will electric cars rule the future?

Will electric cars rule the future?

Nicolas Meilhan

Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan

September 2016

2

3 major challenges we have to take into consideration to develop a

sustainable car : climatic changes, end of fossil fuels and air

pollution

Performance

• Efficiency

• Acceleration

• Top speed

• CO2 emissions

• Air pollution

Climatic changes

•CO2 emission at highest level

in the last 800,000 years

•More than 2° expected by 2100

with drastic consequences if

nothing is done

End of fossil resources

•97% of road transportation

use fossil fuels

•Oil, which is the main driver

of our economy, might have

disappeared by the end of

the century

Air pollution

•With the rural exodus and

development of mega cities,

air pollution has reached

unprecedented levels

•Serious health diseases to

multiply drastically

Challe

nges

Constr

ain

s

Sustainable car KSF = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Costs

• Total cost of ownership

• Retail

• Recharging

• Maintenance

Autonomy

• Distance without charging

• Time to recharge

• Storage weight

Infrastructure

• Investment required to update existing infrastructure and/or build a new one

• Standards across all countries

Perform

a

n

c

e

Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

3

The reason why electric vehicles never met the gap until now is that fossil

fuels have the best energy density, both in mass and volume, than any other

energy vector

Source : Pierre-René BAUQUIS

Energy density of energy vectors used in transport

Fossil fuels have a mass density 100 times as high as batteries

1kg of fossil fuel contain as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries

4

If anthropogenic contribution to climate change is still being

debated, global warming is happening with up to 5°C increase by

2100 in the worst case scenarios with drastic consequences

800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration

Perform

a

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c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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Air pollution



•The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher than at any time in

measurable history

• It is predicted to reach from 550 to 900 ppm by 2100 – 85% to 200% increase compare to

highest concentration observed in the last 800,000 years

Projected temperature up to 2100

5

Knowing whether we’ll still have fossil fuel in 2100 is not key

– the critical issue is how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our

economy and our cars Perform

a

n

c

e

Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

e

s

o

u

r

c

e

s

Air pollution



Extr

actio

n in

bill

ion

s o

f o

il b

arr

els

pe

r ye

ar

Liquid fuels extraction - 1930 to 2050 -

« It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap» Jean-Marie Bourdaire

6

Air pollution is one of the key driver for city to adopt EV cars,

especially in China. Diesel emissions (particles & NOx) are

particularly unhealthy even though CO2 emissions are lower

Particles (PM) emissions in Paris

9th of juin 2004, 10h, atmo index « Mauvais 7 »

14th of June 2004, 10h, atmo index « Bon 3 »

Perform

a

n

c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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s

o

u

r

c

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Air pollution



PM10 = 20 µg/m3

PM10 = 80 µg/m3

72,000 people killed every year in Europe

because of NOx emissions from diesel cars

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, ICCT

NOx emissions for diesel vehicles - Standards vs. reality -

7

Plug-in hybrids offer the best trade-off between petroleum

consumption and Well-to-Wheel Emission

Fuel Consumption and Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future (2035 Cars)

Source: More Sustainable transportation: The Role of Energy Efficient Vehicle Technologies, Sloan Automotive Laboratory (MIT), April 2008

Perform

a

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c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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Air pollution



Plug-in hybrids (30 miles)

8

Country electricity mix can have a huge impact on CO2 emissions of

electric vehicles

Well to wheel emissions of a battery vehicle

•Most of electricity in the USA (40%),Germany (45%) and China (70%) is produced from coal

•Nuclear and renewable energies (including hydro) are the only alternatives to produce CO2 free electricity

Emissions intensity

gCO2/kWh g/km

Wind 5.5 0.9

Nuclear 15 2.4

Hydro 18 2.9

Nuclear 60 9.6

Natural Gas - CC 461 74

Natural Gas 653 104

Coal 1075 172

CO2 emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh)

% of CO2

free

electricity

Emission

intensity

(gCO2 / kWh)

Well to wheel

emissions of electric

vehicle* (g/km)

France 90% 75 20

Canada 59% 267 43

California 44% 470 75

US 31% 710 114

China 20% 950 160

Source: Rouler sans pétrole, Pierre Langlois, 2008

* Equivalent to an intermediary ICE car = 9l/100 km => 244g/km

Perform

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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c

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Air pollution



9

Plug-in hybrids are the only alternative technology able to compete

today at a global scale with the ICE on autonomy and infrastructure

investment required

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011

Autonomy Infrastructure

investment High Low

Distance Time to recharge Storage weight

Internal Combustion

Engine

600 km 5 min Already existing 45 kg

Plug-in hybrids

600 km (20 to 60

km electric)

Already existing 2-3 hours 50 to 90 kg

Electric vehicle

60 to 250 km

electric

To be developed 4-8 hours 90 to 250 kg

Fuel Cell Vehicle

600 km To be developed 5 min 90 to 100 kg

Performance

Perform

a

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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s

o

u

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c

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s

Air pollution



10

Plug-in hybrids will be competitive with the ICE without any state

subsidy for an oil price over 2,5 €/L

Total cost of ownership of an ICE compared with a Plug-In Hybrid

* Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis MIT, 2009

** 80% of French drivers average trip per day is less than 50 km every day

Payback period sensitivity to oil price and state subsidy

TCO of a C-segment car ICE Plug-in hybrids

(50 km electric autonomy)

Retail price (€) 14800 € (20000$) + 7400 € (+10000 $*)

Electric autonomy 0 km 50 km

Energy consumption 7 l/100km 1.4 l/100km ** & 15 kWh/100km

Annual energy consumption (14000 km) 980 l 196 l & 1,68 MWh

Annual TCO(1,75€/l & 100 €/MWh) 1715 € 343 € + 168 € = 511 €

Annual TCO(2 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 1960 € 392 € + 168 € = 560 €

Annual TCO(2,5 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 2450 € 490 € + 168 € = 658 €

Oil price 1,75 € 2 € 2.5 €

Incremental annual TCO of ICE 1204 € 1400 € 1882 €

Payback period without subsidy 6.1 years 5.3 years 3.9 years

Payback period with a €2,000 subsidy 4,5 years 3,9 years 2.9 years

Payback period with a €4,000 subsidy 2.8 years 2,4 year 1.8 years

Épuisement des énergies fossiles

Performance

Changements climatiques

Pollution atmosphérique

Autonomie Infrastructures Coûts

11

Plug-in hybrids represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a

global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Plug-In Hybrids Electric Vehicle Internal Combustion Engine

Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

MetalIndependence

Highway Range

ChargingInfrastructure

Availability

Energy Efficiency

Affordability

Oil Independence

MetalIndependence

Highway Range


Availability

Energy Efficiency

Affordability

Oil Independence

MetalIndependence

Highway Range


Availability

Energy Efficiency

Affordability

Oil Independence

MetalIndependence

Highway Range


Availability

Energy Efficiency

Affordability

Oil Independence

12

PHEVs do not need an expensive fast charging infrastructure deployment, can

reduce oil consumption by as much as 80% and uses four times as less supply-

constrained cobalt than BEVs

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Affordability Metal

Independence

Highway

Range

Charging

Infrastructure

Availability

Energy

efficiency*

Oil

Independence

ICE

Most cost

competitive

alternative

5

Platine in

catalytic

converters

4 More than

500 km 5

Infrastructur

e existing 5

18%

Gasoline

22% Diesel

3 100%

oil 1 23

BE

V High cost of

60kWh

battery

3

Lithium and

cobalt for 60

kWh battery

2 Up to 300

km 3

Fast charger

network &

local grid

upgrade

2 20% 3 100%

electric 5 18

PH

EV

20kWh

battery 4

Lithium and

cobalt for 20

kWh battery

3 More than

500 km 5

Local grid

upgrade 4 20% 3

80% electric

20% oil 4 23

FC

EV

High cost of

fuel cell

stack

2

Platinum in

the fuel cell

stack

2 More than

500 km 5

Network of

hydrogen

station

1 8% 1 100%

electric 5 16

* Well to wheel

13

Electrification of vehicles will take place progressively starting with Plug-in

hybrids whose electric autonomy increases when battery prices decrease -

up to the day when all vehicles will run electrically

• ICE will still be around for a while representing the majority of vehicle sales for another 15 years

• Hydrogen is very unlikely to be used in a car before 2025 - only an energy vector for gas or nuclear, no significant advantage over an PHEV and some investments required to set up a distribution infrastructure

• EV, which neither emits CO2 nor pollutants, still face too many challenges – cost, autonomy, infrastructure, norm standards – to have a chance to replace at a global scale the ICE before 2040.

• There is however a potential for EV and FC in local niche applications like company fleets, car sharing or bus/tramway

• Plug-in hybrids has both the ICE advantages – autonomy, infrastructure required, affordable cost - and the EV ones – Energy efficiency, Well to Wheel emissions without sharing their drawbacks

Annual light-duty sales by technology type Annual global EV and PHEV sales

Source: EIA 2011

14

The higher the gas price, the more electrified cars are sold! Best way to promote electrified vehicles is to increase gas prices – either artificially through a

carbon tax or by selling more cars to China!

Month-over-month changes in gas price and electric vehicles sales - January 2011 to May 2014, USA -

Source: Energy Policy Information Center

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Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant

Energy & Transportation Practices

(+33) 1 42 81 23 24

nicolas [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



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