winning the future with gmos
TRANSCRIPT
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Winning the Future with Genetically Modified Crops
Sameer Khanal
hobbyfarmblog.com
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World’s farmland under GM crops
3.7 billion acres Arable land worldwide
376 million acres
In top five countries
$15 BNGlobal value of GM seed
in 2012
44 million acresRest of the world
420 millionacresof GM crops
worldwide
Isaaa.org, nature.com
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The global picture (2012)
Isaaa.org, nature.com
Top 5 GM-crop producers
Other GM-crop producers
CanadaUSA
Brazil
Argentina
India
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Soybean Cotton Corn Canola0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
81%
81%
35%
30%
Major GM crops of the world
Mill
ion
acre
sConventional
GM
Isaaa.org, nature.com
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GM crops are growing
1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
50
100
150
200
250
Mill
ion
acre
s
Herbicide tolerance
Herbicide tolerance + Insect resistance(Stacked)
Insect resistance
Year Isaaa.org, nature.com
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Farmers like GM cropsGM soybean adoption in the US
1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
20
40
60
80
100 Soybean
georgiamagazine.com , usda.gov
Prop
ortio
n of
tota
l cul
tivat
ed a
rea
Year
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Farmers like GM cropsGM cotton adoption in the US
1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
20
40
60
80
100 SoybeanCotton
nature.com, usda.gov
Prop
ortio
n of
tota
l cul
tivat
ed a
rea
Year
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Farmers like GM cropsGM corn adoption in the US
1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
20
40
60
80
100 SoybeanCottonCorn
ishratnazir.com, usda.gov
Prop
ortio
n of
tota
l cul
tivat
ed a
rea
Year
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Increase in yield from GM
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bt
Non-Bt
0
900
720
540
360
180
3,080
1,080
Fibe
r yie
ld
(lbs/
acre
)
Hake, 2013
GM cotton adoption increased yield
GM cotton introduction
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Farmers profit from GM crops2004 increase in farm income from GM crops
(US $ million)
Soybean Maize Cotton Canola Total0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Incr
ease
in fa
rm in
com
e
GM crop Brooks and Barfoot, 2005
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Farmers profit from GM crops1996-2004 increase in farm income from GM crops
(US $ million)
Incr
ease
in fa
rm in
com
e
GM crop Brooks and Barfoot, 2005
Soybean Maize Cotton Canola Total0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
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Yield ceiling is a fact!
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Yiel
d (lb
/acr
e)
Non-GM Corn yield in France and Italy (in thousand pounds)
2
4
6
8
10
12
ItalyFrance
Troyer,2006; epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
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Yield ceiling, not yet!
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Yiel
d (lb
/acr
e)
Corn yield in the USA (in thousand pounds)
2
4
6
8
10
12
US
USDA.gov; Troyer,2006; epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
ItalyFrance
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Why against GM crops?
climatevoices.files.wordpress.com1.bp.blogspot.com,independent.co.uk,
Protests
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GM controversies
Ecological effects
Séralini et al., 2012, fineartamerica.com
Health risks
Super weeds
Biodiversity loss
projects.nfstc.org, anbg.gov.au, crops.org,
Messing up with genetics
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Plant improvement methods
Traditional breeding
Less likely More likelyUnintended genetic consequences
Genetic consequences of breeding
nap.edu, nunhems.com
Crossing
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Plant improvement methods
Traditional breeding
Tissue culture
Less likely More likelyUnintended genetic consequences
Genetic consequences of breeding
nap.edu, technologyofplanttissueculture.blogspot.com
Tissue culture
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Plant improvement methods
Traditional breeding
Tissue culture
Genetic modification
Less likely More likelyUnintended genetic consequences
Genetic consequences of breeding
nap.edu, earthtimes.org
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Plant improvement methods
Traditional breeding
Tissue culture
Genetic modification
Induced mutation
Less likely More likelyUnintended genetic consequences
Genetic consequences of breeding
nap.edu, scienceisntfiction.blogspot.com
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People are fine with the mutants
whiskiesofscotland.com , bottlerocket.com ,texasweet.com , giordanofoods.com
Pasta durum wheatRio Star grapefruit
Golden promise barley
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Bt corn kills butterflies
Losey et al., 1999; fineartamerica.com; news.cornell.edu
Monarch butterfly Larva
Monarchs feed on weeds with Bt corn pollen
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Non-Bt
Bt
Bt does not kill butterflies
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Surv
ival
(%)
Survival of Bt or non-Bt pollen fed larvae
20
40
60
80
100
120
Stanley-Horn et al., 2001
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Time (days)
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GM corn “wiped out the bees”
mygeni.org
?
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GM not linked to colony collapse
scientificbeekeeping.com; gardenworld.in; Hendriksma et al., 2011
Heliconiapollen(toxic)
Non Bt pollen
Bt pollenBee larvae thrive well on Bt pollen
100
80
60
40
20
06 7 8 9 10 11
Time (days)
Surv
ival
(%)
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Does Bt affect off-target?Study: cotton, corn, and potato
jaqstone.blogspot.com www.123rf.com visualphotos.comWelfenbarger et al., 2008
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Does Bt affect off-target?
Off-target organisms
ent.iastate.edu, plantwise.org, firstlook.pnas.org, energyskeptic.com
Target insects
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Does Bt affect off-target?Result: No difference in effect between Bt or non-Bt
Bt NonBtblog.daum.netWelfenbarger et al., 2008,
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Non-BtBt
Bt does not affect off-target
I instar II instar III instar IV instar New-born
012345678
Lozzia et al. 1998; chonps.org
Deve
lopm
enta
l tim
e (d
ays)
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV New-born
Aphids feeding on Bt corn
Aphids
Preborn stages
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Profits from Bt corn
Profit calculation:
1 bushel = $6
US corn = 96 million acres annually
Profit = 96 x 6 = 576 million/yearusda.gov, genuity.com
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GM-crops and “super-weeds”Glyphosate resistant weed
www.nature.com
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How herbicide resistance evolve?Plants evolve
• Naturally and under human influence
arkansasagnews.uark.edu, pioneer.com
Herbicide applicationResistant
weed
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Herbicide resistant weeds
After GM:11.5 cases/year
Before GM: 13 cases/year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
Unique cases of herbicide resistant weedsin the world
400
350300
250200150
100
Uni
que
case
s
Heap, 2013, weedcontrolfreaks.com
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Smart ways to combat “super weeds”
• Diversified weed management• Crop rotation
Corn Soybean
kellysluckyyou.com, infiniteunknown.net
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Smart ways to combat “super weeds”
• Diversified weed management• Herbicides with different modes of action
rightinginjustice.com, foginfo.org
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Smart ways to combat “super weeds”
• Diversified weed management• Traditional strategies
extension.umn.edu, kress-landtechnik.de
Mechanical weeding Deep tillage
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Herbicide-tolerant crops
Advantages• Easier weed management
motherjones.com karensgarden.net
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Herbicide-tolerant crops
Advantages• Less frequent application
-200
-150
-100
-50
0Q
uanti
tySoybean Corn Cotton
Reduced herbicide chemicals1996-2011 (in million pounds)
natureform.com , Brookes and Barefoot, 2013
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Herbicide-tolerant crops
Advantages• Less frequent application• Relatively safe herbicides
0
4
8
12
16
Soybean Corn Cotton
Positive environmental impactEnvironmental Impact Quotient (EIQ)
Impa
ct (E
IQ)
natureform.com , Brookes and Barefoot, 2013
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GM corn causes tumors
Séralini et al., 2012
Séraline’s 2012 paper
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GM corn as foodWe experienced GM for over a decade
cache.boston.com, cute-n-tiny.com, foodprocessing-technology.com, izifunny.com, bloggingfoodforthought.blogspot.com
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GM corn does not cause cancerEurope refutes Séraline’s paper
Countries: Belgium Denmark France Italy Netherlands Germany
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Are GM crops threat to biodiversity?
4photos.net , myrighttosafefood.blogspot.com
Bt eggplant debate
Monoculture leads to varietal erosion
Eggplant diversity Eggplant
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Varietal diversity is increasingEggplant varieties in the US:
1981 and 2004
0
25
50
75
100
125
1981 2004Year
No.
of v
arie
ties
Heald and Chapman, 2011
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GM does not erode varietal diversity Field corn varieties in the US:
1981 and 2004
1981 2004Year
No.
of v
arie
ties
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Heald and Chapman, 2011
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A book on science?
• Misrepresentation
• Hearsays
• False claims
• Cherry picking poor science
• Propaganda Smith, 2007infowarsshop.com,
A movie on science?
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Summary
• The world is accepting and adopting GM crops
• Science is winning against propaganda
• GM crops are better than non-GM conventional systems
• GM crops are the future of agriculture
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Thank youharvest-pr.com