FEATURE

REINFORCEDplastics JULY/AUGUST 201232 0034-3617/12 ©2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Wind power – emerging markets drive growthAccording to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)’s latest statistics,

the global wind power industry is set to experience average annual

growth rates of about 8% for the next five years, but with a strong 2012

and a substantial dip in 2013. We review the forecasts.

GWEC’s Global Wind Report – Annual

Market Update 2011 predicts that

the global wind industry will install

more than 46 GW of new wind energy

capacity in 2012, and by the end of 2016

total global wind power capacity will be just

under 500 GW, with an annual market in

that year of about 60 GW.

Total installations for the 2012-2016 period

are expected to reach 255 GW, with cumula-

tive market growth averaging just under 16%.

“For the next fi ve years, annual market

growth will be driven primarily by India and

Brazil, with signifi cant contributions from

new markets in Latin America, Africa and

Asia,” reports Steve Sawyer, GWEC Secretary

General. “While the market continues to

diversify across all continents, it is at the

same time plagued by continued slow

economic growth and budget crises in the

OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-oper-

ation and Development], as well as the

continuing credit crunch.”

Asia in the lead

For the second year running, the majority

of new installations in 2011 were outside

the OECD, reports GWEC, and this trend

is expected to continue. Asia is set to

continue to be the world’s largest market

with far more new installations than any

other region. It is forecast to install 118 GW

between now and 2016, surpassing Europe

as the world leader in cumulative installed

capacity sometime during 2013.

After nearly a decade of double and triple

digit growth, the Chinese market has fi nally

stabilised, notes GWEC, and will remain

roughly at current levels for the next few years.

Having achieved a 3 GW market for the fi rst

time in 2011, the annual market in India is

expected to reach 5 GW by 2015.

The European market remains stable. Given

the EU’s clear policy framework and targets

out to 2020, GWEC believes there are

unlikely to be many major surprises from this

region. Germany had a strong year in 2011

and the government’s decision to phase out

all nuclear power by 2020 gives the wind

industry a boost. Spain had a disappointing

2011 and 2012 is likely to be even more so,

GWEC predicts, but Romania, Poland, Turkey

and Sweden have made progress.

Annual wind energy market forecast by region 2012-2016. (Source: GWEC.)

REPL_2012_04_GWEC feature 32 25-07-12 12:04:48

FEATURE

33REINFORCEDplastics JULY/AUGUST 2012www.reinforcedplastics.com

GWEC expects the North American market

to have a strong 2012, as both Canada

and Mexico will install well over 1000 MW

to complement what is expected to be a

strong year in the US, which began the year

with more than 8 GW under construction.

It now seems unlikely that the reauthorisa-

tion of the US federal Production Tax Credit

will happen in time to have a major impact

on the 2013 market, so a substantial drop

is expected in 2013 in the US market, while

Canada and Mexico remain strong. Overall,

just over 50 GW is expected to be installed

in North America from 2012-2016, bringing

total installed capacity to just over 100 GW

at the end of the period.

The Latin American market is dominated

by Brazil, GWEC reports, which is now

becoming established as a major interna-

tional market with a strong manufacturing

base, and will constitute the vast majority

of the regional growth in the period to

2016.

Offshore buzz

Although off shore wind is often the most

talked about part of the wind sector, it

currently represents less than 2% of global

installed wind power capacity, GWEC points

out. 2011 installations of about 1000 MW

represented approximately 2.5% of the

annual market. By 2020, off shore wind is

likely to account for no more than 10% of

global installed capacity.

GWEC points out several reasons for the

huge interest in off shore wind energy:

it is a relatively new technology with •

signifi cant opportunities for cost reduction

and technical innovations;

wind resources off shore are generally •

greater;

it is particularly suitable for large-scale •

development near the major demand

centres represented by the major port

cities of the world, avoiding the need

for long transmission lines to get the

power to very large concentrations

of demand, as is so often the case

onshore; and

off shore makes sense in very densely •

populated coastal regions with high

property values, where there are big

constraints for onshore development.

More than 90% of the world’s off shore wind

power is currently installed off northern

Europe, in the North, Baltic and Irish Seas,

and the English Channel. Most of the rest

is accounted for by two ‘demonstration’

projects off China’s east coast. Off shore wind

is an essential component of Europe’s target

to source 20% of fi nal energy consumption

from renewables, and China has set itself a

target of 30 GW of installations off its coast

by 2020.

GWEC notes that it’s an exciting new tech-

nology and a new business, and govern-

ments and companies in Japan, Korea, the

US, Canada and even India have shown

great enthusiasm. By 2020 GWEC believes it

will have a much better picture of off shore

wind’s long term prospects outside of

northern Europe and China by 2020.

Currently, almost 6 GW1 of off shore wind

capacity is under construction in Europe,

17 GW has been consented, and there are

plans for a further 114 GW. It is expected

that during this decade, off shore wind

power capacity in Europe will grow ten-

fold. The European Wind Energy Association

(EWEA) estimates that by 2020, 40 GW of

off shore wind power will produce 148 TWh

annually, meeting over 4% of the EU’s total

electricity demand.

In terms of cumulative installed off shore

capacity Siemens (53%) and Vestas (36%)

have the largest shares in the European

market, followed by Repower (5%). The vast

majority (around 80%) of installed off shore

capacity was developed and is owned by

utilities. DONG, Vattenfall and E.On together

have around 53% of the market. The Belgian

Belwind consortium remains the largest

independent off shore developer in Europe.

The fi rst phase of their Bligh Bank project

was successfully completed in 2010, and the

second phase is under construction.

The UK maintains its position as world

leader in off shore wind. At the end of

2011, the country’s off shore wind power

totalled more than 2000 MW. The UK is

expected to install a total of 8 GW by

2016, and a further 10 GW by 2020. In fact,

the UK already gets close to 2% of its net

electricity consumption from off shore wind,

and this is set to grow to 17-20% in ten

years’ time. ■

Further information

GWEC; www.gwec.net

Cumulative wind energy market

forecast by region, 2012-2016.

(Source: GWEC.)

Global offshore 2011 and cumulative installed capacity.

Country 2011(MW)

Cumulative Total (MW)

Belgium 0 195.0

Denmark 3.6 857.28

Finland 0 26.3

Germany 108.3 200.3

Ireland 0 25.2

Netherlands 0 246.8

Norway 0 2.3

Portugal 2.0 2.0

Sweden 0 163.7

UK 752.4 2093.7

China 99.3 258.4

Japan 0 25.0

Total 965.6 4,096

REPL_2012_04_GWEC feature 33 25-07-12 12:04:53