WIGOS Space-Component Vision: anticipated evolution Picture of 2040

--Development of a Vision of WIGOS Space-based Component in 2040

WMO: Dr Zhang

Wenjian Zhang

Director, Observing and Information Systems Department & WMO Space Programme

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

WIGOS-Space Vision 2040 Workshop, 2015, Geneva, WMO

+ National societal needs

WIGOS

WMO STRATEGIC PLAN – DRIVEN BY Global Societal Needs

Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM

Global Societal Needs !

• The warmer planet, leading to more frequent extreme Weather & Climate events

• Global population above 9 billion in 2050, with growing settlements in costal regions & megacities (50%72%)

• 780 million have no access to clean water

• 7 million premature death due to air pollution

• Increase of vunerability & greater loses !!!

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The global total economic losses by decade and by hazard type in USD billions adjusted to 2011

Internal Factors Influencing WMO Priorities

• (a) Understanding and integrating the needs of various user communities;

• (b) Availability of modern meteorological infrastructure and availability of well trained personnel;

• (c) Capability to maintain high standards of observations, data and metadata;

• (d) Participation in, and access to, research that leads to improved monitoring, prediction and understanding of the erth system;

• (e) Capability to prepare and deliver high quality early warnings and forecasts of weather-, climate- and water-related hazards,

• (f) Effective mobilization of resources, efficiency in their use and effective modern governance and decision-making.

4 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

External Factors Influencing WMO Priorities

• High-impact weather, marine weather, climate and hydrological extremes continue to have significant consequences around the globe and have caught the attention of world leaders.

• Concerns are mounting about the increasing socio-economic vulnerabilities, risks and severity of these events due to climate variability and change, coupled with increased urbanization and especially in densely populated coastal areas, and the importance of shipping for commerce.

• The rapidly increasing scale of environmental change being observed in the Polar Regions is already having significant implications on weather and climate patterns worldwide.

5 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM

The plenat will be warmer, leading to more frequent extreme events in 2040

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NMHSs will morph from the weather business into an environmental intelligence enterprise

WMO OMM

Purpose of the workshop-dialogue

1. Anticipated meteorology services needs in 2040

2. Anticipated available technology meeting needs in 2040

7 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space Vision 2040. WMO

WMO OMM

An example: Costal Meteorological Services !

Steady sea level rise +

Intensified hurricanes due to global warming

8 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM

The sea level will continue rising, leading the coastal regions to a risky area

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WMO OMM

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CGMS-43, Boulder, CO, May 2015 11

Storm Surge wave heights higher than 20 feet !

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Great losses: 1000 death toll and >100 Billion $

13 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM

Global risk along the costal Megacities Nations need to protect Lives and Property !!!!

14 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

How the space observations can help the Hurricane intensity forecasting ?

• Since SSTs can change rapidly due

to mixing processes and correspond to only about the top 10 metres, SST by itself does not provide sufficient information about the heat content stored in the upper ocean to accurately forecast tropical cyclone intensity.

• We get far more reliable data from altimeters, since sea surface height anomalies are strongly correlated with the internal thermal structure of the ocean.

15 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM

CONCLUSION: SUSTAIN THE ALTIMETRY & OCEAN MISSION !

16 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

How space observations support TC monitoring

• New Gen GeoSats will greatly enhance our monitoring capabilities !

• Can we anticipate by 2040 GEO or fleet LEO Microwave instruments to hourly monitoring the internal structure of TC intensity, in addition to VIS/IR Imagers? !

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WMO OMM

Need dialogues between Observation Users and Providers

• WMO space-based observing system largely relies on operational satellite programmes with a life cycle of several decades, due to long lead technical activities and high-level decision processes.

• Most of the satellite programmes of the 2020’s are thus fully defined by now. This is why our Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) considered it was time to look at 2040 as the new horizon to shape a new vision of the space-based observing system, embracing the potential of future space technologies.

18 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

Space-Component of WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS)

WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM The whole is more than the sum of the parts—Aristotle

WIGOS-Space needs to meet weather, climate, water and related

environmental services requirements

WMO: Dr Zhang

WMO OMM

Need dialogues between Observation Users and Providers

• I would like to thank the CBS Expert Team on Satellite Systems (ET-SAT), its Chairman Dr Jack Kaye, all its members and their respective space agencies, for proposing and initiating this workshop.

• In the first session this morning, distinguished speakers will raise our attention on one hand to the future societal needs, and on the other hand to the changes affecting space technology. This will be important to set the scene for the dialogue to be held during the remaining two-and-a-half days.

20 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM

Need dialogues between Observation Users and Providers

• Difficulty to anticipate the user needs & Technical progress 25 years ahead

• Space agencies need to better understand the user needs – Service driven approach

• Users need to aware of potential future capabilities- Technological driven

• Direct interaction will stimulate a prospective view • Now let’s have a Dialogue at the «WIGOS Space

Vision 2040 workshop» 21 Dr Wenjian ZHANG, WIGOS Space VISION 2040. GENEVA, WMO

WMO OMM Many thanks to all Participants

• I would like to express my deep thanks to all the speakers, to the organizers and to you all for your participation in this dialogue.

• The outcome of this workshop will contribute to: – The Consultative Meeting on High-level Policy on

Satellite Matters next January. – The CBS Session around November of 2016 – WMO EC session 2017

• I trust that your work will be appreciated as a useful guidance for WMO.

•

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Wishing a great success of the

workshop !

Thank you for your attention!

wzhang@wmo.int

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