Mary J. HutzlerDistinguished Senior Fellow

Institute for Energy ResearchJune 7, 2010

Hmmmm. Well, the attached cartoon is in line with your latter thesis, Tom....

Hmmmm. Well, the attached cartoon is in line with your latter thesis, Tom....

Late 19th Century Late 20th Century

Wind Power: Energy Future or Past?

Renewable to Carbon-energy Era: U.S. (Quads)

40 –

30 –

20 –

10 –

0

1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Wood

Coal

Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear Power

Natural Gas

Renewable Energy Era

Carbon-energy Era

Petroleum

Represents a small portion of our energy requirements

Intermittent technology Heavily subsidized: production tax credit

of 2.1 cents per kilowatt hour through 2012

Spain: for every megawatt of wind installed, 4.27 jobs lost elsewhere in the economy

Denmark: exports wind power to Norway, Sweden, and Germany

Large land mass requirements Energy resource, not a capacity resource Cannot be stored

5

WIND

Capital Costs of Generating Technologies in 2009 (2008 dollars/kilowatt)

Source: Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010, Table 8.2

Estimated Levelized Cost of New Electric Generating Technologies in 2016($2008/megawatt hour)

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html

Renewable Generation, 2009 and 2035 (billion kilowatt hours)

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010, Table A.16

Load highWind lowL

Load High,Wind Low

Load Low,

Load Low,Wind High

Impact of Wind on Generation Stack

Coal Plants are Cycled as Wind Generation Increases in ERCOT (Nov. 5-12, 2008)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Under Several Cycling Scenarios

Source: Master Resource, (http://www.masterresource.org/2010/02/wind-integration-incremental-emissions-from-back-up-generation-cycling-part-v-calculator-update/#comments

Hmmmm. Well, the attached cartoon is in line with your latter thesis, Tom....

Hmmmm. Well, the attached cartoon is in line with your latter thesis, Tom....