why operators need developers

1© 2008 Alan Quayle

Why Operators Need DevelopersAlan Quayle

Business and Service Developmentwww.alanquayle.com/blog


Mobile Application Revenue could reach $6B by 2013, 2008 is was $118M (US), $240M (Global)

Broader Mobile Data Revenue breakdown by type of service, 2008-2014

Source: Pyramid Research Mobile Data Forecasts, Q1 2009

$6B Mobile application revenue is part of broader $46B mobile data revenue opportunity by 2013


Re-engineering the Web

’90-’05Development of the

basic platform.

Focus on infrastructure, capacity expansion and mass

market connectivity.

<100kbps

’00-’10Focus on user

experience, open programmable systems,

connecting people.

Partner with media companies, social networking, advertising based models, IP

control and QoS.

<10Mbps

’10-’20Web becomes intelligent, understand / anticipates users needs – rise of the

‘trusted agent.’

Fundamental shift in business model, dumb or smart pipe? Question mark of operators’

role as ‘trusted agent.’

<100Mbps

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

Web 3.0

Era Date Characteristic Access Operator Implications

Can Operators become the Trusted Agent?


Power of Devices drives Peer to Peer

Assumptions ShatteredFaster CPUs, 3D graphics

Massive storageHigh definition displays

Media centricSmartphone penetration >50%

Always OnlineMultiple PDP context

Multiple accessApplication driven

Web-centric

Intelligently ConnectedPush as well as pull

Pervasive P2PSmart UIs

Context aware

Intelligence is now also at the edge


Customer’s Perceptions are Changing

OtherVoice

Utility

Productivity

PIM

MultimediaBrowsing

Games

Messaging

Source: Nokia Smartphone 360 SurveyTime allocated to different applications

Applications are no longer ‘web’ or

‘telecom’ services –they’re just apps.

User doesn’t care if message delivered by SMS, MMS, IM

or email.

Subscribers are no longer ‘voice subscribers,’

they’re Internet subscribers – voice

is just an app.Access to

multimedia is no longer constrained

by the network

Mobile broadband starts to substitute fixed broadband

Voice makes up an increasingly small percentage of a smartphone’s usage, critical to embed such capabilities into other apps/processes


Web-based Service Providers are Innovating Faster in Service Providers Core Business

And customers now expect this rate of innovation from their service providers


Which means that…..

Operators must act now or become a dumb pipe

•Broadband is the growth engine for telecom.•Increasing access capacity increases web-service capabilities

•Broadband is an enablers for all services•Market boundaries diminish as customers expectations change.•Move from vertically to horizontally integrated

•Growth of Web 2.0 community services•“Freemium” models•‘Boiling Frog’expansion into voice

•Web 2.0 start to cannibalize telco’s services•Voice, messaging, IPTV•Multi-play becomes multi-access

Fixed and mobile Broadband is an enabler

Services independent of the network

Rapid usage growth and innovation


Why Operators are Deploying SDPs

Access & Distribution

Intelligent Connectivity Applications ContentWholesale

Brokering

Utility access where differentiation is price and network quality.

Bit Pipe

Content and Service Provider

Smart PipeOpen access, controlled and monetized QoS, Billing, Data Mining, Capability Wholesale, Ad Broker

There will be no clear cut between the different scenarios, multiple business models and revenue modules will co-exist.


Re-Launch

An Operator’s Product Development Process

Opportunity Identified

18-30 months

Market Research

Find Budget

New product development processLaunch

12-18 months


What’s Changed?

Expectations


What customers expect

6-12 months

Weekly

18-30 months

4 months


High StreetStores

SubsidizedPhones

NetworkControl

EcosystemControl

CustomerRelationship

Brand

BillingRelationship


Operators Service Innovation Process is Broken


ServiceProvider

UtilityConnectivity

We’ve been talking about it for over a decade, but now its the customer that’s going to decide

Operators need Applications…. using their network

why operators need developers

Technology