
• Articulate the major benefits of appropriate action
• Lead personal life styles which are climate-friendly
• Sharpen our advocacy
The Times May 25, 2009
Climate change is the cholera of our era
The medical profession needs to wake up: we should be in the vanguard of the green revolution
Muir Gray
...but what can I do?
• Ensure your MP, your line manager / Chief Executive, your Chairman and non-exec.s, your local politicians know that MANY health professionals are seriously concerned. Numbers matter.
• Join the Climate and Health Council
• Set up an Irish Climate and Health Council
• Sign the Climate and Health Council pledge at www.climateandhealth.org
Why now, why us?
• Never waste a crisis
• A classic public health issue
• Health arguments contain good news, come from a trusted source, and can transform the political context
John Holdren, White House science advisor:
We are driving a car with bad brakes in a fog and heading for a cliff. We know for sure the cliff is out there. We just don’t know exactly where it is. Prudence would suggest we should start putting on the brakes