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Wind Energy: the past, the present and the future
Prof.dr. Gerard J.W. van BusselChair Wind energyFaculty Aerospace EngineeringTU Delft, Netherlands
7th December 2016 TU Delft
The Past
(Looking ~ 40 years backward)
Dennis Meadows Club of Rome Report 1972Systems Dynamics Group (MIT) “The Limits of Growth”
The Limits of Growth 1972
• CO2 concentration: 380 ppm
• World population: 6 billion
• Depletion of resources: 30%
• Climate change identified not yet quantified
Predictions for 2000: (28 years ahead)
1972 2000 2009
De standaarduitkomst
1900 21001972 2000 2009
De standaarduitkomst
1900 2100
The oil crisis (1973)
Saudi Arabian boycott
Period 1970 – 1985
• 1972 Report Club of Rome
(The Limits of Growth)
• 1973 Saudi Arabian boycott: Oil Crisis
=> oil scarcity
• 1975 First National Research Programme
Wind Energy Defined (NOW1)
• 1977 Start Wind Energy Research TH Delft
• 1981 Evaluation NOW1 by Bureau BEOP
Start of Wind Research at TU Delft (1977)
BEOP: Perspectives for Wind Energy in NL (1981)
• 2500 MW theoretically
possible (in the long run)
• < 650 MW realistically
(loss of power largest issue)
• Deployment after year 2000
• Strong governmental
Support needed
Evaluation NOW1
The technology of the eighties
• Bouma 20 m diameter (1985)
• Generator power 160kW
• Fixed RPM
• Asynchronous generator
1990 1996
~ 350MW installed in NL (~10% of EU)
Growth to 3000 MW in NL possible
- 1500 MW on land
- 1500 MW at sea
1996: Status and scenario in The Netherlands
350 MW
1990
1000 MW
2000 2010
On land
At sea2000 MW
3000 MW
1996: Status and scenario in The Netherlands
~ 350MW installed in NL (~10% of EU)
Growth to 3000 MW in NL possible
- 1500 MW on land
- 1500 MW at sea
The Technology in 2005 (20 years later)
• Vestas V90 90 m diameter
• Generator power 3 MW
• Variable RPM
• DFIG generator
• 2005
•Factor 20 in power
•Factor 30 in production
•in 20 years
1990
1000 MW
2000 2010
On land
At sea2000 MW
Market development in The Netherlands
3000 MW
Scenario Netherlands
Progress: too slow
Incl. Offshore wind farms
MEP boost **
** *
*
SDE
*
end SDE
End of 2016:~4000 MW~7% of EU
The Present
• Europe 134 GW
• Asia Pacific 129 GW
• N+S America 85 GW
• Rest of world 3 GW
Total 351 GW
(End of 2015: 432 GW)
Installed Capacity
at start of 2015:
• Factor 40 in power
• Factor 80 in production (offshore)
• in 30 years
Wind Turbine technology at present
• GE Haliade
• Diameter 150 m
• Generator power 6 MW
• DDPM generator
• Full power converter
• Prototype 2012
Comparable Aircraft Technology
• Lockheed Constellation
• 1946 KLM Amsterdam New-York
• Pressure cabin
• 30-40 passengers
• 550 km/h
• Nose wheel
• 4 engines
• Wing span 38 m
• Fly by cable
• Airbus A380
• 2008 intercontinental operation
- Emerates: Dubay-New York
- Singapore Airlines: Singapore-Sydney
• ~ 500-700 passengers
• 850 km/h
• 4 engines
• Wing span 80 m
• Fly by wire
Development in Aircraft Technology
• Factor 15 in passengers
• Factor 2 in speed
• in 60 years!!
The Future
(Looking ~ 40 years forward)
Eight 100x100 km offshore wind farmsproduce 3,000-3.500 TWh per year
=The complete electricitydemand of the EU in 2005
Europe’s offshore WE potential
Source: Siemens
Europe’s offshore WE potential
Source: Siemens
Twelve 100x100 km offshore wind farms.
Cover the electricitydemand in 2050
Bottom mounted en floating wind turbines
Europe’s offshore WE potential
EU electricity demand (ECF 2010 scenario)
Demand growth rate: 0.7%/year
- yearly economic growth 2.0%
- energy intensity growth -1.3%
Electricity use grows to ~ 4.900 TWh in 2050
Source: EU roadmap 2050
12 12 12 12
12888
1
29
0
19
Solar CSP
Biomass dedicated
Geothermal
Large Hydro
100
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)
Gas and oil conventional
Coal Conventional
80% RES / 10% nuclear / 10% CCS
100
2
5
18
16
16
10
5
50
60% RES / 20% nuclear / 20% CCS
100
2
5
12
10
10
20
10
10
0 0
40% RES / 30% nuclear / 30% CCS
100
2
342
9
30
15
15
0 0
Baseline
0
1 2
9
18
0 0
% of production
Electricity production mix in 2050 in EU
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA, McKinsey
205 205 205 205
170
240
270
585555555
5
0120
290
120
Large Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass dedicated
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)
Additional back-up
Gas and oil conventional
Coal Conventional
60
815
190
245
6045
35
0 0
1,700
80% RES / 10% nuclear / 10% CCS
2,020
60% RES / 20% nuclear / 20% CCS
10
1,110
10
60
555
130
165
125
9065
0 0
40% RES / 30% nuclear / 30% CCS
1,260
1035
195
25140
185
140
100
0 0
Baseline
3525140
1100
In GW, including back-up capacity
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA McKinsey
Electricity capacity mix in 2050 in EU
27
176 197 207 206 203
203
270
222
184
126
1
847769
13
500
0
135
0
68
88
150
2040 2050
Gas and oil conventional
Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)
203020202010
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
NuclearGas CCS
33
0 0
1,741
2,022
7
Coal Conventional
Additional back-up
38
652
184
216
8229 25
10 11
59
247
18
143
190
4
9414
32
1,027
2 42119 20
56
152
1150
341
1066
1300 0
1,393
6147
816
192
9
767
Large HydroGeothermalBiomass dedicatedSolar CSP
+164%
GW, including back-up capacity
Growth of capacity in EU at 80% RES
scenario in 2050
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA analysis; team analysis, McKinsey
Growth of wind power capacity in EU at 80%
RES penetration in 2050
Wind power capacity in EU
66
152190 216
247
2
56
143
184192
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
Offshore
On shore
• Between 2010 and 2030:
largest growth in
onshore wind
• As of 2025: growth in
offshore wind
• In 2050: 440 GW
• Supplies 32% of the
electricity demand in EU
What does this mean for wind power in EU
(in the 80% RES scenario in 2050)?
• Wind on land grows to 247 GW (now ~150 GW)
• Wind at sea grows to 192 GW (now ~12 GW)
• With historic growth rates (30%/yr world; 11%/yr in EU)
will wind on land capacity be realised
(NB: average of 5%/yr growth rate is sufficient)
• Growth of wind at sea more challenging:
- enormous potential
- huge investments
- still high kWh cost (but sharply reduced recently)
Thank you very much for your
interest and attention
Qestions?