Will North Korea give up the bomb?

Siegfried S. HeckerCenter for International Security and Cooperation 

fStanford University

PIIC ConferencePIIC ConferenceBeijing, ChinaNovember 1, 2012,

Nuclear Risk Reduction Project

• Fewer nuclear weaponsFewer nuclear weapons

• Fewer fingers on the nuclear trigger

• Keep them out of hands of terrorists

Nuclear Risk Reduction Project

• Fewer nuclear weaponsFewer nuclear weapons

• Fewer fingers on the nuclear trigger• North Korea• Iran• Iran

• Keep them out of hands of terrorists

North Korea and IranDifferent paths to the bomb

Iran – US Atoms for PeaceRevolution and retreatC t d l tCovert developmentDiscovered, negotiateCivilian “peaceful” cover

DPRK - SU Peaceful AtomIndigenous “peaceful” coverIndigenous peaceful coverBreakout & freezeBreakout, arm and negotiate

Six visits helped make a technical assessment

Jan. 2004 YongbyonNov. 2006 PyongyangAug. 2005 Pyongyang

August 9, 2007, Yongbyon Feb. 14, 2008, Yongbyon

The seventh visit brought a big surprise

Feb. 27, 2009, Pyongyang

Image credit: Digital Globe – ISISImage date: Nov. 4, 2010

November 2010 visit to Yongbyon presented us with a new reality

“We will convert our center to an LWR and pilot enrichment facility”We will convert our center to an LWR and pilot enrichment facility

Allison Puccioni, Jane’ HIS

We were shown the construction start for a 100 MWt experimental LWR

Digital Globe

We were shown the construction start for a 100 MWt experimental LWRand a modern 2000 centrifuge enrichment facility.

Sept 26 2010 Nov 04 2010 May 28 2011

Nov 04 2011 Jan 26 2011

Source: DigitalGlobe Source: DigitalGlobe Source: GeoEye

March 20 2012

June 24 2012 August 6 2012

Source: DigitalGlobe, 38 North Source: DigitalGlobe

June 24 2012

Source: DigitalGlobe

Source: GeoEye Source: GeoEyeSource: GeoEye

Newly constructed Newly constructed fence fence Newly constructed Newly constructed fence fence

TurbineTurbineGenerator HallGenerator Hall

TurbineTurbineGenerator HallGenerator Hall

New cement roadsNew cement roads

5MW

e R5M

We R

5MW

e R5M

We RHHHH

Reactor Containment Structure with domeReactor Containment Structure with dome

Reactor

Reactor

Reactor

Reactor

Heavy Heavy ManufacturingManufacturingHeavy Heavy ManufacturingManufacturing

Cooling Cooling water water P hP h

Cooling Cooling water water P hP h New area of activityNew area of activity

5MWe spent fuel 5MWe spent fuel pool storagepool storage

5MWe spent fuel 5MWe spent fuel pool storagepool storage

PumphousePumphousePumphousePumphouse Trench sealing Trench sealing for cooling for cooling

water pipeswater pipes

Trench sealing Trench sealing for cooling for cooling

water pipeswater pipes

New area of activityNew area of activity

KuryongKuryong River (Reactor Cooling River (Reactor Cooling Source)Source)KuryongKuryong River (Reactor Cooling River (Reactor Cooling Source)Source)

17 October 2012, Source: GeoEye

Purely illustrative ‐ this is not Yongbyon, but close to what we saw (Nov. 12, 2010). 

Piketon Ohio Centrifuge plant 1984 (Department of Energy)Piketon, Ohio Centrifuge plant, 1984 (Department of Energy)Several additional centrifuge lines were removed graphically to try to get this as close as possible to the centrifuge cascades we saw in Bldg. 4 at Yongbyon

Uranium Enrichment Centrifuge FacilityUranium Enrichment Centrifuge FacilityBuilding Exterior 1Building Exterior 1

33 D M d lD M d l33--D ModelD Model

Blue Roof Blue Roof Main Gate to Fuel Main Gate to Fuel Centrifuge HallCentrifuge Hall Fabrication FacilityFabrication Facility

Road to Building 4Road to Building 4Main EntranceMain Entrance ggMain Entrancewith granite stepsMain Entrancewith granite steps

Yongbyon centrifuge facility – Nov. 2010• 2 000 centrifuges in a divided 100 meter cascade hall• 2,000 centrifuges in a divided 100-meter cascade hall

• Centrifuges ~ 1.8 m high by 20 cm diameter

• Claimed to have steel rotors• Likely maraging steel, hence P-2 (G-2) centrifugesy g g , ( ) g

• Through-put claimed at 8,000 kg SWU/year• Capable of producing 2 tonnes LEU/yr (adequate for small LWR)Capable of producing 2 tonnes LEU/yr (adequate for small LWR)

• Claimed to be operating, producing LEU now• We cannot confirm but not inconsistent with what we saw• We cannot confirm, but not inconsistent with what we saw

• Modern control roomPyongyang must have another centrifuge facility in order to make

this facility operational in a little over one year. Such a facilitymay have produced HEU.

Bldg.5

Yongbyon Fuel Fabrication Plant

StructuresJune 2010

New Bldg.May 2011

Guest HouseSept 2010Guest HouseSept 2010

gCentrifuge Hall

completed June 2010Centrifuge Hall

completed June 2010June 2010

New FacilitySept 2010New FacilitySept 2010

N BldN Bld

RefurbishedSept 2010RefurbishedSept 2010

Bldg.1: UO2 Production

Building 3:Uranium Metal Production

Building 3:Uranium Metal Production

New BldgSept 2010New BldgSept 2010

New BuildingsNew BuildingsJune June –– Sept 2012Sept 2012

New BuildingsNew BuildingsJune June –– Sept 2012Sept 2012

17 OCT 2012; Source: GeoEye

Ju eJu e Sept 0Sept 0Ju eJu e Sept 0Sept 0

Better bombs? North Korea would require another test

Seoul watching space launch animationSeoul watching space launch animation

If it tests, what will it be and when?

Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, DPRKFLOODING EFFECTS

LA-UR-12-25674

NNSouth Portal AreaSouth Portal Area

NN

S AS A

East Portal AreaEast Portal Area

Support AreaSupport Area

3 OCT 2012 ©GeoEye©GeoEye

West Portal AreaWest Portal Area

Post-Flood

Sentry and the news mediaSohae launch complex

Associated Press

April 13, 2012 Space launch

Combination of nuclear weapons and missiles increases the threat

Images of North Korea’s new “Musudan” IRBM

Front-view of the MusudanIRBM missile and MAZ-547AIRBM missile and MAZ 547A TEL. Source: http://www.fresh.co.il

Sid Vi f th M d IRBM i ilSide View of the Musudan IRBM missile and MAZ-547A TEL as featured in the 10 Oct 2010 military parade in Pyongyang. Source: AP/Wide WorldSource: AP/Wide World

What does North Korea have?• Nuclear weaponsNuclear weapons

• Plutonium: 24 to 42 kg (~4 to 8 bomb’s worth)• No plutonium in the pipeline

M t lik l i l t fid t t t i il• Most likely simple, not confident to mount on missiles• 2006 test - partial success; 2009 - likely successful

• Uranium enrichment• Showed me a small industrial scale enrichment facility• Likely to have HEU not sure of extent of programLikely to have HEU, not sure of extent of program

• Missile program Four long range missile tests two total• Four long-range missile tests – two totalfailures, two partially successful. Most recent – 4/13/12

• Musudan road-mobile missile – Oct. 2010 parade

We know little about progress since Nov. 2010.They may have both plutonium and HEU.

So, what to do now?

For now contain the threat – 3 no’s

• No more bombs (no more Pu and HEU)

• No better bombs (no testing also constrain missile launches)No better bombs (no testing, also constrain missile launches)

• No export

We must be prepared to give a yes in return

Policies are complicated by leadership transition in North,domestic politics in South and the U.S.

Three possible options

• Do nothing, wait for Kim regime collapse

• Dual track sanctions with diplomacy• Dual track, sanctions with diplomacy • Typically conditioned on denuclearization first

• Create conditions favorable to nuclear disarmament• Don’t’ let it get worse – three No’s• Will require bold and close China – US cooperationWill i t i d it t lti l• Will require sustained commitment – multiple years

Why countries build and keep nuclear weapons

N ti l it• National security

• International statement, prestige

• Domestic statement and politics

Scott D. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security 21 (3) (Winter 1996/1997).

Switzerland

: Ratified NPT: Ratified NPT as ROC: Ratified NPT, Withdrew in 2003

Start and End of Nuclear Weapons Activity and NPT Ratification

Sweden

Yugoslavia (1) + (2)

Brazil

(West) Germany

Italy

Australia (1) + (2)

North Korea

Egypt

South Korea

Libya

South Africa

Taiwan (1) + (2)

R i

Iran (1) + (2)

Algeria

Iraq

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Syria

Romania

Also included Argentina and Japan for short timesS. D. SaganModified S. Hecker

South Korea chose electricity over bombs ~ 1980• 40 % electricity from nuclear power• One of the world’s fastest growing economies• One of the world s fastest growing economies• An industrial powerhouse• Poised to become major nuclear exporter

Seoul, ROK

Under new management

Time is not on their side

Over 1 million cell phones now