willis re-reinsurance market report

Cover Title 26/29 45 Light BlackCover Subtitle 12/15 — 65 Medium Black

Reinsurance market reportResults for full-year 2019

April 2020

Reinsurance Market Report – Full Year 2019

April 2020

Contents Key findings ............................................................................................................................................. 1

At a glance .............................................................................................................................................. 2

Capital.................................................................................................................................................. 2

Underlying RoE for the SUBSET ......................................................................................................... 3

Combined ratio for the SUBSET ......................................................................................................... 4

Expenses for the SUBSET .................................................................................................................. 5

Investment yield for the SUBSET ........................................................................................................ 5

Capital ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

Total reinsurance dedicated capital ..................................................................................................... 6

INDEX capital ...................................................................................................................................... 7

Return of capital .................................................................................................................................. 9

Return on equity .................................................................................................................................... 11

Underwriting performance ..................................................................................................................... 13

Premium volumes .............................................................................................................................. 13

Combined ratios ................................................................................................................................ 14

Prior year loss development .............................................................................................................. 17

Catastrophe losses ............................................................................................................................ 20

Expense ratios ................................................................................................................................... 22

Investment performance ....................................................................................................................... 23

Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................................................ 25

Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 25

Appendix 2 ............................................................................................................................................ 26


April 2020 1

Key findings Welcome to the 11th semi-annual publication of Willis Re’s Reinsurance market report which tracks

the capital and profitability of the global reinsurance industry.

Global reinsurance dedicated capital totalled USD 605B as of the end of 2019. This is a robust 15%

increase from a re-stated USD 526B at year-end 2018(1). As seen at the half-year stage, strong

investment markets were the main driver of the industry’s capital growth. Alternative capital remained

fairly stable, contracting only 3%.

Over the past five years, and not counting the impact of our 2018 restatement, we calculate that the

industry’s capital base has grown at an average annual pace of 4%.

Year-to-date 2020 much of this expansion will have unwound, due to the steep sell-off in equity and

corporate bond markets. During March and April 2020 there have so far been significant swings in

the investment markets, resulting in impacts to the global reinsurance capital base ranging from -5%

to as much as -20%.

Focusing on the INDEX(2) companies, which contribute the largest component of the industry’s capital:

■ INDEX companies’ capital grew 19% to USD 496B (FY 2018 re-stated: USD 416B), which

was entirely attributable to unrealised investment appreciation plus investment gains

recognised within net earnings.

■ The appreciation of National Indemnity’s large equity investment portfolio accounted for fully

60% of this growth. Excluding that, INDEX growth was 8%.

Drilling further into profitability, for the SUBSET(2) of companies within the INDEX that provide the

relevant disclosure:

■ The reported combined ratio for the SUBSET increased in 2019, from 99.2% to 100.6%.

■ The support to combined ratios and earnings from reserve releases continues to reduce. In

2019, the benefit to the SUBSET combined ratio reduced from 4.6% to 2.3%.

■ On an underlying basis (normalising nat cats and stripping out reserve releases), the

underlying combined ratio was 103.1%. This metric has been gently increasing every year

going back to 2013, including a small deterioration versus 102.3% in 2018.

■ Given low and often negative interest rates, reinsurers need to be earning a combined ratio

well below 100% to achieve an adequate RoE. Price increases began to accelerate in a

number of market segments in 2019, but a 103% starting point shows the large gap the

industry needs to close in order to restore profitability.

■ On the other hand, investment yields in 2019 were substantially augmented by investment

gains. The running investment yield (ie bond coupons, equity dividends, etc.) held roughly

stable at 2.9%, but gains added a further 1.5% to take the all-in yield to 4.4%.

■ Given reinsurers’ strong gearing to investments, these gains had a significant impact on RoE.

The average RoE for SUBSET companies expanded strongly in 2019, from 4.2% to 9.7%.

■ On an underlying basis, however, the SUBSET’s RoE remains low. Normalising reported

RoEs for nat cat losses and stripping out reserve releases, we put the underlying RoE ex-

investment gains at 3.2%. This is a further decline versus 2018’s already low 4.3% and

remains well below the industry’s cost of capital.

(1) We introduced a change in methodology with our half-year 2019 report which included a broader definition of capital, and have additionally

conducted our annual review of constituents with this report. See Appendix 1 for details on our methodology.

(2) INDEX relates to those companies listed within Appendix 2 of this report. SUBSET is defined as those companies that make the relevant

disclosure in relation to nat cat losses and prior year reserve releases. Appendix 2 also identifies the SUBSET companies.


2 April 2020

At a glance Capital

Total industry capital grew robustly in 2019

Total reinsurance dedicated capital (USD billions)(3)

Growth was attributable to INDEX capital, which was fuelled by investment gains

Capital analysis for the INDEX (USD billions)

(3) We have re-stated year-end 2018 capital from USD 461B to USD 526B, to allow for a change in methodology introduced with our HY 2019

report and to allow for our annual review of constituents. The former adds USD 61B to capital and the latter adds USD 20B.

344 330 344371

335

416

496

26 27 3027

33

17

18

6570

7588

93

93

91

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 (re-stated)

FY 2019

INDEX Major regional and local reinsurers + pro-rated portion of capital within major groups Alternative Capital

427449

486461

526

605

435

335

416

496

61

20 2

32 (24)48

419

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Shareholders'equity brought

forward

HY 2019change in

methodology

FY 2019change in

constituents

Adjustedopeningcapital

New reinsurer Net income Buy backs /dividends

Unrealisedinvestment

appreciation

Other(including FXmovement)

Total capitalcarriedforward

National Indemnity


April 2020 3

Underlying RoE for the SUBSET

Strong RoE due to investment gains; excluding gains underlying RoE declined slightly to 3.2%

RoE analysis for the SUBSET(4)

Underlying ex-gains RoE still in gentle decline, and well below the industry’s cost of capital

RoE for the SUBSET(5)

(4) Note that we have slightly revised the impact of normalised nat cats on RoE and have restated prior-year underlying RoEs. As originally

reported, FY 2018’s underlying RoE was 2.7%.

(5) S&P WACC (weighted average cost of capital) figures. For FY 2018, data labels relate to the dotted lines, ie RoEs excluding investment

gains/losses.

1.4%

4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5%3.2%

8.2%

2.8%

5.3%3.5%

4.4% 4.5%

2.3%2.0%

1.2%

-0.3% -0.3%

5.2%

5.2%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

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2017 2018 2019

Investment gains

Investment gains

11.6%11.3%

10.2%

8.2%

1.4%

9.7%

7.2%

6.3%

4.2% 4.3% 4.5%

8.4%

4.5% 4.5%

4.3%3.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019

Reported RoE for the SUBSET Underlying RoE for the SUBSET

Reported RoE for the SUBSET, excluding investment gains/losses Underlying RoE for the SUBSET, excluding investment gains/losses

WACC


4 April 2020

Combined ratio for the SUBSET

Reported and underlying combined ratios increased in 2019

Reported and underlying combined ratio for the SUBSET(6)

Less support from reserve releases

Combined ratio detail for the SUBSET

SUBSET FY

2013 FY

2014 FY

2015 FY

2016 FY

2017 FY

2018 FY

2019

Reported combined ratio 90.3% 90.7% 89.3% 92.9% 107.4% 99.2% 100.6%

Remove prior year development 6.2% 5.6% 6.7% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% 2.3%

Accident year combined ratio 96.5% 96.3% 96.0% 99.2% 112.7% 103.8% 102.9%

Strip out nat cat loss -4.8% -2.8% -1.5% -4.7% -18.1% -8.6% -8.1%

Ex-nat cat accident year combined ratio

91.7% 93.5% 94.5% 94.5% 94.6% 95.2% 94.9%

Add in normalised nat cat loss 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 7.1% 8.2%

Underlying combined ratio 98.1% 99.9% 100.9% 100.9% 101.0% 102.3% 103.1%

(6) The normalised nat cat loss and the underlying combined ratio metrics were new in our HY 2019 report and the full-year figures are being

shown for the first time in this report. We replace actual nat cats with their five year moving average (measured on a full-year basis).

90.3%90.7%

89.3%

92.9%

107.4%

99.2%100.6%

98.1%

99.9%100.9%

100.9%

101.0%

102.3%

103.1%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019

Reported combined ratio for the SUBSET Underlying combined ratio


April 2020 5

Expenses for the SUBSET

Robust premium growth outpaced expense growth in 2019, bringing the expense ratio down

Weighted average expense ratio for the SUBSET

Investment yield for the SUBSET

Overall investment yield boosted by gains (both realised and unrealised)

Investment yield for the SUBSET(7)

(7) Running yield captures items such as bond coupons, equity dividends and interest income.

32.0% 32.1%

31.2%

32.1%

33.1% 33.2%

32.8%33.0%

31.8%

30%

31%

31%

32%

32%

33%

33%

34%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Revised methodology As originally reported

2.8% 2.9%

-0.1%

1.5%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

FY 2018 FY 2019

Running yield Gains yield


6 April 2020

Capital Total reinsurance dedicated capital

Total industry capital grew robustly in 2019

Chart 1: Total reinsurance dedicated capital (USD billions)(8)

■ Global reinsurance dedicated capital totalled USD 605B as of the end of 2019. This is a

robust 15% increase from a re-stated USD 526B at year-end 2018(9).

■ Over the past five years, and not counting the impact of our 2018 restatement, we calculate

that the industry’s capital base has grown by 22%, equivalent to an average annual pace of

4%.

■ INDEX companies’ capital grew 19% to USD 496B (FY 2018 re-stated: USD 416B). This was

partly offset by a modest 3% contraction in alternative capital. This drop was primarily due to

loss deterioration from 2017-18 nat cats. While some investors had outflows of capital in

2019, others with different strategies had quite significant inflows.

(8) We have re-stated year-end 2018 capital from USD 461B to USD 526B, to allow for a change in methodology introduced with our HY 2019

report and to allow for our annual review of constituents. The former adds USD 61B to capital and the latter adds USD 20B. (9) We introduced a change in methodology with our half-year 2019 report which included a broader definition of capital, and have additionally

conducted our annual review of constituents with this report. See Appendix 1 for details on our methodology.

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335

416

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26 27 3027

33

17

18

6570

7588

93

93

91

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 (re-stated)

FY 2019

INDEX Major regional and local reinsurers + pro-rated portion of capital within major groups Alternative Capital

427449

486461

526

605

435


April 2020 7

INDEX capital

Growth was attributable to INDEX capital, which was fuelled by investment gains

Chart 2: Capital analysis for the INDEX (USD billions)

■ As seen at the half-year stage, strong investment markets were the main driver of the

industry’s capital growth.

■ This is best illustrated in the waterfall Chart 2 of INDEX companies’ capital development. As

well as strong unrealised investment appreciation, totalling USD 67B, investment gains also

accounted for over half of net income (as discussed below in the RoE section). Unrealised

investment appreciation plus gains recognised within net income accounted for the entirety of

the 19% growth in INDEX capital.

■ Fully 60% of the growth came from the USD 48B appreciation of National Indemnity’s large

equity investment portfolio and excluding that, INDEX growth was 8%.

335

416

496

61

20 2

32 (24)48

419

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Shareholders'equity brought

forward

HY 2019change in

methodology

FY 2019change in

constituents

Adjustedopeningcapital

New reinsurer Net income Buy backs /dividends

Unrealisedinvestment

appreciation

Other(including FXmovement)

Total capitalcarriedforward

National Indemnity


8 April 2020

National Indemnity led the growth in capital, due to strong gearing to equity markets

Chart 3: Movement in capital reported as at FY 2019 for the INDEX constituents(10)

■ National Indemnity also led its peers with 37% growth in its capital base in 2019. Only two

companies saw a reduction in capital in 2019 – Great West Lifeco and Sirius, with the former

deliberate taking down its capital base through a large dividend and share buy-back.

(10) Excludes companies who have not yet reported FY 2019.

36.9

% 32.9

%

22.8

%

21.7

%

20.7

%

19.8

%

18.6

%

18.4

%

17.4

%

16.7

%

15.1

%

14.7

%

14.6

%

14.2

%

12.8

%

11.7

%

11.7

%

11.4

%

10.0

%

9.8

% 6.6

%

6.6

%

6.2

%

6.1

% 2.8

%

2.6

%

1.7

%

-1.9

%

-3.8

%-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


April 2020 9

Return of capital

Reinsurers continue to pay out the vast majority of net income

Chart 4: Return of capital (as percent of opening shareholders’ equity) and payout ratio for the INDEX

■ Last year’s strong capital growth was achieved despite reinsurers continuing to pay out

significant percentages of both capital and earnings in the form of dividends and share buy-

backs.

■ In 2019 INDEX companies paid out USD 24B, or 6.4% of their opening shareholders’ equity,

mainly in the form of dividends. This was the highest payout in absolute terms and second-

higest in percentage terms going back to 2014.

■ The sector’s strong earnings means that the payout as a percentage of net income dropped in

2019, but to a still high 77%.

61%

77%

62%

130%

86%78%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% o

f net earn

ings

% o

f openin

g s

hare

hold

ers

’ equity

Dividends / equity Share buy-backs / equity Total payout / net earnings


10 April 2020

A number of reinsurers paid back more than 5% of their capital bases

Chart 5: Return of capital (as percent of opening shareholders’ equity) for the INDEX constituents

■ Great West Lifeco and IRB each paid out nearly 15% of their opening shareholders’ equity as

either dividends or buy-backs, and the capital returned in 2019 by most of the reinsurers in

our INDEX exceeded their 2018 payouts.

In the remainder of the report we focus on our SUBSET constituents.

14

.9%

14

.6%

9.7

% 9.0

%

8.5

%

7.1

% 6.2

%

6.0

%

5.5

%

5.5

% 4.7

%

4.4

% 3.3

%

3.2

%

3.1

%

3.0

%

2.8

%

2.6

%

2.5

%

2.5

%

1.9

%

1.7

%

1.3

%

1.2

% 0.3

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

FY 2019

FY 2018


April 2020 11

Return on equity

Strong RoE due to investment gains; excluding gains underlying RoE declined slightly to 3.2%

Chart 6: RoE analysis for the SUBSET(11)

Underlying ex-gains RoE still in gentle decline, and well below the industry’s cost of capital

Chart 7: RoE for the SUBSET(12)

(11) Note that we have slightly revised the impact of normalised nat cats on RoE and have restated prior-year underlying RoEs. As originally reported, FY 2018’s underlying RoE was 2.7% versus the 4.0% shown here. (12) S&P WACC (weighted average cost of capital) figures. For FY 2018, data labels relate to the dotted lines, ie RoEs excluding investment gains/losses.

1.4%

4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5%3.2%

8.2%

2.8%

5.3%3.5%

4.4% 4.5%

2.3%2.0%

1.2%

-0.3% -0.3%

5.2%

5.2%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

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2017 2018 2019

Investment gains

Investment gains

11.6%11.3%

10.2%

8.2%

1.4%

9.7%

7.2%

6.3%

4.2% 4.3% 4.5%

8.4%

4.5% 4.5%

4.3%3.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019

Reported RoE for the SUBSET Underlying RoE for the SUBSET

Reported RoE for the SUBSET, excluding investment gains/losses Underlying RoE for the SUBSET, excluding investment gains/losses

WACC Underlying RoE for the SUBSET, as previously published


12 April 2020

■ The average RoE for SUBSET companies expanded strongly in 2019, from 4.2% to 9.7%.

However, this is entirely explained by a high level of investment gains. Excluding gains, the

RoE was stable at 4.5%.

■ Going a step further, and normalising reported RoEs for nat cat losses (replacing the actual

2019 impact with the five-year moving average) and stripping out reserve releases, we put the

underlying RoE at 8.4%. Removing the impact of investment gains, the underlying RoE was

3.2%. This is a further decline versus 2018’s already low 4.3%.

■ As discussed below, a principle driver of this underlying drop was a slightly higher underlying

combined ratio.

■ With this low underlying RoE, the SUBSET companies continue in aggregate to generate

shareholder returns that are materially below their weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

S&P puts the reinsurance industry’s WACC at 6.5-7.5%.

Strongest RoEs for the US/Bermudans, who recorded particularly high investment gains

Chart 8: Reported RoE for the SUBSET constituents(13)

■ Looking at individual company all-in RoEs, a number of reinsurers achieved RoEs well into

the teens. This was particularly the case with the US and Bermudan reinsurers where, under

US GAAP, unrealised gains on equities flow through the P&L.

(13) RoEs are based on ‘all-in’ net income. They do not necessarily match the ‘headline’ RoEs reported by the companies as these are sometimes struck on an operating net income basis.

17.8

%

16.5

%

15.3

%

14.6

%

13.6

%

13.6

%

13.1

%

11.9

%

11.8

%

10.5

%

10.4

%

9.5

% 6.9

%

6.1

% 2.5

%

-0.5

%

-2.8

%

-9.0

%

9.7%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

FY 2019

FY 2018

FY 2019 SUBSET


April 2020 13

Underwriting performance Premium volumes

Double-digit premium growth reported by a number of SUBSET constituents

Chart 9: 2019 change in relevant(14) net earned premium (USD basis) for the SUBSET constituents

■ A number of SUBSET companies reported premium growth well into the double digits, with

average growth across the group of 11%.

■ Renaissance Re’s 69% growth was driven large measure by its Tokio Millenium Re

acquisition.

■ Swiss Re attributes its strong growth to an increased volume of large transactions and growth

in the nat cat line of business.

(14) Net earned premiums relate to the reinsurance segment if disclosure is available, or otherwise to the consolidated group. Appendix 1 explains in more detail.

68.9

%

19.8

%

17.6

%

16.3

%

14.2

%

12.7

%

12.4

%

9.9

%

9.6

%

6.8

%

6.6

%

4.8

%

4.1

%

2.0

%

-0.1

%

-0.1

%

-1.3

%

-2.7

%

11.0%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%FY 2019

FY 2019 SUBSET


14 April 2020

Combined ratios

Reported and underlying combined ratios increased in 2019

Chart 10: Reported and underlying combined ratio for the SUBSET(15)

Less support from reserve releases

Chart 11: Combined ratio detail for the SUBSET

SUBSET FY

2013 FY

2014 FY

2015 FY

2016 FY

2017 FY

2018 FY

2019

Reported combined ratio 90.3% 90.7% 89.3% 92.9% 107.4% 99.2% 100.6%

Remove prior year development 6.2% 5.6% 6.7% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% 2.3%

Accident year combined ratio 96.5% 96.3% 96.0% 99.2% 112.7% 103.8% 102.9%

Strip out nat cat loss -4.8% -2.8% -1.5% -4.7% -18.1% -8.6% -8.1%

Ex-nat cat accident year combined ratio

91.7% 93.5% 94.5% 94.5% 94.6% 95.2% 94.9%

Add in normalised nat cat loss 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 7.1% 8.2%

Underlying combined ratio 98.1% 99.9% 100.9% 100.9% 101.0% 102.3% 103.1%

(15) The normalised nat cat loss and the underlying combined ratio metrics were new in our HY 2019 report and the full-year figures are being shown for the first time in this report. We replace actual nat cats with their five year moving average (measured on a full-year basis).

90.3%90.7%

89.3%

92.9%

107.4%

99.2%100.6%

98.1%

99.9%100.9%

100.9%

101.0%

102.3%

103.1%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019

Reported combined ratio for the SUBSET Underlying combined ratio


April 2020 15

■ The reported combined ratio for the SUBSET increased in 2019, from 99.2% to 100.6%.

■ Replacing actual 2019 nat cats with a normalised level (the five year moving average) and

stripping out reserve releases, we calculate the underlying combined ratio to be 103.1%.

■ The underlying combined ratio has been gently increasing every year going back to 2013, and

the full-year 2019 increase reverses what had been a small improvement at the half-year

stage.

■ Given low and often negative interest rates, reinsurers need to be earning a combined ratio

well below 100% to achieve an adequate RoE.

■ Price increases began to accelerate in a number of market segments in 2019, but a 103%

starting point shows the large gap the industry needs to close in order to restore profitability.

Widely varying reported combined ratio performances in 2019 vs 2018

Chart 12: Reported combined ratios for the SUBSET constituents

11

0.8

%

10

9.1

%

10

7.4

%

10

4.0

%

10

3.2

%

10

3.1

%

10

1.2

%

10

1.0

%

10

0.9

%

10

0.3

%

99

.0%

98

.2%

96

.9%

96

.5%

95

.5%

94

.9%

92

.3%

80

.9%

100.6%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

FY 2019

FY 2018

FY 2019 SUBSET


16 April 2020

Few companies achieved underlying combined ratios below 100% in 2019

Chart 13: Underlying combined ratio for the SUBSET constituents

■ Several individual companies reported combined ratios significantly above 100%, with reserve

increases a frequent driver (more on this below).

■ On an underlying basis, over half of the 18 SUBSET companies recorded combined ratios

above 100%.

1

21

.3%

10

9.2

%

10

7.9

%

10

7.4

%

10

6.7

%

10

5.0

%

10

4.8

%

10

3.7

%

10

2.0

%

10

1.3

%

10

0.7

%

99

.8%

98

.3%

97

.6%

97

.5%

97

.2%

96

.5%

88

.7%

103.1%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

FY 2019

FY 2018

FY 2019 SUBSET


April 2020 17

Prior year loss development

Support from reserve releases continues to decline

Chart 14: Prior year development impact on combined ratio for the SUBSET (positive number =

benefit)(16)

■ The support to combined ratios and earnings from reserve releases continues to reduce. In

2019, the benefit to the SUBSET average combined ratio decreased from 4.6% to 2.3%.

(16) Positive number indicates a favourable prior year impact.

6.2%

5.6%

6.7%6.3%

5.3%

4.6%

2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019


18 April 2020

Continued reduction in aggregate reserve releases

Chart 15: Prior year development for the SUBSET (positive number = benefit)(17)

■ As a percentage of group pre-tax profit, reserve releases average 13% for the SUBSET in

2019, the lowest ratio going back to 2009.

(17) Aggregate prior year reserve release calculated before tax.

4,357

5,303

6,853 6,861

7,631

6,837

7,8857,385

6,472

5,424

2,516

1,962

534

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 HY2018

HY2019

Aggregate amount of PYD (USD M) PYD as % pre-tax profit


April 2020 19

Much reduced reserve releases for most of the companies

Chart 16: Prior year development impact on combined ratio for the SUBSET constituents (positive

number = benefit)

■ More companies are also now posting net adverse reserve development. In 2019, five of the

18 SUBSET companies recorded a net reserve increase, led by ARGO and Sirius with 7-8

percentage point impacts on the combined ratio.

20

.9%

14

.1%

7.2

%

6.5

%

5.6

%

4.5

%

3.6

%

3.0

%

1.9

%

1.1

%

1.1

%

0.9

%

0.8

%

-0.3

% -3.5

%

-4.4

% -7.2

%

-8.0

%

2.3%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35% FY 2019

FY 2018

FY 2019 SUBSET


20 April 2020

Catastrophe losses

2019 saw below-average nat cats

Chart 17: Nat cat impact on combined ratio for SUBSET

Nearly all companies had a reduced nat cat load in 2019

Chart 18: Nat cat impact on combined ratio for SUBSET constituents

25.8%24.8%

4.8%

2.8%

1.5%

4.7%

18.1%

8.6%8.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 … 2011 … 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

13

.5%

12

.5%

12

.4%

11

.6%

10

.7%

10

.4%

10

.2%

10

.1%

10

.0%

7.4

%

6.9

% 5.4

%

5.0

%

5.9

% 4.1

%

3.8

%

3.1

%

1.9

%

8.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY 2019

FY 2018

FY 2019 SUBSET


April 2020 21

■ Research from both Munich Re and Swiss Re indicate that insured nat cat losses (at both the

insurance and reinsurance level) were below their ten year averages. Munich Re, for

instance, puts the 2019 insured loss at USD 52B, versus the ten year average of USD 65B.

Similarly, Swiss Re calculates insured losses to be USD 56B versus the ten year average of

USD 75B.

■ On our calculations, the average nat cat load for the SUBSET equates to 8.1 percentage

points on the combined ratio, close to the 8.2% five year average. Noteable events in the

year were typhoons Hagibis and Faxai in Japan and hurricane Dorian in the Atlantic.


22 April 2020

Expense ratios

Robust premium growth outpaced expense growth in 2019, bringing the expense ratio down

Chart 19: Weighted average expense ratio for the SUBSET

■ On a like-for-like basis(18), the SUBSET expense ratio dropped slightly, from 32.1% in 2018 to

31.8%. The absolute amount of expenses grew by 10%, but this was slightly outpaced by the

SUBSET’s premium growth of 11%.

(18) The revised methodology we introduced with our half-year 2019 report has produced a discontinuity in our time series of SUBSET expense ratios. Several of the companies removed from our constituent list, partlcularly Lloyd’s companies, have high expense ratios. Therefore, our ‘revised methodology’ expense ratios for 2017 and 2018 are approximately one percentage point lower than the ratios we originally reported.

32.0%32.1%

31.2%

32.1%

33.1% 33.2%

32.8%33.0%

31.8%

30%

31%

31%

32%

32%

33%

33%

34%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Revised methodology As originally reported


April 2020 23

Investment performance Overall investment yield boosted by gains (both realised and unrealised)

Chart 20: Investment yield for the SUBSET(19)

A number of US / Bermuda companies in particular recorded very high yields

Chart 21: Investment yield for the SUBSET constituents

(19) Running yield captures items such as bond coupons, equity dividends and interest income.

2.8% 2.9%

-0.1%

1.5%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

FY 2018 FY 2019

Running yield Gains yield

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Total 2019 yield

Total 2018 yield


24 April 2020

■ Similar to the picture seen at the half-year stage, investment yields in 2019 were substantially

augmented by investment gains. The running investment yield (ie bond coupons, equity

dividends, etc) held roughly stable at 2.9%, but gains added a further 1.5% to take the all-in

yield to 4.4%. Gains were a small net negative in 2018, taking that year’s all-in yield to 2.7%.

■ Given reinsurers’ strong gearing to investments, these gains had a significant impact on RoE.

As mentioned in the RoE section above, investment gains accounted for more than half of the

SUBSET’s RoE in 2019.

■ The US and Bermudan reinsurers in particular recorded high total investment yields (ie

running plus gains). As mentioned above, this is attributable to a difference between US

GAAP and IFRS accounting whereby, under US GAAP, unrealised gains on equities flow

through the P&L.

■ In addition to the yields shown here and their impact on RoEs and net earnings, appreciation

in investments also boosted reinsurers’ capital via growth in unrealised gains. For the INDEX

companies, as shown in the capital waterfall chart on page 7, this impact was actually greater

than the support from net income.


April 2020 25

Appendix 1 Methodology

In our HY 2019 report we broadened our definition of capital to include subordinated debt and minority

interests. We also introduced the rules below to choose the constituents of our capital calculation for

the traditional reinsurance market. As per Chart 1, these components are the INDEX, Major regional

and local reinsurers, and pro-rated portion of capital within major groups.

We review and adjust our constituents annually based on year-end data.

The constituents of these components within this report have been selected by applying the rules

below to year-end 2019 disclosures. We also restate the prior year capital position. The impact on

the previous year’s capital position from these constituent changes is the USD 20 billion ‘FY 2019

change in constituents’ shown in Chart 1.

INDEX

Capital at least USD 1B or total group NWP at least USD 1B, and reinsurance NWP at least 10% of

group NWP.

Major regional and local reinsurers(20)

Capital at least USD 250M or total group NWP at least USD 250M, and reinsurance NWP at least

10% of group NWP.

Pro rata of composites(21)

In the case of large groups whose reinsurance NWP is less than 10% of group NWP, we take a pro-

rated portion of capital which must be at least USD 250M.

Segment versus group data for the SUBSET

In our combined ratio analysis, we use P&C reinsurance segment combined ratios for those SUBSET

reinsurers which provide the disclosure. Otherwise, we use group combined ratios. In calculating the

SUBSET averages we weight these combined ratios according to the appropriate segment or group

net earned premium. In the section on premium volumes we show the growth rate in this ‘relevant

NEP’. In Appendix 2, premium income is on a written basis and relates to the entire group.

(20) Applies to constituents which don’t qualify for the INDEX.

(21) Applies to constituents which don’t qualify for the INDEX or Major regional and local reinsurers.


26 April 2020

Appendix 2 Appendi x 2

NB

: S

ha

de

d r

ow

s in

th

e a

bo

ve

su

mm

ary

de

no

te S

UB

SE

T g

rou

ps

App

en

dix

2

FY

2019 r

esu

lts

su

mm

ary

fo

r th

e W

illis R

ein

su

ran

ce In

dex

FY

2017

FY

2018

FY

2019

∆ FY

FY

2017

FY

2018

FY

2019

∆ FY

FY

2017

FY

2018

FY

2019

∆ FY

FY

2017

FY

2018

FY

2019

∆ FY

Alle

ghany

(1)

8,6

21

7,8

62

8,9

81

14.2

%4,9

66

5,0

48

5,7

52

13.9

%90

40

858

2069.5

%106.9

%105.4

%100.9

%-4

.5%

Arc

h C

apital

(1)

10,0

40

10,2

31

12,2

60

19.8

%4,9

61

5,3

47

6,0

39

12.9

%567

714

1,5

95

123.5

%99.9

%94.5

%94.9

%0.4

%

AR

GO

2,0

76

2,0

04

2,0

39

1.7

%1,6

54

1,7

66

1,7

54

-0.6

%50

64

-8-1

13.2

%107.2

%97.9

%109.1

%11.2

%

Aspen

(1)

2,9

29

2,6

56

2,7

26

2.6

%2,2

13

2,0

82

2,4

28

16.6

%-2

68

-147

-242

64.6

%125.1

%104.0

%103.1

%-0

.9%

Axis

Capital

(1)

5,3

41

5,0

30

5,9

64

18.6

%4,0

27

4,6

59

4,4

90

-3.6

%-3

69

43

323

651.9

%107.1

%98.4

%101.2

%2.8

%

CC

R,

Fra

nce

(2)

2,9

06

2,9

03

2,8

46

-2.0

%1,4

52

1,6

18

1,5

35

-5.1

%51

156

148

-5.1

%93.1

%95.1

%95.1

%0.0

%

Chin

a R

e11,5

83

12,6

87

13,9

28

9.8

%14,9

34

17,2

92

19,5

13

12.8

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564

876

55.3

%104.0

%99.6

%101.3

%1.7

%

Conve

x(2

)0

01,8

00

00

00

00

DE

VK

Re

(2)

1,9

65

2,3

35

2,2

89

-2.0

%2,2

96

2,5

54

2,4

23

-5.1

%0

46

44

-5.1

%97.3

%94.9

%94.9

%0.0

%

Eve

rest

Re

8,6

06

8,1

40

9,3

70

15.1

%6,2

45

7,4

14

7,8

24

5.5

%469

104

1,0

09

874.8

%103.5

%108.8

%95.5

%-1

3.3

%

Fairfa

x18,6

48

17,5

88

18,0

88

2.8

%9,9

84

12,4

31

13,8

36

11.3

%1,7

41

376

2,0

04

433.0

%106.6

%97.3

%96.9

%-0

.4%

Fid

elis

(2)

1,3

05

1,2

08

1,2

08

0.0

%409

492

492

0.0

%31

79

79

0.0

%85.9

%80.6

%80.6

%0.0

%

Genera

l R

e(5

)11,3

93

10,5

50

12,1

04

14.7

%886

1,3

46

1,7

16

27.5

%301

508

440

-13.5

%122.9

%110.2

%103.7

%-6

.5%

GIC

India

(3)

8,0

38

7,7

64

7,2

71

-6.3

%5,8

38

5,5

77

5,5

18

-1.1

%502

318

315

-1.1

%106.3

%105.9

%105.9

%0.0

%

Gre

at

West

Life

co

21,1

42

20,1

52

19,7

70

-1.9

%26,1

14

27,3

55

18,4

69

-32.5

%1,7

55

2,3

87

1,8

78

-21.3

%

Ham

ilton R

e(2

)1,5

73

1,7

59

1,7

59

0.0

%346

378

378

0.0

%20

246

246

0.0

%135.8

%120.8

%120.8

%0.0

%

Hannove

r R

e(1

)12,9

42

12,6

35

15,2

50

20.7

%18,1

47

20,5

26

22,7

75

11.0

%1,0

81

1,2

50

1,4

37

15.0

%99.8

%96.5

%98.2

%1.7

%

IRB

Bra

zil

1,0

81

1,0

33

1,1

55

11.7

%1,2

69

1,3

93

1,5

94

14.4

%290

334

447

34.0

%86.3

%83.2

%80.0

%-3

.2%

Kore

an R

e2,0

25

2,0

10

2,1

32

6.1

%4,4

43

4,8

34

4,7

43

-1.9

%118

94

164

75.3

%98.3

%100.5

%100.0

%-0

.5%

Lancashire

1,3

04

1,2

62

1,3

88

10.0

%398

418

425

1.7

%-7

138

118

215.2

%124.9

%92.2

%80.9

%-1

1.3

%

MA

PF

RE

13,3

65

11,8

14

12,5

99

6.6

%21,8

93

22,6

09

21,1

64

-6.4

%790

624

1,0

69

71.5

%98.1

%97.6

%97.6

%0.0

%

Mark

el

(1)

9,5

02

9,1

00

11,0

78

21.7

%4,4

18

4,7

88

5,4

12

13.0

%395

-128

1,7

90

-1496.8

%132.0

%113.0

%104.0

%-9

.0%

Mill

i R

e545

434

489

12.8

%1,1

62

1,0

29

1,0

52

2.3

%75

57

55

-5.1

%107.0

%124.0

%116.0

%-8

.0%

Munic

h R

e(1

)37,2

10

34,5

65

38,6

21

11.7

%53,6

15

55,1

07

57,6

01

4.5

%423

2,7

25

3,0

49

11.9

%114.1

%99.4

%101.0

%1.6

%

National In

dem

nity

(5)

128,5

63

122,4

71

167,7

18

36.9

%24,0

31

27,9

56

26,9

85

-3.5

%2,0

80

10,1

39

9,1

98

-9.3

%103.8

%97.8

%98.6

%0.8

%

Pacifi

c L

ifeC

orp

(4)

13,7

04

13,0

72

16,0

55

22.8

%5,0

37

5,7

42

7,0

35

22.5

%1,3

65

913

725

-20.6

%

Part

ner

Re

6,8

16

6,5

88

7,3

40

11.4

%5,1

20

5,8

03

6,9

09

19.1

%264

-86

937

-1189.3

%99.3

%101.9

%100.3

%-1

.6%

QIC

2,7

17

2,6

33

2,8

06

6.6

%2,6

08

2,9

69

3,0

48

2.7

%114

177

179

0.8

%105.8

%101.3

%103.3

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%

R&

V V

ers

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ng

(2)(

5)

2,5

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2,4

61

2,4

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-2.0

%3,1

16

3,2

61

3,0

94

-5.1

%159

114

108

-5.1

%104.6

%99.4

%99.4

%0.0

%

Renais

sance R

e4,3

91

5,0

45

5,9

71

18.4

%1,8

71

2,1

32

3,3

81

58.6

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22

227

749

229.3

%137.9

%87.6

%92.3

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RG

A(4

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88

9,5

69

12,7

20

32.9

%9,8

41

10,5

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11,2

97

7.1

%1,8

22

716

870

21.5

%

SC

OR

10,1

30

9,2

80

9,8

56

6.2

%15,1

81

16,2

57

16,1

68

-0.6

%322

380

472

24.3

%103.7

%99.4

%99.0

%-0

.4%

Siriu

s2,2

48

2,0

10

1,9

34

-3.8

%1,0

90

1,3

57

1,5

03

10.7

%-1

50

-18

-47

161.3

%107.6

%103.1

%110.8

%7.7

%

Sw

iss R

e(1

)39,2

96

33,3

68

38,9

48

16.7

%32,3

16

34,0

42

39,6

49

16.5

%331

421

727

72.7

%111.5

%104.0

%107.4

%3.4

%

Third P

oin

t R

e1,6

61

1,2

05

1,4

14

17.4

%639

558

623

11.5

%278

-318

201

-163.2

%107.7

%106.8

%103.2

%-3

.6%

Toa R

e(3

)1,8

88

1,6

24

1,7

14

5.5

%2,1

47

2,2

39

2,2

84

2.0

%83

-64

-66

2.0

%96.5

%103.9

%103.9

%0.0

%

Valid

us R

e(2

)4,2

49

3,2

59

3,2

59

0.0

%2,0

45

1,7

01

1,7

01

0.0

%13

-104

-104

0.0

%104.2

%115.9

%115.9

%0.0

%

WR

Berk

ley

(1)

6,1

79

6,3

87

7,3

17

14.6

%6,2

61

6,4

33

6,8

63

6.7

%549

641

682

6.4

%117.6

%106.4

%96.5

%-9

.9%

XL

(1)(

2)

13,8

38

11,6

36

11,6

36

0.0

%10,6

68

11,0

80

11,0

80

0.0

%-3

10

-866

-866

0.0

%102.9

%108.6

%108.6

%0.0

%

Index a

ggre

gate

(6)(

7)

443,0

88

416,3

29

496,2

14

19.2

%313,6

37

338,1

35

348,5

50

3.1

%15,5

15

22,7

60

31,4

58

38.2

%105.7

%100.0

%100.3

%0.3

%

Subset

aggre

gate

(6)(

7)

187,9

39

174,9

56

198,5

44

13.5

%173,1

05

186,1

68

203,4

31

9.3

%5,4

80

6,3

25

15,6

55

147.5

%108.9

%100.5

%100.6

%0.1

%

Gro

up

20

19

re

su

lts

ta

ble

(U

SD

mill

ion

s)

Co

nso

lid

ate

d d

ata

un

less

oth

erw

ise

sta

ted

No

tes

To

tal

ca

pit

al

Ne

t w

ritt

en

pre

miu

mN

et

inco

me

Co

mb

ine

d r

ati

o


April 2020 27

(1) Combined ratios are in respect of the P&C Reinsurance segment only.

(2) Due to lack of disclosure at the time of the report, total capital shown for FY 2019 is based on FY 2018 disclosure.

(3) Companies which have a March 31 financial year-end. Data for the year ended March 31 2019 is included in the column headed FY

2018 (and similar for prior years), and FY 2019 data is also based on year-end March 31 2019 disclosure.

(4) Figures for net premiums are net earned premiums, not net written premiums.

(5) Numbers are sourced from unconsolidated financial statements.

(6) Total of numbers reported, converted to USD at exchange rates prevailing at end of reporting period for total capital figures. For net

income and NWP figures, we use average exchange rates over the reporting period.

(7) Pre-FY 2019 aggregates shown in this appendix will not necessarily match the aggregates shown in body of report. In the body, prior

year figures have generally not been restated for changes in constituents. The figures here have been restated.

The information compiled in this report by Willis Towers Watson is compiled from third party sources which we consider

to be reliable. However we do not guarantee and are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness and no warranty

or representation of accuracy or completeness is given.

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