why the middle east is a vital interest to the us

8/3/2019 Why the Middle East is a Vital Interest to the US

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Proven Oil Reserves by Region


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The Oil Factor in AmericanForeign Policy


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U.S.Slide to Import DependencyLate 1940s, for the first time, the US began to import oil

1950s, 10% of US oil consumption was imported

1960s, 18% of US oil consumption was imported

1972, US oil production began an irreversible decline

1973, the share of imports in US oil consumption reached30%

1976, imports reached 40%

2000, imports reached 53%2005, imports were 60% of consumption

By 2025, the United States will have to import more than70% of its oil and gas; current trends suggest that pointmay be reached even earlier


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President Franklin Roosevelt, 1943 - 45

The defense of SaudiArabia is a vital nationalsecurity interest of theUnited States.

President Roosevelt, 1943

Oil for security

agreement, March 1945.


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President Dwight Eisenhower, January 1957

I deem it necessary to seekthe cooperation of theCongress . to include theemployment of the armedforces of the United States tosecure and protect theterritorial integrity andpolitical independence of

such nations of the MiddleEast, requesting such aid,against overt armedaggression from any nationcontrolled by InternationalCommunism.


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President Richard Nixon, July 1969 and 1972

we shall provide a shield if a nuclear powerthreatens the freedom of a nation allied with us orof a nation whose survival we consider vital to our

security. in cases involving other types of aggression, weshall furnish military and economic assistance whenrequested in accordance with our treatycommitments.

In the Middle East, the U.S. will Assist in themodernization of the armed forces ofIran andSaudi Arabia to enable them to provide effectivelyfor their own security and to foster the security ofthe region as a whole.


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President Jimmy Carter, 1980

Let our position beabsolutely clear: any

attempt by outside force togain control of the PersianGulf region will be regardedas an assault on vitalinterests of the United

States of America, andsuch an assault will berepelled by any meansnecessary including militaryforce. "


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Reagan Administration:NationalSecurity Decision Memorandum, 1Americas dependence on imported oil isapproaching 50%.

The Persian Gulf remains the primarysource of global oil supplies.

Insuring an uninterrupted flow of oilfrom the Persian Gulf fields is a majornational security interest of the U.S.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff are directed to

develop plans to preserve the flow of oilfrom the Persian Gulf against allpotential threats: major world powers,regional powers, and domesticupheavals.


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President G.W. Bush, January 2006

America is addicted to oil.

5% of the earths population

Accounts for 25% of globaldaily consumption

Supplies only 9% of global oilproduction

Holds less than 3% of theworlds proved oil reserves.


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The National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup Report, 2002A significant disruption in world oil supplies couldadversely affect our economy and our ability to

promote key foreign and economic policy objectives,regardless of the level of U.S. dependence on oilimports.

By 2020, Gulf oil producers are projected to supply

between 54 and 67 percent of the worlds oil. Thus,

this region will remain vital to U.S. interests.

But our engagement will be global. The U.S. mustalso work for greater oil production in the Western

Hemisphere, Africa, and the Caspian.


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USOil Demand versus Production

Red = Consumption

Black = Production


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America is Not the Only Country with a

Growing Appetite for Oil


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TotalWorld Oil Demand


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ButWill The Oil Be There?"I think in total the outlook is much too highfor production and its unrealistic for the worldto be expecting such high numbers from all of

the producers, including Saudi Arabia. Theyrenot only overestimating the Middle East, but

they overestimate non-OPEC, theyoverestimate Russia, they overestimate thewhole global resource base. And I think this isa rather dangerous situation for the US

government policy to be based on."

Sadad al-Husseini, former vice-president ofSaudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco


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Peak Oil


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Options for CopingW

ith the EnergyCrisisAccelerate the switch out ofoil into renewable sources of

energy, especially windpower, biomass, tidal powerand solar.

Shift into unconventional

sources of oil - tar sands,extra heavy oils and gas toliquids processing

Be prepared to use militaryforce to ensure continued

access to remaining reserves.


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Additional Oil Potential in the U.S.

Opening federal lands off the US east

and west coast could yield about 18billion barrels of oil.

Drilling in the Alaska National WildlifeReserve could add 4-15 billion barrels.


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The Impact?

First output from any new fields would be inabout 10 years.

The oil produced would go to the worldmarket not just to the United States.

The combined reserves of the new fieldswould yield 22-33 billion barrels of oil.

This would meet current US consumption forabout 3-4 years, but would only supply worlddemand for 9 - 14 months.


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What About OilShale?

Some 800 billion barrels of kerogen (apetroleum precursor) may be recoverable

from oil shale deposits in the Wyoming-Colorado-Utah.

If mined and refined, the 800 billion barrelsof kerogen could meet U.S. demand for 400

years. But at what cost?Energy in versus energy out

Water requirements (6 to 1 ratio, water to oil)

One ton of oils shale yields 45 gallons of kerogen


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The JCS

Response to President ReagansNSDM 1 in 1981

Logistic realities preclude our being able to assurean uninterrupted flow of oil from the Persian Gulfagainst any of the scenarios postulated in NSDM 1.

Correcting the deficiencies requires:U.S. contingency forces stationed in the area.

Bases for pre-positioned heavy equipment, supplies,munitions, fuels, etc.

Cultivating regional allies that will serve as a vanguard forU.S. forces and/or handle low level intervention crises.


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Initial Attempt to Improve TheStrategic U.S. Position in the Gulf

U.S. actively sought Arab states agreement fordeveloping a US base and force structure in theregion sufficient to defend U.S. strategic energyinterests in the Gulf and was universally refused.

Rapid Deployment JointTask Force (RDJTF) begins

expansion into the major unified command, CentralCommand (CENTCOM).

As an interim measure, U.S. again tries the regionalproxy approach.


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USTilts Towards Iraq

Removes Iraq from its list ofnationssupporting terrorism

Washington extends $400 millioncredit guarantee for US exports toI

raqCIA establishes direct Washington-Baghdad link to provide militaryintelligence

US approves sale ofdual usematerials to Iraq, e.g. aerial spray

equipment, pesticide and fertilizerchemicals

Administration condemns Iraqs useof chemical weapons but blocks UNand congressional action againstIraq


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The Road to GulfWar IIraq attempts to gain leadership of

Arab world and OPEC.

Iraq

Threatens Kuwait

Dispute over Warbah andBubiyan

Border Disputes

Large war debt owed to Kuwait

and Saudis from Iran-Iraq warAl-Rumaylah Oil Field - Iraqaccuses Kuwait of extracting oilfrom this field.


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The Road to GulfWar I

On 19 July a cable was sent to

American embassies throughout theMiddle East with new guidance onthe Iraq-Kuwait dispute. . . . Itstressed two points.

. . . .F

irst, disputes should be settledby peaceful means

. . . .Second, the United States takesno position on the substance ofbilateral issues concerning Iraq andKuwait. James A. Baker III, ThePolitics of Diplomacy, page 271.

March 1990 US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducts a CommandPost Exercise with a Iraqi invasion scenario.

25 July 1990 -- US Ambassador April Glaspie tells Iraq that their disputewith Kuwait is not a US matter


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The Timeline of the War2 Aug 1990 - Iraq invades Kuwait.9 Aug First elements of ReadyBrigade of 82ndAirborne arrive inSaudi Arabia A speed bump.

31 Oct Half of eventual US invasion

force is in theater

7 Jan 1991 full complement of USforces in theater

17 Jan 1991 - Air war begins23 Feb - Ground war begins

28 Feb Cease fire takes effect.

3 March Schwarzkopf accepts Iraqi

surrender.


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A Moment of Candor?

"We're there becausethe fact of the matter is

that part of the worldcontrols the worldsupply of oil, andwhoever controls thesupply of oil would havea stranglehold on the

American economy andon indeed on theworld economy."

Secretary of DefenseDick Cheney, January1991


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Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategies,

Forces And Resources for A New Century

Written by 2000 under the direction of Dick Cheney, DonaldRumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Jeb Bush, and Lewis ScooterLibby

and published byThe Project for the New American Century.

This document outlines a "blueprint for maintaining global USpreeminence, precluding the rise of a great power rival, andshaping the international security order in line with Americanprinciples and interests. This American grand strategy must beadvanced as far into the future as possible."

The plan calls our military, "the cavalry on the new Americanfrontier."


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Regarding Iraq, The DocumentSays

"The United States has for decades sought toplay a more permanent role in Gulf regional

security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraqprovides the immediate justification, the needfor a substantial American force presence in theGulf transcends the issue of the regime ofSaddam Hussein."

- Rebuilding Americas Defenses, Page 14


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U.S. Base in Qatar


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Camp Bondsteel, Kosovo


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Bagram AFB Afghanistan


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Manas Airbase Kyrgyzstan


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Kharshi Airbase Uzbekistan


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Africa: Americas New Oil Interest?

In his May 2001 National Energy Report, USVice President Dick Cheney said:

West Africa is expected to be one of the fastestgrowing sources of oil and gas for the Americanmarket. African oil tends to be of high quality andlow in sulphur, making it suitable for stringent

refined product requirements, and giving it agrowing market share for refining centers on theEast Coast of the United States.


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Oil Interest in the Gulf of Guinea

Equatorial Guinea, So Tom andPrincipe, Gabon, and Cameroon, arescheduled to emerge alongside ofNigeria as oil exporters within the nextdecade.


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New Interests Means New BasesIn the past three years, the U.S. European Command(EUCOM) has drawn considerable U.S. attention tothe Gulf of Guinea, identifying major gaps in the

regions security forces and emphasizing thevulnerability of U.S. interests to terror, criminality,

and instability.

In 2007, General Jones, the head of EUCOM, told a

SenateF

oreign Relations Committee that because 25percent of America's oil imports would be comingfrom Africa within the next few years "securitycooperation in Africa is more important now thanever."


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Planting the Lily PadsPentagon officials have secured agreements witheight to 10 African nations to allow the U.S. militaryto utilize air fields and other suitable sites to establish

"cooperative security locations," from which it canlaunch military operations.EUCOM is also planning the construction of a U.S.naval base in So Tom and Principe, which it hasintimated could rival the U.S. naval base at Diego

Garcia in theIndian Ocean.America is also quietly increasing its military presence

in Nigeria.


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Creation of New Military Command

February 7, 2007: The Pentagonannounced that the U.S. was creating

a new unified military command for itsoperations in Africa. Africom, will coverall parts of the continent except Egypt,which will continue to fall underCentral Command. Pentagon officialssay the move signals Africa's growing

importance to U.S. interestsThe new command became operationalin September 2008 with GeneralWilliam Ward in Command.

General William Wardvisiting Senegal


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The Oil Factor in American

Foreign Policy

why the middle east is a vital interest to the us

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