will history not replay at ge14
DESCRIPTION
Beyond fraud in the electoral process, I invite the public to examine the greater flaws in the electoral system. Presented in a forum organised by Merdeka Centre.TRANSCRIPT
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Will history not replay at GE14?
Dr Wong Chin Huat Penang Institute
13th General Election of Malaysia: Post Election Forum "The Implication of the GE13 result and post-election scenario“
By Merdeka Centre May 22, 2013
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Imagine...
Vote % Quota (1/223)
No of Quotas
Full Quota
Fractional quota Total
BN 47.38% 0.45% 105.66 105 1 106 PKR 20.39% 0.45% 45.47 45 1 46 DAP 15.71% 0.45% 35.03 35 0 35 PAS 14.77% 0.45% 32.94 32 1 33 STAR 0.41% 0.45% 0.91 0 1 1 SWP 0.14% 0.45% 0.31 0 1 1 SAPP 0.09% 0.45% 0.20 0 0 0 Total 98.89% 217 5 222
Even if WM and EM are made two constituencies, with the same formula, PR will still win 110, while BN 109, STAR 2, SWP 1
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One person one vote?
47.38%
20.39%
15.71% 14.77%
59.91%
13.51%
17.12%
9.46%
126.00%
66.00%
109.00%
64.00%
BN PKR DAP PAS
Vote-Seat Disproportionality in the Parliamentary Elections 2013
Vote % Seat % Relative Value
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It’s a gamble!
39.36%
21.17%
17.67%
20.80% 21.43%
26.00%
26.79%
26.79%
54.00%
118.00%
152.00%
129.00%
BN PKR DAP PAS
Vote-Seat Disproportionality in the Selangor Legislative Elections 2013
Vote % Seat % Relative Value
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It’s a casino!
Graphic by Cheng Eng Aun
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Nothing New! Vote-seat Disproportionality in Malaysia, 1955-2008
Electio
ns
Largest
Opposition
Party
Votes to
match 1
Alliance/
BN vote
Second
Largest
Oppositio
n Party
Votes to
match 1
Alliance/
BN vote
Third
Largest
Oppositio
n Party
Votes to
match 1
Alliance/
BN vote
1955 PN Infinity PAS* 2.54 NAP* Infinity
1959 PAS* 2.34 SF 2.31 PPP* 2.25
1964 SF 12.25 PAS* 2.47 UDP 6.65
1969 PAS* 3.39 DAP 1.79 Gerakan* 1.81
1974 DAP 4.52 SNAP* 1.37 Pekemas 11.39
1978 DAP 2.72 PAS* 7.03 Pekemas Infinity
1982 DAP 4.75 PAS* 6.30 PSRM Infinity
1986 DAP 2.27 PAS* 40.41 PSRM Infinity
1990 DAP 2.10 S46* 4.48 PAS* 2.28
1995 DAP 3.33 S46* 4.22 PAS* 2.59
1999 PAS* 1.45 DAP 3.28 PKN 6.11
2004 PAS* 8.15 DAP 2.58 PKR 26.08
2008 PKR 1.67 PAS 1.70 DAP 1.37
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The Culprits
Three sources of disproportionality • The Nature of Electoral System - FPTP • Malapportionment
– Inter-state (Article 46, Federal Constitution) – Intra-state
• rural weightage • Limit of disparity: +-15%, +-50%, none
• Gerrymandering + Trade-off between Equal Apportionment and Natural Boundary
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Different leagues
Graphic by Cheng Eng Aun
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Malapportionment at 2013, WM
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Malapportionment at 2013, EM
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Nothing rural!
93,376
74,698
69,189
57,313
2013 2004
Malapportionment within state Baling Alor Star
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Nothing Malay!
72,845
39,688
34,290
20,006
2013 2004
Malapportionment within parliamentary constituency
Sri Serdang (2004: 57% Malays) Kinrara (2004: 61% Chinese)
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Gerrymandering – Turning Politics into Geography
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Gerrymandering Type 1: Crossing Municipal/District Boundaries
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Gerrymandering Type 2: Arbitrary Combination of Communities
N45
N45
N45
N45 N45
N45
N46
N46
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Gerrymandering Type 3: Partitioning Neighbourhoods
From left to right: the communities of Puchong Intan, Pusat Bandar Puchong and Bandar
Kinrara are segmented into N.30 Kinrara (east) and N.29 Seri Serdang (west).
PUCHONG INTAN
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FPTP is fraud-prone
• Under FPTP, for a seat with a real margin of 1,000 votes, to turn the outcome around may need only
– Deploying 1,001 phantoms
– Spoiling 1,001 votes cast for the winner
– Buying 501 votes
• Under Proportional Representation (entire nation as one constituency) with the formula of 1/(M+1) or 1/223, with 11,054,577 valid votes, the quota for a seat is 49,572! (see Slide 1)
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The Agenda for Electoral Reform
• If nothing changes in the rules of the game, GE14 may be even more frustrating than GE13.
• Constituency Redelienation – citizens’ participation can prevent malapportionment and gerrymandering from getting worse.
• In the long term, we still need electoral system change: – Majoritarian: Alternative Vote (Australia)
– Proportional: Mixed Member Proportional (Germany)
• No political change can be done without the Borneoan approval. Hence, decentralisation and electoral reform must be offered in a package.