wind power ithaca

Wind Power Ithaca

An Analysis of the Ithaca Wind Resource

Tanya Cabrito

Christopher CarterChristopher Carter

Meagan Mnich

Andrew Schoen

Alexandra Rieger

1

Cathles

Text Box

See notes on slides at end

Wind Power Ithaca: Table of Contents

1. Wind Resource 2. Technology

T bia. Turbinesb. Farm Layoutc. Storaged Transmissiond. Transmission

3. Land Usea. Regulationb Incentiveb. Incentivec. Black Oak Ex.d. Construction Plan

4. Issues5. Economic Analysis6. World Scale-Up

2

Map of Wind Resources of the UShttp://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp

3

Current/Proposed Wind Farmshttp://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_resource_maps.asp?stateab=ny

Current and Proposed Wind Farms

New York (at the end of 2009) had anof 2009) had an existing wind capacity of 1,274 MW.

Total electricity generation by wind power: 2,259 GwH.p ,

1.67% of state electricity generation in 2009 from windin 2009 from wind.

4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_States

Zooming in on Ithacahttp://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_resource_maps.asp?stateab=ny

Wind Resource by Location

Potential Site

Potential Site

5

Current Wind Technologyhttp://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/20_percent_wind_2.pdf

A turbine will start producing power at speeds of 5.36 m/s and produce max output at 12.51-13.41 m/s.

Technical Overview

Areas in Tompkins county have average wind speeds of 6.5 m/s-but areas in Seneca County have an average wind speed of 6.5-7 m/s

Putting wind turbines there would be advantageous since a 10% increase in wind speed causes a 33% increase in energy output.

6

Farming with wind turbineshttp://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_resource_maps.asp?stateab=ny

Wind turbines allow the land to be farmed and produce energy at the same time providing tremendoussame time, providing tremendous economic benefit to farmers (approx $5,000-$10,000 annual lease payment per turbine).y )

Wind turbines and access roads occupy less than 3% of the area on the ground of a typical wind farmthe ground of a typical wind farm (Horizon Wind Energy)

"I didn't really expect them to come all the way out here in northern Iowaall the way out here in northern Iowa to start a wind farm. But this is really great. Now we grow corn on the ground and generate power in the

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air—all on the same piece of property." —Delbert Watson, farmer near Clear Lake, Iowa.

http://www.horizonwind.com/about/landowners/printerfriendly.aspx

GE 1.5 MW Turbinehttp://www.gepower.com/prod_serv/products/wind_turbines/en/downloads/GEA14954C15-MW-Broch.pdf

Tower Height: 80m

Blade Length: 41m

P= 500kw/turbine

Total Farm= 250MW/.5MW=

500 Turbines

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Turbine Spacinghttp://www.powernaturally.org/programs/wind/toolkit/13_windpowerproject.pdf

For 500 turbines (5 rows), need 20,000 acres (15 miles x 2 miles)

For 10 rows, need 22,000 acres (7.5 miles x 4.5 miles)

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Farm Layout

Farm Layout

10

Storage Optionshttp://www.shpegs.org/cawegs.html

• Compressed Air - Uses electricity to compress air (usually stored in an old mine or some other kind of geological feature). Geological have assessed salt mines around Tompkins county as possible compressed air plant sites.

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Potential CAES SitesSource: http://www.nyserda.org/publications/10_09_compress_air_energy_storage.pdf

W t N Y k hWestern New York has:• Approx. 228 million cubic feet of underground storage capacity (equivalent

to approx. 3 GW) across 24 depleted natural gas fields and salt caverns.

P t ti l Sit T /C t CAES C it (MW)

Potential CAES Sites:

Potential Site Town/County CAES Capacity (MW)Avoca Storage Cavern Steuben County UnknownMorton Salt - Silver Springs Field Silver Springs, Wyoming County UnknownCargill Watkins Glen Plant Watkins Glen, Schuyler County Unknown

St. Lawrence Zinc Mine Fowler, St. Lawrence County 360yMorton Salt - Himrod Himrod, Yates County UnknownCargill Deicing Technology Cayuga Lansing, Tompkins County Unknown

Retsof Salt Mine York, Livingston County Unknown

Republic Steel Iron Mines Essex and Clinton County Unknown

C C CLyon Mtn Iron Mine Chateauguy, Clinton County Unknown

Wingdale Quarry Dover, Dutchess County Unknown

• Competition with natural gas storage

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• Competition with natural gas storage

Mines in New York

13

CAES SitesSource: http://documents.dps.state.ny.us/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId={2E0201D2-1B59-445D-8F56-02D93ACAA6BF}

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Connecting to the Gridhttp://www.dps.state.ny.us/06m0878/06m0878_Constraints-1.pdf

Electricity Transmission: National Grid owns and operates an electricity transmission system of y yapproximately 8,600 miles spanning upstate New York

• Low end cost estimate for materials used in line construction is $3,000 per kilometer

15

Projected Grid Expansion for Wind Power

16

Town and county governments legislate land ordinances permitting turbine

Land Use Authorization Procedures

installation and deciding issues such as zoning, permits, overlays, and the tax category for land. Land leases and easements are negotiated by land owners and the project sponsor.Wind Energy Model Ordinance Options http://www.powernaturally.org/programs/wind/toolkit/2_windenergymodel.pdf

The NYS DEC State Environmental Quality Review includes: operational noise levels, bird and bat impacts; construction impacts on forests, grasslands, wetlands, sensitive ecosystems; decommission procedureshttp://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/66494.htmlWind Energy Toolkit http://www.powernaturally.org/programs/wind/Wind%20Energy%20Toolkit.pdf

For construction or alternation of structures greater than 200 ft., or within 10-20,000 ft. of an airport, Notice must be filed and approved by the FAA not to cause obstruction hazards or adverse physical or electromagnetic interferencecause obstruction hazards, or adverse physical or electromagnetic interference upon navigable airspace or air navigation facilities. The FAA may require obstruction marking and lighting be installed, or the height modified.https://oeaaa.faa.gov/oeaaa/external/portal.jsphttp://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgAdvisoryCircular.nsf/0/b993dcdfc37fcdc486257251005c4e21/$FILE/AC70 7460 1K pdf0_7460_1K.pdf

Other reviews may apply: State Historic Preservation and Park (visual/ archaeological impact); Dept. of Agriculture and Markets (impact on farming operations); NYS Public Service Commission; other “interested agencies”

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depending on location.http://www.powernaturally.org/publications/largewindpresentation.pdfThe Role of Government Agencies in the Approval Process http://www.powernaturally.org/Programs/Wind/toolkit/16_rolegovernmentagencies.pdf

L i l d i th h i

Land Use: Deal structure and incentivesDeal Structure Patterns

• Leasing land is more common than purchasing• High initial outlay = low NPV• Existing operations continue around turbines• Families prefer to keep land, benefit from the lease incomeWind Energy Toolkit gy

http://www.powernaturally.org/programs/wind/Wind%20Energy%20Toolkit.pdf

• No evidence of an effect on surrounding property valueshttp://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/filter_detail.asp?itemid=2610&pga=ne_forum

• Opposition to wind farms exists but is the minority: local stakeholders with specific issues about safety, aesthetics, property line setback distance, etc.http://www.windaction.org/http://www.tompkinshosting.com/tompkinsweekly/TompkinsWeekly080128.pdfp p g p y p y p

Government Incentives• Approved utility scale wind power systems are eligible for property tax credits:

• Exempt from increase in taxation for 15 years due to increase in property value assessment arising from wind power installation

• Exemption covers Municipal and School District taxes onlyhttp://www.orps.state.ny.us/assessor/manuals/vol4/part1/section4.01/sec487.htmhttp://www.orps.state.ny.us/assessor/manuals/vol4/part1/section4.01/sec487.htm

• Note: Smaller operations (< 600 kW) that meet eligibility and certification criteria

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p ( ) g ybenefit from additional NYSERDA cash/loan incentives and warranteeshttp://www.powernaturally.com/Programs/Wind/incentives.asp?i=8

Land Use Example: Enfield“Utility Scale Wind Energy Conversion Systems”

• Law adopted by The Town Board of Enfield to establish regulations for USWECS

Local Law Overviewy gy y

• USWECS use allowed by Special Permits for each area to be developed

• Environmental assessment procedures required

• Town Board sets the level of liability insurance required• Town Board sets the level of liability insurance requiredhttp://www.theithacajournal.com/assets/pdf/AF942541214.PDF

Black Oak Wind Farm• 20 250’ turbines, 30-50 megawatt/yr production; $105-

120M to build

• Environmental assessment process now starting

• To include a renewable energy education and researchTo include a renewable energy education and research component

• Current challenge is finding a sponsor to provide capital for the initial investment

19

p

http://www.ccbconstructiononline.com/enfieldenergy/questions.htmhttp://www.tompkins-co.org/news/detail.aspx?ContentID=1409

Land Use Changes

Direct land impacts:– Permanent service road– Turbine Pad– Service Center– Temporary construction

A t di t l dAverage permanent direct land impact=0.3 ha/MW

79% of direct land impact from roads, 10% from turbines, 6% station, etc.

Average temporary land impact=0.7 ha/MW

For 350 MW, total permanent land impact is approx = 105 ha=260 acres of land lost.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45834.pdf

of land lost.

Phased Construction/Developer

Due to the magnitude of this project, phased construction will likely be feasible.

5 phases, modeled after the Maple Ridge Wind Farm (75 NE of Syracuse)

Maple Ridge had 2 phases, but was only installed approximately 195 turbines.– First phase: 140 turbines, 231 MW. Construction begins May 2005, production in January p , g y , p y

2006.– Phase 2: 55 turbines, 90 MW, construction in Spring 2006, production in late 2006.

Phase 1: 140 turbines

Phases 2-5: 90 turbines each.

Timescale: approx 5 years.

Noise

This turbine is rated to emit noise of 50-60 Hz but has been further insulated in order to reduce noise.

This is similar to the noise of a low hum and is similar to the noise emitted by AC transformers.

The noise from the blowing wind may drown out noise of turbines when farther than 1,000 feet away.

At 1,000 feet away, environmental assessments predict that noise levels will be between 45 and 50 decibels.

30 decibels is as loud as a soft whisper, 40 decibels compares to the noise in a library.

www.ithaca.edu/faculty/.../Renewable_Energy_Wind_Lecture.ppthttp://www.globalenergytimes.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/5a5f5_1332-measuring-wind-turbine-noise.jpg

Bird Impacts

Wind turbine deaths caused by collision with wind turbines were found to be a very small fraction of anthropogenic bird deaths (National Research Council).

Approximately 3 out of every 100,000 bird d thl (0 003%) i 2003deathls (0.003%) in 2003.

A study of bird fatalities from Maple Ridge Wind Farm (Lake Ontario) found that increases were found during migrationincreases were found during migration periods.

Compared to fatality rates of other electrical power towers, turbines are p ,found to kill far fewer birds.

Over time, increased technologies and techniques to steer birds away has

http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/maple_ridge_report_2006_final.pdfhttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2007/05/wind-turbines-not-a-threat-to-u-s-bird-population-says-study-48393

decreased mortality.

Agricultural Lands and Transmission Line ConstructionSource: http://psc.wi.gov/thelibrary/publications/electric/electric10.pdf

Pole placement on farm fields can:

•Create problems for turning field machinery and maintaining efficient fieldwork patterns

•Create opportunities for weed encroachment

•Compact soils and damage drain tiles

•Result in safety hazards due to pole and guy wire placement

•Hinder or prevent aerial activities by planes or helicopters

•Interfere with moving irrigation equipment

•Hinder future consolidation of farm fields or subdividing land for residential development

•Placement of transmission lines along field edges or between fields where windbreaks have been planted can increase erosion of soils if the windbreaks must be removed

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Mitigation of Line Construction Damage

C it t hi d i /l t• Community partnership on design/layout

• Markers can be installed above the conductors.

• Single poles in strategic locations (fences, roads, etc.)

• Field crossings:• Longer spans• Longer spans• Orientation along plow pattern

• Outside crop or hay land: • Guy wires

• Compaction mitigation by chisel plow

• Windbreak removal• Selectively trimming vegetation• Replanting lower-growing trees and brushes beneath the line • Creating a new windbreak elsewhere

25

Economic Analysis of Ithaca Wind PowerSummary results of a thorough financial analysis which included revenues, expenses, market projections, and financing scenarios.

Historical and Projected Electricity Wholesale Prices

$0 053 $0 056 $0.058 $0.061 $0.063

$0 06

$0.07

$0.045 $0.047 $0.049 $0.051 $0.053 $0.056

$0.02

$0.03

$0.04

$0.05

$0.06

$0.00

$0.01

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Electricity Price Projections $/kWh

7.34%6 52% 5 83% 5 71%

8.95%

8%

10%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital – Comparable Companies Analysis

6.52% 5.83% 5.71%

5.12%6.04%

2%

4%

6%

26

0%Edison International Exelon Corp American Electric

Power Co.FirstEnergy Corp PG & E Corp BP Plc Exxon Mobil

WACC

Economic Analysis of Ithaca Wind PowerSummary results of a thorough financial model which includes revenues, expenses, market projections, financing scenarios and two operating cases: a) pre-grid-tie storage solution; b) direct grid-tie (no storage)

Case 1 – NPV by Lifespan Case 2 – NPV by Lifespan (With Storage)

$32.74

$250.80

$100

$200

$300

$62.49

$0

$100

10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 25 Years

Net Present Value by Operational Life (Millions)

-$174.80-$200

-$100

$010 Years 15 Years 20 Years 25 Years

$299 20

-$123.42

-$300

-$200

-$100


-$423.47-$500

-$400

-$300

-$505.91

-$299.20

$600

-$500

-$400

According to data from National Wind the average life of Even with cost intensive storage the Ithaca wind farm

Net Present Value by Operational Life (Millions)Linear (Net Present Value by Operational Life …

-$600Net Present Value by Operational Life …

According to data from National Wind, the average life of wind turbines is 25 years

NPV is clearly positive, meaning investment is profitable even considering opportunity cost (WACC)

27

Even with cost intensive storage, the Ithaca wind farm yields a significant and positive NPV


Case 1 – NPV to Investment Profitability Ratio

0.3x 0.4x

0.0x

NM

NM

0.0x

0.1x

0.2x

0.3x


NM

NM

NM

NM

NM

NM

NM

Net Present Value Multiple of Construction Cost by Operational Life

Case 2 – NPV to Investment Profitability Ratio (With Storage) The ratio of NPV to investment indicates the number of times an investor will make back their investment

0.1x

0 0

0.1x

0.2x

back their investment within a given time period

NM

NM

NM

NM

NM

NM

0.0x 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 25 Years

28

NM NM

NM

NM

Net Present Value Multiple of Construction Cost by Operational Life


Case 1 – IRR and Risk Free Rate

8.09%8 00%

10.00%

2.82%

6.30%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

-5.07%-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00% 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 25 Years

IRR Risk Free Rate (US Treasury)

Case 2 – IRR and Risk Free Rate (With Storage)

4.37%

6.42%

2 94%3.98% 4.08% 4.18%

4 00%

6.00%

8.00%

0.51%

2.94%

%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%


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-8.04%-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

IRR Risk Free Rate (US Treasury)

Economic Analysis of Ithaca Wind PowerSummary results of a thorough financial model which includes revenues, expenses, market projections,

$2 500

financing scenarios and two operating cases: a) pre-grid-tie storage solution; b) direct grid-tie (no storage)

Case 1 – Break Even analysis of NPV by Electricity Price

$91$410

$729$1,048

$1,366$1,685

$2,004

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

-$865-$546

-$227

$91

-$1,500

-$1,000

-$500

$0$0.01/kWh $0.02/kWh $0.03/kWh $0.04/kWh $0.05/kWh $0.06/kWh $0.07/kWh $0.08/kWh $0.09/kWh $0.1/kWh

Net Present Value by Electricity Price (Millions $)

Case 1 – Break Even analysis of NPV by Electricity Price (With Storage)

$1 032$1,308

$1,585$1,500

$2,000

$201$478

$755$1,032

-$500

$0

$500

$1,000

$0.01/kWh $0.02/kWh $0.03/kWh $0.04/kWh $0.05/kWh $0.06/kWh $0.07/kWh $0.08/kWh $0.09/kWh $0.1/kWh

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-$907-$630

-$353 -$76

-$1,500

-$1,000

Net Present Value by Electricity Price (Millions $)

Global Scale-Uphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power; http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20080304/3t_global_wind_540x420.jpg

CCurrent Production = 160 GW

Electrical Energy Consumption = p1.7 TW

Need to Make-U 1 54 TWUp = 1.54 TW

Viable Capacity = 72 TW

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Global Scale-Up Cont.- Layouthttp://geology.com/articles/night-satellite/satellite-view-of-earth-at-night-750.jpg;https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2060.html

Average Coastal Wind Speed = 10 m/sSpeed = 10 m/s

# of Turbines Required = q1,100,000

Coastal Area Needed (3Needed (3 rows) = 56,000 miles long; 1 milelong; 1 mile wide

• Total World Coastline= 220,000 miles (25 5% f t t l l t th

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(25.5% of total or equal to the coastline of the US and EU)

Global Scale-Up Cont.- Materials

# of Turbines Required = 1 100 000# of Turbines Required 1,100,000

Material MM Tons/Total Farm % of World ConsumptionMaterial MM Tons/Total Farm % of World Consumption

Steel 146.8 11

Aluminum 2 5 4Aluminum 2.5 4

Copper 8.7 11

Concrete 1.6 0.1

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Fiberglass 20.2 470

Questions and Comments?

34

Additional References

http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_States

http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/20_percent_wind_2.pdf

http://www.horizonwind.com/about/landowners/printerfriendly.aspx

www.ithaca.edu/faculty/.../Renewable_Energy_Wind_Lecture.ppt

http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/maple_ridge_report_2006_final.pdf

http://www renewableenergyworld com/rea/news/article/2007/05/wind turbines not a threat to u s birdhttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2007/05/wind-turbines-not-a-threat-to-u-s-bird-population-says-study-48393

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45834.pdf

http://www horizonwind com/projects/whatwevedone/mapleridge/http://www.horizonwind.com/projects/whatwevedone/mapleridge/

Other Turbine Technical Data

Wind Power Ithaca Slide Show 2010 notes

#12 According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Western New York has approx. 228 million cubic feet of underground storage capacity (equivalent to approx. 3 GW) across 24 depleted natural gas fields and salt caverns.

A Compressed Air Energy Storage Engineering and Economic Study performed in 2009 identified these sites as possible CAES sites; however and extended review of these sites indicate that these sites may also be desirable for natural gas storage. Further study is required to assess the suitability of these sites for CAES.

In order to be considered viable CAES facilities need at least three basic elements. First, these facilities need a confined space (such as a salt cavern) that can securely store a sufficient volume of compressed air. Second, the location must have access to natural gas transmission in order to power the turbine. Finally, the site must have access to electric transmission so that the power generated can be delivered to the grid.

#22 www.ithaca.edu/faculty/.../Renewable_Energy_Wind_Lecture.ppt

#24 http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp‐content/uploads/2010/11/teas‐transmission.jpg

#25

• Work with agricultural landowners to determine optimal pole heights, pole locations

• In areas where aerial spraying and seeding are used, pole height can be minimized and markers can be installed above the conductors.

• Use single‐pole structures and placing the line along fence lines or adjacent to roads

• If crossing a field, larger longer spans structures can be used. If the structure is not single‐pole, it can be oriented with the plowing pattern.

• Guy wires can be kept outside crop or hay land and have highly visible shield guards.

• If compaction has occurred, affected soils can be chisel plowed over as needed to break up compacted layers.

Trimming the windbreak vegetation selectively, replanting lower‐growing trees and brushes beneath the line, or creating a new windbreak elsewhere can lessen the effects of windbreak removal.

#26 Assumed a 0.045 current wholesale price of electricity based solely on conversation with Cathles et. al on November 29th, 2010. Projections using historical growth rate calculated in financial model

#33 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steel_production_by_country

http://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/images/global.jpg

http://www.usw.ca/program/adminlinks/docs//Aluminum‐2.pdf

http://www.cement.org/basics/concretebasics_lessonone.asp

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0147489/Analysis‐of‐China‐Fiberglass‐Industry.html

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