will human interpreters be out of fashion soon? elka popova august 9, 2006
TRANSCRIPT
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Will Human Interpreters be Out of Fashion Soon?Elka PopovaAugust 9, 2006
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Agenda
• Speech-to-Speech Translation: Definitions and Market Segmentation
• Pioneers in Speech-to-Speech Translation• Evaluation of Alternative Solutions• How is the Market Going to Evolve• Who Needs Speech-to-Speech Translation• Are Translators and Interpreters Going Away
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S2S Translation Device and Software Markets: Segmentation and Definitions
Segmentation is Based on Target Markets and Applications
Portable Devices:
Definition: Handheld devices specifically designed for S2S translation Vendors: Voxtec (Phraselator) Ectaco (SpeechGuard series), IWT (VRT), SpeechGear (Endurance Tablet PC), Capinfo, NEC, other.Target market: Mobile individuals needing hands-free, eyes-free translation any time, anywhere, typically on the road and when the presence of a live interpreter is not feasible.Price range: $400-$6,000/ device
Software for Portable Devices:
Definition: Software that is downloadable or on a chip or flashdisk and is specifically designed for compact computing devices such as PDAs, tablet PCs or mobile phones. Vendors: SpeechGear (Interpreter), Sehda, BBN, otherTarget market: Mobile individuals needing hands-free, eyes-free translation any time, anywhere, typically on the road and when the presence of a live interpreter is not feasible.Price range: $100-$4,000
Software for Laptops, PCs and Servers:
Definition: Software that can be uploaded on a larger computing device for device-based or network-based S2S translation. Vendors : Sehda (S-Minds), SpeechGear (Interact), BBN, Spoken Translation, other Target market: Organizations or groups of people that have frequent interactions with non- native speakers at a certain location (hospital, police department, etc.) Price range: $995-$4,000
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Introduction to the Competition
S2S Translation MarketS2S Translation Market
Uni-Directional/Dictionary Uni-Directional/Dictionary – – fixed phrase:fixed phrase:
Bi-Directional Bi-Directional Phrase-BasedPhrase-Based
Bi-Directional Bi-Directional Free-FormFree-Form
• Ectaco/LingvosoftEctaco/Lingvosoft• VoxTecVoxTec• IWT IWT • PolyglotPolyglot
• SpeechGearSpeechGear• VoxTecVoxTec• BBN BBN • NECNEC• CapInfo CapInfo • SehdaSehda
• SRI InternationalSRI International• CMUCMU• USCUSC
• Spoken Translation (STI)Spoken Translation (STI)• SpeechGearSpeechGear
• SAKHR <–> SpeechGearSAKHR <–> SpeechGear• Word Magic <–> STIWord Magic <–> STI
DOMAINDOMAIN SPECIFICSPECIFIC
FREE - FORMFREE - FORM Component SuppliersComponent Suppliers
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What is Available Today
Ectaco’s Partner P800 talking dictionary series
Ectaco’s Travel SpeechGuard series
VoxTec’s PhraselatorSpoken Translation’s Converser
SpeechGear;’s Endurance Tablet PCSony’s Talkman
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Advantage Disadvantage
Software•Can access greater processing power of PCs and Servers
•Less expensive
• Restricted by hardware that is not optimized for S2S translation purposes
• Lack of Mobility
Hardware• Create device that is optimized
for S2S solution• Portability• Ruggedness
• Processing power limitation• More expensive
Software vs Device
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Advantage Disadvantage
Rules-Based•Greater accuracy • Need to start from scratch when
building new language pairs and/or domains
• Grammatically correct speech required – often have to speak specific phrases
Statistical • Easier to build additional language pairs and domains
• Not limited to specific group of phrases
• Allows for freer (not as grammatically correct) speech
• Not as accurate• Word spotting, not looking at
meaning
Phrase-Based vs. Statistical
A third way?• Many companies are looking at a synthesis of phrase-based and statistical translation technologies• Hoped that this will allow for the greater accuracy of phrase based technology, while some of the
flexibility of statistically based technology
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Advantage Disadvantage
Unidirectional •Higher level of accuracy • Perceived to be an inferior technology
Bidirectional • Greater level of interaction • Lower level of accuracy
Unidirectional vs. Bidirectional
Is Unidirectional Inferior?
• Currently S2S technology is generally being used in directional conversations ex. ‘Get out of the car’
• In most current S2S scenarios, unidirectional solutions can provide all the interpretation ability necessary.
• Bidirectional value add will come when looking at new markets with more symmetrical interaction requirement.
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2005 Impact:
•Growing ASR, TTS and
MT expertise
•U.S. government
subsidies for military use
•Early trials with public
safety organizations
•ASR-enabling of
consumer translation
devices
Market Evolution:
Portable Devices &
Software
2006 Impact:
•Early successes with
law enforcement, first
response and fire
fighters
•Consumer adoption
2007-2008
Impact:
•Further penetration
of each vertical with
more language pairs
•Early trials with
new verticals
•Declining
investment by
military
• Distribution
channels develop
2009-2010 Impact:
•Growing consumer
adoption
•Price declines and
market awareness
drive penetration of
commercial apps
•Business models
mature
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2005 Impact:
•Growing ASR, TTS and
MT expertise
•U.S. government
subsidies for military use
•Early trials with public
safety organizations
Market Evolution:
Stationary Systems &
Software
2006 Impact:
•Continued trials and early
penetration of healthcare
(new regulations in U.S.),
law enforcement and
social services
•Commercialization of new
products and new
language pairs
2007-2008
Impact:
•China drives
deployments in
travel/hospitality for
Olympic games
•Early adoption by
service providers
•Declining
investment by
military
•Developing
distribution channels
2009-2010 Impact:
•Early penetration of
education and other
verticals
•Price declines foster
volume purchases and
vice versa
•Business models
mature
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First Wave of ApplicationsSpecific User
GroupsWillingness to
PaySpecifics
Military:
Checkpoints, Basic Interrogation,
Instruction, Mobile Units
Very High
Core Language Need•Need to conduct simple asymmetric conversations easily with a high level of accuracy
Key Pain Point•Work in areas where there is a effective human interpretation resources are either very scarce or even non existent
Must Have•Device that will be ruggedized •Need portability •Very specialized domains, often in obscure languages
Disaster Relief:
Emergency Medical Care
High
Core Language Need•Need to conduct simple asymmetric conversations easily with a high level of accuracy
Key Pain Point•Work in areas where there is a effective human interpretation resources are either very scarce or even non existent
Must Have•Device that will be ruggedized•Need portability•Obscure language pairs
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First Wave of Applications (Cont.)
Specific User
Groups
Willingness
to PaySpecifics
Medical:
Radiology, Emergency Care
Medium
Core Language Need•Adhere to government language based on non-discrimination legislation and avoid lawsuits
Key Pain Point•Adherence creates additional language based expenses
Must have•Solution with specialization within a specific medical field; very high level of accuracy
Police/Paramedics/Fire:
Mobile UnitsMedium
Core Language Need•Need to provide mobile units with the ability to conduct simple directive conversations with a high level of accuracy
Key Pain Point•Using in person human interpreters causes time delay, cannot count on wireless networks for telephone based interpreters
Must Have•Device that will be ruggedized •Portability
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Second Wave of Applications
Specific User Groups Willingness to Pay Specifics
Business Traveler Low
Core Language Need•To conduct simple simple tasks while in a foreign speaking location
Key Pain Point•Using a human interpreter for these tasks is cost-prohibitive
Must Have•Easy to use•Perceived as reliable•Portable device
Self Language Learners Very Low
Core Language Need•Desire to practice/gain proficiency in another language
Key Pain Point•Do not want to pay for use of a human instructor
Must Have•Not really looking for a S2S Translator, really want an educational tool
•New verticals are being investigated
•Product development though is relatively preliminary when compared to the First Wave
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Human Interpreters – to Be or Not to Be?
• Technology is not mature yet (low accuracy, few available language pairs, etc.)
• Technology cannot rival human understanding and interpretation of cultural differences and nuances in meaning (context-dependent expressions, metaphors, irony)
• S2S translation solutions will fill a gap in interpretation, rather than replace existing services (dangerous conditions, on-the-spot, on-demand interpretation, inexpensive interpretation assistance for travelers, etc.)
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