will aseans dream be the dream of us (graph)
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
1/26
Will the Dream of ASEAN be
Indonesians Dream?
(or, Will It be Indonesians Nightmare?)
Akhmad Akbar Susamto
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
2/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
3/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
The roots of the ASEAN groupingcan be traced back at least to theSoutheast Asia Treaty
Organization (SEATO).
The SEATO was signed in 1949,with a purpose to fightcommunism in Southeast Asia.
Members of the SEATO: UnitedStates, United Kingdom, France,Pakistan, Philippines andThailand.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
4/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
The motivation for increasingeconomic co-operation in the1990s was the threat of
competition from China.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
5/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
The AEC helps to establish a level
playing field across the region, creating
a culture of fair business competition
for among the ASEAN member states
and ultimately enhancing the regionseconomic performance.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
6/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
Recalling that the motivationbehind ASEAN integration isthe threat from China, the
future of ASEAN communitywill depend on how individualmember states China is able tobuild partnership with China.
The need for ASEAN
cooperation would become lessattractive once .
However, he said the spirit to establish
a single economy is slowly diminishing
as many Asean countries start to revive
their protectionist instincts.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
7/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
Besides, as each memberexperiences good growth, thewill and desire to unite within
the region will, paradoxically,dwindle.
However, he said the spirit to establish
a single economy is slowly diminishing
as many Asean countries start to revivetheir protectionist instincts.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
8/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
The need for ASEANcooperation would become lessattractive once . Besides, as each
member experiences goodgrowth, the will and desire tounite within the region will,paradoxically, dwindle.
However, he said the spirit to establisha single economy is slowly diminishing
as many Asean countries start to revive
their protectionist instincts.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
9/26
-------- The Evolution of ASEAN Community --------
t will be a larger ASEAN market forall the Asean countries
It requires the hard decision of whichcountry should lead in whichindustry.
Asean is not big enough to haveseveral different car industries. It has
got to focus on one or two countries. Ifeach Asean country wants to have acar industry, then we will be killingourselves in terms of economiccompetition
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
10/26
---- Future ASEAN: Opportunities for Indonesia ----
The evolution of ASEAN towards aborderless community offers newopportunities for Indonesia.
It expands the target market ofIndonesian goods and services.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
11/26
---- Future ASEAN: Opportunities for Indonesia ----
From consumers perspective, thecreation of a single ASEAN market
is also beneficial as it will create
incentives for businesses to further
develop creative and innovative
products and services as they
willhave to compete with a numberof new players in the market..
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
12/26
------ Future ASEAN: Challenges for Indonesia ------
The evolution of ASEAN towards aborderless community also bringsgreater challenges for Indonesiathat need to be tackled.
.exposing local business tounfettered competition which they
fear they are ill-prepared to deal
with
Possible marginalization of unskilled
workers
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
13/26
------ Future ASEAN: Challenges for Indonesia ------
Risk of over-exuberant inflows of
capital
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
14/26
-----------Is Indonesia Ready for the Future?-----------
The need for Indonesian government toassist in preparing their local industries,
particularly small and medium
enterprises (SMEs), to tap into the
benefits of the AEC as well as that of asingle production base
.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
15/26
-------- Some Closing Remarks --------
The impact of AEC will only becomeapparent after 2015 and depends onfactors that are not always easy toforesee.
It is true that we need to have a longvision.
It is also true that AEC should be seenas the end of the beginning rather
than the ultimate integration itself.
But, there is no need to rush!
Lets have a short break, take a very
deep breath and see how the AECworks.
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
16/26
Rank Country Value
1 United States 0.8242 Japan 0.694
3 Norway 0.643
4 Finland 0.621
5 Sweden 0.619
6 Germany 0.616
7 Korea, Republic 0.576
8 Swi tzerl and 0.539
9 Denmark 0.51610 Singapore 0.510
11 Austral ia 0.506
12 Canada 0.461
13 Austria 0.443
14 New Zea land 0.408
15 Netherl and 0.405
16 France 0.373
17 United Kingdom 0.36418 Hong Kong 0.338
19 Belgium 0.331
20 Czech Republic 0.288
21 Spain 0.204
22 Italy 0.134
23 Poland 0.095
24 Portugal -0.008
25 Chile -0.037 60.42
61.75
66.49
68.27
71.48
75.38
77.34
77.6478.83
79.26
80.74
80.86
82.48
83.31
85.38
85.5585.85
86.90
88.59
90.44
90.60
90.67
91.70
94100 (1) UNITED STATES
(2) JAPAN
(3) NORWAY
(4) FINLAND
(5) SWEDEN
(6) GERMANY
(7) KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
(8) SWITZERLAND
(9) DENMARK(10) SINGAPORE
(11) AUSTRALIA
(12) CANADA
(13) AUSTRIA
(14) NEW ZEALAND
(15) NETHERLAND
(16) FRANCE
(17) UNITED KINGDOM(18) HONG KONG
(19) BELGIUM
(20) CZECH REPUBLIC
(21) SPAIN
(22) ITALY
(23) POLAND
(24) PORTUGAL
(25) CHILE
CATCH UP INDEX 2014 (50 COUNTRIES)
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
17/26
26 Saudi Arabia -0.041
27 Russian Federation -0.107
28 Romania -0.129
29 Malaysia -0.136
30 Kazakhstan -0.149
31 Ukraine -0.209
32 Thailand -0.210
33 Turkey -0.212
34 China -0.223
35 Argentina -0.31136 Egypt -0.338
37 Brazil -0.372
38 Iran -0.412
39 Mexico -0.436
40 Algeria -0.472
41 Viet Nam -0.475
42 South Africa -0.487
43 Venezuela -0.510
44 Indonesia -0.527
45 Philippines -0.548
46 Peru -0.568
47 Colombia -0.610
48 India -0.656
49 Nigeria -1.049
50 Kenya -1.350 0
13.85
31.93
34.07
36.00
36.91
37.89
38.65
39.73
40.24
40.40
42.07
43.17
45.01
46.5647.79
51.86
52.34
52.43
52.47
55.24
55.85
56.19
57.19
60.20
0 20 40 60 80 100
(26) SAUDI ARABIA
(27) RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(28) ROMANIA
(29) MALAYSIA
(30) KAZAKHSTAN
(31) UKRAINE
(32) THAILAND
(33) TURKEY
(34) CHINA
(35) ARGENTINA(36) EGYPT
(37) BRAZIL
(38) IRAN
(39) MEXICO
(40) ALGERIA
(41) VIET NAM
(42) SOUTH AFRICA
(43) VENEZUELA
(44) INDONESIA
(45) PHILIPPINES
(46) PERU
(47) COLOMBIA
(48) INDIA
(49) NIGERIA
(50) KENYA
Rank Country Value
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
18/26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (42) India (47) Indonesia(41)
Japan (1) Korea,Republic of
(14)
Malaysia(36)
Philippines(44)
Singapore(20)
Thailand(33)
Viet Nam(37)
Score
Country/Rank
1. Social Welfare
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
19/26
2. Macroeconomics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (5) India (47) Indonesia(36)
Japan (4) Korea,Republic of
(16)
Malaysia(20)
Philippines(29)
Singapore(9)
Thailand(35)
Viet Nam(38)
Score
Country/Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
20/26
3. Infrastructure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (34) India (48) Indonesia(47)
Japan (22) Korea,Republic of
(11)
Malaysia(29)
Philippines(46)
Singapore(2)
Thailand(43)
Viet Nam(42)
Score
Country/ Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
21/26
4. Technological Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (24) India (41) Indonesia(45)
Japan (3) Korea,Republic of
(2)
Malaysia(34)
Philippines(50)
Singapore(12)
Thailand(39)
Viet Nam(48)
Score
Country/ Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
22/26
5.Innovation Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (33) India (38) Indonesia(46)
Japan (10) Korea,Republic of
(2)
Malaysia(25)
Philippines(48)
Singapore(7)
Thailand(11)
Viet Nam(49)
Score
Country/ Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
23/26
6. Institutional Capability
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (7) India (24) Indonesia(26)
Japan (31) Korea,Republic of
(34)
Malaysia(36)
Philippines(37)
Singapore(40)
Thailand(42)
Viet Nam(15)
Score
Country/ Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
24/26
7. Business Sector Performance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (8) India (37) Indonesia(29)
Japan (3) Korea,Republic of
(7)
Malaysia(25)
Philippines(39)
Singapore(6)
Thailand(12)
Viet Nam(33)
Score
Country/ Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
25/26
8. Independency
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (19) India (34) Indonesia(18)
Japan (30) Korea,Republic of
(15)
Malaysia(38)
Philippines(24)
Singapore(44)
Thailand(25)
Viet Nam(49)
Score
Country/ Rank
-
8/11/2019 Will ASEANs Dream Be the Dream of Us (Graph)
26/26
9. Sustainability
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China (30) India (39) Indonesia(43)
Japan (21) Korea,Republic of
(35)
Malaysia(44)
Philippines(16)
Singapore(19)
Thailand(37)
Viet Nam(45)
Score
Country/ Rank