#winningdespiteadversity: a presentation to the florida state university college of business
TRANSCRIPT
© 2011, Gregory Collier. All Rights Reserved. Presented by Gregory Collier
Gregory Collier and Collier Capital Advisors make no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained herein for any purpose. Recommendations, information, and forecasts, including trading and investment techniques mentioned in our articles, presentations, blogs or websites, cannot guarantee future accuracy or results. Greg Collier and Collier Capital Advisors will not be liable for any decision you make, or action you take based upon reliance on any information contained herein.
2
Gregory Collier Professional Investor, Analyst, and Entrepreneur
Florida State University, B.S., Finance, 1990 Manhattan College, M.B.A., Finance, 1999
I’ve worked for
I’ve worked for
served as consultant and/or advised
6
served as consultant and/or advised
7
I’ve held many roles and titles
in many departments and divisions
I’ve faced much adversity
and I’ve had some success
12
440% realized gain* in 26 days
*Net of Commission; not a typical return
13
14
15
Gregory Collier
If someone tells you that you can’t do something
17
. . .don’t believe them
18
If I listened to people, or their non-constructive criticism
19
. . .I would not be where I am today
20
21
and today life is good
22
but I wasn’t smiling when I graduated in 1990
23
24
25
October 15, 1990 October 13, 2008
Bad Worse
26
New York City South Florida
27
VP @ Citigroup Consultant in Miami
28
I Had my 3rd emergency surgery
in 3 years
29
My consulting assignment ended
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Professional Investor
37
38
Short-term trading
Long-term investing
39
Short-term trading
Long-term investing
Equities, ADRs, and ETFs
40
Short-term trading
Long-term investing
Equities, ADRs, and ETFs
Bonds, Bond Funds
Strategies
41
Global Macro Long/Short
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
42
Hedge risks with options
Not an easy way to make money, otherwise everyone could do it
43
In my opinion, the key factor in being a successful trader or investor is managing risks
44
Before looking at individual securities . . .
I develop an asset allocation strategy
45
Fundamental Analysis
My top considerations
• FORWARD Earnings Yield
• Interest rates (current and expected)
• Inflation (current and expected)
46
Earnings Yield ≠ Forward Earnings Yield
47
Earnings Yield
EY* = (EPS/Stock Price) x 100
Current EPS
Current Stock Price
48
*Equals the reciprocal of the PE ratio: (1 / PE Ratio) x 100
Forward Earnings Yield
FEY = (EPS1 / Average Stock Price) x 100
Anticipated EPS (x)day weighted Moving Average Price
x = 50, 200, etc.
49
Forward Earnings Yield
Gives a basis to
• Compare equities vs fixed income
• Assess dividend safety
• Forecast earnings growth rates
• Determine inherent value
50
My top strategies
• Gap Trading
• Pivot Points: playing support & resistance levels
51
Global Macro Strategy
Supersedes all other strategies
Take a global view & use economic theory to make decisions
52
53
Collier Capital Advisors is an independent registered investment advisory firm
54
Serve the needs of Businesses Institutional Investors and Private Clients
In the areas of wealth management customized market analysis idea generation and risk management
55
Goal is to help all Americans participate in the capital markets, and navigate the markets with knowledge, skill, and appropriate risk management
56
fee only charge by the hour
no custody of client assets
advice only
Do not sell or market financial
products
How did I get to where I am now?
57
58
59
60
61
FSU graduates can compete with
Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere. . .
College Rankings
I’ve worked for and with graduates from among the world’s Top Ranked Schools
62
. . .many are Brilliant
63
but the intelligence of some is highly Overrated
64
65
FSU Graduates
Don’t settle for mediocrity. . .
. . .there is no level of achievement beyond your capability
66
Planning is essential for success
. . .I started with a personal achievement plan
67
you must have
confidence
68
• No easy way to create
• Easy to destroy
69
Education
70
Planning Confidence
71
72
“Embrace change, even when the change slaps you in the face”
-Advice of the Word’s Oldest
Man
Source: The Associated Press,
http://tinyurl.com/4yoha8z
73
74
Uncertainty will always exist
75
Statistical analysis can help in making decisions, but the decisions made will not always be correct due to uncertainty
76
I Challenged Myself
77
If I do what others are capable of doing, but not willing to do, I will always be a winner
78
Positive Mental Attitude
79
I believed if I could maintain my focus, I was capable of overcoming any obstacle I encountered
80
Overcome Fears
81
"If fear dominates your thoughts, you're not going to see opportunities that are available to you."
How I Trade Options
- Jon "Dr. J." Najarian
82
Embrace change
83
Challenge yourself
Remain positive
Overcome fears
1
2
3
4
2008
I had a difficult recovery from surgery – I was very sick
84
I was unemployed at the worst time to be unemployed
85
I could not find a job in Florida
86
and job prospects in New York weren’t good
87
I was depressed
88
My Contacts
People were avoiding me - some people were intentionally working against me, including friends, former co-workers, and former bosses
89
Friends
Many friends wanted to see me fail – this hurt more than anything
90
Many friends wanted to see me fail – this hurt more than anything
So I ended many long-term friendships
91
Job Interviews: Some were vicious in nature
92
I was subjected to an extreme lack of professionalism
93
Bridges were burned
94
People criticized me for moving to Florida
95
People told me I was dumb to leave New York City
96
Some people found humor in the fact that I was sick & unemployed
97
I had far fewer friends and allies than I thought
98
99
100
101
102
103
“When you're playing against a stacked deck, compete even harder. Show the world how much you'll fight for the winner's circle. If you do, someday . . . the cards will be stacked in your favor.”
-Pat Riley
104
Work hard
105
Stay focused
Fight through adversity
1
2
3
106
2008
Chaos
107
I chose to increase my level of community service . . .
108
I chose to become more active in the political process
109
• Global capital markets tumbled
• People panicked
110
I started
trading in the short-term
111
and continued to
invest for the long-term
112
Because corporate America
does not control my destiny
113
114
115
116
117
118
I started a small business
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
Give back to your community
133
Have a political voice: VOTE
Build alliances
1
2
3
134
135
1st job post-graduation = Bus Boy
I took a 24 hour bus ride to Manhattan
The cheapest mode of travel, I was more interested in saving money, than personal comfort
136
Some decisions will impact your entire
life
137
138
Hired by a bank in customer service. . .
. . .job to start in 1 month
139
took a 2 week temporary job in the interim, as a Filing Clerk
140
took a 2 week temporary job in the interim, as a Filing Clerk
141
SALARY = $8 / hour
Minimum Wage = $4.25
Lots of paper cuts
“temp” job was on a Fixed Income trading floor
142
I was asked to stay beyond 2 weeks, so I turned down the higher paying job
143
Merger*
*Merged with Chemical Bank in 1991, acquiring the Chemical name
Great opportunity
to learn
144
Fixed Income
Where many of the high paying jobs on Wall Street are were
145
Fixed Income
There are more equity transactions on a daily basis. . .
146
. . .but the daily dollar value of Fixed Income transactions exceeds that of equities
147
Progress
• Within a short period of time, I was hired full time
• Within a year I was an operations manager, managing a confirmation unit
148
“Never let your present circumstances determine your future success”
Mark Maybery President & CEO, Exam Experts www.examexperts.com
149
Prepare for Tomorrow
Though I didn’t earn much on a NY scale, within 3 years I had saved 100% of my annual income (on a pre-tax basis)
150
Networking
• Not just about getting a job or promotion
• Can help you build alliances
• Can give you great ideas
151
152
1994
I met with a real-estate client of my mother
153
Fx Trader
The gentleman traded currencies from his home in London as a 2nd career
154
New Possibilities
155
Time Magazine: July 24, 1994
1994
I mapped out a plan to trade for a living, I needed:
1. Knowledge (most important)
2. Capital
156
1. Learn the trading strategies professionals use
2. Earn a MBA
3. Master trading technology
4. Retire from corporate America by 50
5. Trade as a 2nd career
6. Start some businesses that generate positive cash flow
157
158
• Tiny window of opportunity
• Usually requires a MBA from a top ranked school and/or a strong mathematical background, plus often knowing someone important
159
Trading for an Investment Bank
Trading for an Investment Bank
Many investment banks are continuing to down-size, some are closing proprietary trading desks altogether. . .
160
Hedge Funds
161
. . .sending many job inquiries to Hedge Funds and Private Equity firms for a limited number of opportunities
Key Experiences
163
•Operational experience
•Product knowledge &
•Staff management experience
Operations
164
•Program Trading desk
•Exposure to industry-wide committee work and
Operations & Trade Support
165
•Exposure to position management
•Functional design & testing of trading systems
Trade Support
166
•Exposure to full Software Development Life-Cycle (SDLC)
•Project management &
•Consulting
•Business analysis
Technology Development
•Automated testing tools
167
Sr. Business Analyst, Smith Barney -Retail E-Commerce Development -Prime Brokerage Systems
•Exposure to developing retail trading systems & hedge fund support systems
•Customized analysis, reporting, and presenting to Sr. Managers
•Personally created a monthly report for the vice-chairman of marketing
168
Vice President, Global Wealth Management Software Quality Assurance Management
-Private Bank -Prime Brokerage -Compliance -Investment Research -Stock Plans
•Developed, implemented and monitored methods to ensure quality
•Responsible for the project management process & I.T. governance
Graduate Business Degrees
169
I’m an MBA
Me too!
I’m a Master of Finance
#^%@!
“An MBA means nothing if you don’t go to Harvard or Yale”
-told to me by a Lehman Brothers Traders Assistant
170
“An MBA means nothing if you don’t go to Harvard or Yale”
-told to me by a Lehman Brothers Traders Assistant
Who lost his job when Lehman went bankrupt
171
Education has value
The Lehman Traders gave me a standing ovation when they found out I was pursuing a MBA part-time
172
The traders took me out for drinks and dinner to congratulate me
173
The Lehman Traders had MBAs from top 5 schools – none cared that I was not attending a top 5 school – they were proud I took such an important step
174
If you pursue graduate level education, I suggest you have realistic expectations of what you will get out it
175
For me the focus was acquiring knowledge, not the expectation of a higher paying job
176
For me the focus was acquiring knowledge, not the expectation of a higher paying job
Though higher compensation did come
177
Graduate business education in and of itself will not make you a stellar investor, great trader, good manager, good employee, guarantee a good job, or ensure entrepreneurial success
178
but it will improve your skill set
179
and with an improved skill set, you’re better prepared to capitalize on opportunities
180
181
440% realized gain* in 26 days
*Net of Commission; not a typical return
182
When opportunity stares you in the face, you can watch it pass you by, or you can capitalize
"Don't miss the time in your life to do extraordinary things. This is your time now.“
-Kasim Reed, Mayor of Atlanta
183
The Janitor’s Sons
• A book I’m authoring & self publishing
• Will distribute for free to at-risk youth
• My goal is to help youth who don’t believe in themselves, achieve to their level of capability
184
“Follow your dreams, don't listen to non-constructive criticism, don't live within parameters of mediocrity defined by others, and success will stare you right in the face: go grab it”
-Greg Collier
185
© 2011, Gregory Collier. All Rights Reserved. Presented by Gregory Collier
www.GregoryCollier.com www.Collier-Capital.com
[email protected] @GregoryCollier
www.slideshare.net/GregoryCo
References • Time Magazine
• Reuters
• The Associated Press
• CNBC.com
• StockedPhotos.com
• Boxedart.com
• Clipart.com
• Coloring-Pages-Kids.com
• sonofthesouth.net
• Posh24.com
• Thefatwhiteguy.com
• profi-forex.us
• The Farmington Observer
• Exam Experts
• Emptythebench.com
• Allaboutjazz.com
• louisvilleartdeco.com
• Bradley Collier’s massive toy collection
• Greg Collier’s personal photo collection
• Anyone I forgot is an unintentional oversight
187