wimax and lte 4ging ahead - significant opportunities for test equipment vendors
TRANSCRIPT
WiMAX and LTE 4Ging Ahead – Significant Opportunities for Test Equipment Vendors
Vijay Mathew, Senior Research Analyst
Test & Measurement
October 2009
2
Focus Points
77 List of Major Industry Participants List of Major Industry Participants
22
33
44
55
11
Market Drivers and RestraintsMarket Drivers and Restraints
Market & Technology TrendsMarket & Technology Trends
Revenue Forecasts and ProjectionsRevenue Forecasts and Projections
Market Segment AnalysisMarket Segment Analysis
Market Segmentation and DefinitionsMarket Segmentation and Definitions
66 ConclusionsConclusions
3
Market Segmentation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Total WiMAX & LTE Test Equipment
Market
Base Station &
Mobile Station
GeographicAnalysis
WiMAX Test Equipment
LTE Test Equipment
ApplicationAnalysis
Base Station &
Mobile Station
GeographicAnalysis
ApplicationAnalysis
Base Year : 2008Forecast Period : 2009 – 2013Geographic Focus : Global
Geographic analysis includes
• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Rest-of-World
Application analysis includes
• Research and Development (R&D)
• Manufacturing
• Installation and Maintenance (I&M)
4
Key Drivers Summary
Stimulus Bill Boosts Wireless
Infrastructure Development
Initiatives
Smart Antenna Technology Creates
Opportunities for Test Equipment Vendors
Constant Updates to the 3GPP Standard Creates Testing Opportunities
Demand for Mobile Broadband Wireless Access Accelerates
Evolution to 4G Technology
Competition Drives the WiMAX and LTE
Market
Proliferation of Internet Friendly Devices Fuels Demand for WiMAX and
LTE Test Equipment
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5
Tight Budgets due to Economic
Downturn Restrains Growth
Lack of Availability of Complete
Test Systems Hinders Growth Consolidation
Restrains Growth
Key Restraints Summary
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Shortage of Handsets
Restricts End User Penetration
6
Market and Technology Trends
Femtocell
Testing
France, Germany, and
Japan out Of
Recession
Growth in Wireless Data
Usage
Need For Multi-Mode
Test Equipment
Industry Split over Approach to Voice
over LTE
WiMAX&
LTETest Equipment
Market
7
Revenue Forecasts and Projections
Total Market Size $396.2 million in 2008
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Re
ve
nu
es
($
Millio
n)
2008 2013
Year
WiMAX and LTE Test Equipment Market: Revenue
Forecasts (World), 2008-2013
WiMAX
LTE
Source: Frost & Sullivan
• The global WiMAX and LTE test equipment revenues in 2008 were $396.2 million with WiMAX test equipment
accounting for around 55.7 and LTE test equipment 45.3 percent of revenues. Research indicates a dramatic
turnaround by 2013 with WiMAX accounting for 17.0 percent and LTE 83.0 percent of revenues.
• Growth rates for both the markets vary significantly. With LTE currently in its early testing phase it offers more
opportunities to test equipment vendors while WiMAX’s R&D phase is almost completely over and testing opportunities
have moved on to manufacturing and monitoring applications.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Revenues (%
)
LTE
WiMAX
8
Geographic Analysis
20.80%
33.2%
27.6%
18.4%
North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest-of-world
WiMAX Test Equipment Market: Percent of Revenues by Geographic Region (World), 2008
31.0%
36.2%
32.8%
North America Europe Asia Pacific
LTE Test Equipment Market: Percent of Revenues by Geographic Region (World), 2008
Asia Pacific region remains at the forefront of WiMAX innovation in 2009. Tier-1 operators such as KDDI, TataCommunications, Reliance Communications and Korea Telecom are still investing heavily in the technology and the region is also home to many greenfield WiMAX operators.
With Verizon Wireless paving the way for LTE deployment a majority of the demand for LTE test equipment comes from North America, with 36.2 percent of overall revenues. The United States is the second largest market for 3G and the growing popularity of smartphones and increasing consumer interest in data-intensive applications has accelerated the migration to 4G networks.
9
Application Analysis
LTE Test Equipment Market: Percent of Revenues by Application (World), 2008
With WiMAX and mobile WiMAX services currently being available across the globe, the laboratory testing phase of the technology is almost over and in 2008, the R&D application accounted for 12.0 percent of revenues in the WiMAX test equipment market.
With the first LTE deployment expected by the end of 2009, the R&D segment contributed 98.0 percent of the market revenues in 2008. With 39 operator commitments the LTE market is expected to reach critical mass by 2012-2013.
42.0%
12.0%
46.0%
R&D Manufacturing I&M
WiMAX Test Equipment Market: Percent of Revenues by Application (World), 2008
2.0%
98.0%
R&D Manufacturing
10
WiMAX&
LTE TestEquipment
Maintaining Close Relationships with
Customers
Maintaining Close Relationships with
Customers
Global PresenceGlobal Presence
Test Equipment Vendors Unsure Which Way to Go
Test Equipment Vendors Unsure Which Way to Go Knowledge of the MarketKnowledge of the Market
Compressed Timelines Will be the Biggest
Challenge
Compressed Timelines Will be the Biggest
ChallengeLTE Offers Biggest Growth Oportunity
LTE Offers Biggest Growth Oportunity
Conclusions
11
Key Market Players
12
Next Steps
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13
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For Additional Information
Jake Wengroff
Global Director
Corporate Communications
(210) 247-3806
Vijay Mathew
Senior Research Analyst
Test & Measurement
+91.44.39144890
Jessy Cavazos
Industry Manager
Test & Measurement
(325) 695-6332
Kiran Unni
Research Manager
Measurement & Instrumentation Practice
(210) 247-2495