will china and india grow together or grow apart? by dean/will china... · be captured in three...

7/25/12 Will China and India grow together or grow apart? - Rediff.com

1/7rediff.com/news/slide-show/…/20110113.htm?print=true

Print this article

Will China and India grow together or grow apart?Last updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

Text of remarks by Professor KishoreMahbubani, Dean and Professor in thePractice of Public Policy of the Lee KuanYew School of Public Policy at theNational University of Singapore, at theIndia Habitat Centre, New Delhi onJanuary 8

I believe that I have an eminently simple andreasonable argument to put across that canbe captured in three simple points. My firstpoint is that one does not have to be ageopolitical genius to predict that the maingeopolitical fault line in the next few decadeswill be the West and China.

When China emerges with the world's largesteconomy by 2027, or earlier, it will be the firsttime in over 200 years that at a nonWesternpower will be the strongest power in the world.It is possible that the West will sit backpassively and not try to thwart China's rise.However, it would be wiser for China to makeits geopolitical plans on the basis that theWest will try, directly or indirectly, to thwartChina's rise.

My second point is that when the West triesto thwart the rise of China, it would prefer todo it indirectly rather than directly. The idealscenario is the one that the West usedsuccessfully against the Soviet Union. Therethe West did not confront the Soviet Uniondirectly. Instead, it unleashed radical Islamicforces in Afghanistan to unhinge the SovietUnion.

That strategy succeeded. Vis vis China, the best instrument that the West could find to thwart the rise of Chinawould be the second fastest rising Asian power, namely India. The emergence of a bitter and persistentgeopolitical contest between China and India would be an ideal geopolitical outcome for the West.

My third, and I hope most obvious point, is that it does not serve India's interests to be used an as instrument bythe West to thwart China's rise. In simple geopolitical logic, the best position for India to take is to maintain aneutral and carefully staked out middle position in the coming struggle between the West and China

Click on NEXT to read further...

How the West will try to seduce IndiaLast updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

The West will try to seduce India by saying that this is not a power struggle but a struggle over virtue andvalues: democracy versus communist authoritarian systems.



However, the history of the West has shownthat geopolitical interests always trumpvalues. This is why the West supported theSaudiPakistan axis over India in the ColdWar.

Geopolitical seduction is far more dangerousthan sexual seduction because theconsequences are weightier.

The best way for me to elaborate these threepoints is to answer three critical questions:Firstly, will the West try to thwart China?Secondly, will the West look for alternativeinstruments to use against China? Thirdly, isit in India's interests to join the West inthwarting the rise of China?

In trying to answer these questions, please letme admit that the answers will be complex,

not simple. We will have to get out of simple backandwhite perspectives in trying to understand the comingstruggle between the West and China.

So far, China has managed its geopolitical rise brilliantlyLast updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

There is, for example, no simple blackandwhite answer to the question whether theWest will try to thwart the rise of China.Certainly, the West will not launch a simpleSovietstyle containment policy. One reasonwhy it cannot do so is that, so far, China hasmanaged its geopolitical rise brilliantly.

Please see pages 219234 from my book TheNew Asian Hemisphere. The complex strategyincluded the following elements: heeding DengXiaoping's advice to take a low profile

(Note: the following characters describeDeng's advice: (1) lengjing guancha: observeand analyse [developments] calmly; (2)

chenzhuo yingfu: deal [with changes] patiently and confidently; (3) wenzhu zhenjiao: secure [our own] position;(4) taoguang yanghui: conceal [our] capabilities and avoid the limelight; (5) shanyu shouzhuo: be good at keepinga low profile; (6) juebu dangtou: never become a leader; (7) yousuo zuowei: strive to make achievements).

China is using the developing interdependence between the US and China, where the US economy now heavilydepends on Chinese purchases of US Treasury Bills and taking full advantage of America's absolutely stupidpolicies vis vis the Islamic world.

Hence, ironically, while the West used the Islamic world to unhinge the Soviet Union, China is now emerging asthe prime beneficiary of stupid Western policies in the Islamic world. 9/11 and the Western reaction to it werehuge geopolitical gifts to China.

In the geopolitical contest between China and the West, the score is probably 8 for China and 2 for the West. Butit would be foolish for China to be complacent.



China is distrustful of the WestLast updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

Indeed, the Chinese believe that they havemany reasons to feel distrustful of the West.

This suspicion is well captured in the followingpoem:

An Awakening MessageWhen we were the Sick Man of Asia, Wewere called The Yellow Peril.When we are billed to be the nextSuperpower, we are called The Threat.When we closed our doors, you smuggledopium to open markets.When we embrace Free Trade, You blame usfor taking away your jobs.When we were falling apart, you marched inyour troops and wanted your fair share.When we tried to put the broken pieces backtogether again, Free Tibet you screamed, itwas an Invasion!When we tried Communism, you hated us forbeing Communist.When we embrace Capitalism, you hate us for

being Capitalist.When we have a billion people, you said we were destroying the planet.When we tried limiting our numbers, you said we abused human rights.When we were poor, you thought we were dogs.When we loan you cash, you blame us for your national debts.When we build our industries, you call us polluters.When we sell you goods, you blame us for global warming.When we buy oil, you call it exploitation and genocide.But when you go to war for oil, you call it liberation.When we were lost in chaos and rampage, you demanded rules of law.When we uphold law and order against violence, you call it violating human rights.When we were silent, you said you wanted us to have free speech.When we are silent no more, you say we are brainwashedxenophobics.Why do you hate us so much, we asked.No, you answered, we don't hate you.We don't hate you either,But, do you understand us?Of course we do, you said,We have AFP, CNN and BBC's...What do you really want from us?Think hard first, then answer...Because you only get so many chances.Enough is Enough, Enough Hypocrisy for This One World.We want One World, One Dream, and Peace on Earth.This Big Blue Earth is Big enough for all of Us.

'The West is capable of geopolitically brilliant moves'Last updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

The West did not dominate the world through stupidity. It is capable of geopolitically brilliant moves. Therefore,in answer to my second question, the West will certainly look for alternative instruments to use against China.



Let me suggest two it will try. The first is tofocus on the obvious Achilles' heel of China:its political system. The most powerfulideological instrument to use in any struggleis the instrument of legitimacy.

In one way or another, the West will try todelegitimise the Chinese political system,especially by highlighting its lack ofdemocracy. In so doing, the West willdeliberately ignore the fact that Chinesesociety has never been as open as it is today.

Hence, when the Nobel Peace Prize isawarded to a dissident like Liu Xiaobaoinstead of one of the greatest leaders of the20th Century, Deng Xiaoping, it is natural forthe Chinese government to get angry becausethey see it, with some reason, as a Westernplan to delegitimise the political system ofChina.

It is not in India's interest to join the West against ChinaLast updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

Please let me emphasise one point: I presume that it is clear that it is not in India's interest to join the West intrying to delegitimise the Chinese political system, tempting as it may be.

The second instrument that the West can try to use against China is divideandrule. Indeed, this is how theWest conquered the world. One reason why I published my first book, Can Asians Think? was to answer anobvious question: how did 100,000 Englishmen rule so effectively over 300 million Indians. One obvious reason:divideandrule.

This time around the West cannot use radical Islam to unhinge China. However, it will look all around Asia forinstruments to use to either balance or destabilise China: from Japan to South Korea; from Taiwan to Tibet; fromASEAN to India. Each of these instruments provides geopolitical opportunities for the West. However, the idealgeopolitical instrument will be India.

Why India? The simplest answer is that from year 1 to year 1820, the two largest economies were China andIndia. However, with the passing of the era of Western domination of world history, there will be an almost naturalreturn of China and India to the number one and number two slots in Global GNP ranking.

From the point of view of Western geopolitical interests, with China and India returning as the number one andnumber two nonWestern powers in the world, what better geopolitical scenario could there be for the West thanfor the number one and number two to struggle against each other as they are rising?

And if they both succeed in slowing down the rise of each other, won't the prime beneficiary of this be the West?



For India, it is better to be courted by both sidesLast updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

The third and final question is this: is it in India's interest to join the West in thwarting the rise of China? Ipresume that the answer is no. There is a simple rule of geopolitics. In any threeway contest of power, the bestposition to occupy is the middleposition.

To put it simply, it is better to be courted by both sides rather than to be taken for granted as an instrument byone side and as an adversary by the other side.

However, to be honest, it may be difficult for India to maintain this middle position. The West is nowgeographically far away. There are no immediate pressing issues dividing India and the West (except perhapsclimate change and the American position on Pakistan).

By contrast, China is near and getting nearer. Several bilateral issues are clouding ChinaIndia relations:Pakistan, Arunachal Pradesh, the stapling of visas for Kashmir related passports. It is easy to get aggravated ona daily basis.

In geopolitics, it is a mistake to allow emotions to determine when to get aggravated. Getting aggravated shouldbe a rational choice, not an emotional choice.



Hence, when China had fishing boat incidentswith Japan and South Korea, it chose to getaggravated with Japan but not with SouthKorea. Similarly, when both Lee Teng Hui andChen Shui Bian were clearly pursuing proindependence strategies for Taiwan, China didget angry but it also controlled its anger andcontinued to court both the Taiwanese publicand Taiwanese investors.

Thirty years ago, most would have predictedthat the ChinaTaiwan problem was far moredifficult to solve than the IndiaPakistanproblem. Today, the reverse is probably true.The lesson from all this is that it is a mistaketo allow emotions to influence geopoliticaldecisions. Reason must always trumpemotion.

If India does it right, there can be enormous geopolitical opportunitiesLast updated on: January 13, 2011 08:23 IST

This is why the best strategy for India to emulate intrying to rise and emerge peacefully is to follow DengXiaoping's sevenpoint advice for China.

If India were to practice this advice, enormousgeopolitical opportunities would open for India. Irealise that this is difficult advice for a country with aboisterous free media, which works on 24hour newscycles and requires instant sound bites.

Yet, at the same time, most of the Indian journalists Ihave met have also tended to be very thoughtful andconscious of India's longterm interests. Most Indianjournalists, I believe, would also agree that India isbetter off pursuing an independent policy rather thanone that serves the interests of others.

There is one fundamental common interest that Chinaand India share. Both have suffered foreign invasionsand foreign humiliation over the past two hundredyears. Both have also understood well the price theypaid for being weak. Both have also suffered the mostin the period of Western domination of world history.

It would therefore be hugely ironic that at the mostpropitious moment in both their histories, they allowthe geopolitical interests of the West to trump thecommon interests they have in seizing the bestmoment to reestablish themselves as the two mostpowerful countries in the world. And, if both can followtheir common interests rather than Western interests,both can grow together, not grow apart.

will china and india grow together or grow apart? by dean/will china... · be captured in three...

Documents