winter outlook (2015-2016) oregon ams chapter 23 rd annual winter weather forecast conference...
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Winter Outlook (2015-2016)Winter Outlook (2015-2016)
Oregon AMS Chapter23rd Annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference
October 24, 2015
Oregon AMS Chapter23rd Annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference
October 24, 2015
Amanda BowenNational Weather ServicePortland, OR
Just tell us if it’s going to snow already
El Niño BackgroundEl Niño Background
• Translation: The Niño• Translation: The Niño
El Niño BackgroundEl Niño Background
• Translation: The Niño The boy• Translation: The Niño The boy
• Refers to baby Jesus Christ because pattern occurred around Christmas
El Niño BackgroundEl Niño Background
• Translation: The Niño The boy
• Named after the birth of Jesus Christ because pattern occurred around Christmas
• Noticed first by Peruvian fisherman
– Fun fact: Ceviche is the national food of Peru
• Translation: The Niño The boy
• Named after the birth of Jesus Christ because pattern occurred around Christmas
• Noticed first by Peruvian fisherman
– Fun fact: Ceviche is the national food of Peru
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Warmer than usualocean temperatures
Cooler than usualocean temperatures
USA USAPacific Ocean Pacific Ocean
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal
MUCH warmer than usual
Australia
Mexico
(°C)
(°C) (°C)
NeutralLa Niña El NiñoStrong El Niño
StrongEl Niño
Climate Model PredictionsClimate Model Predictions
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
El Niño: Winter Weather Patterns
Pacific NW:
Average Temperature
Precipitation
Pacific NW:
Average Temperature
Precipitation
El Niño: Winter Weather Trends
El Niño: Winter Weather Trends
ENSO Historical TrendsENSO Historical Trends
1982-831997-98
1988-89
1998-00 2007-08
1957-581965-66
1972-731991-92
Strong El Niño winters:1957-581965-661972-731982-831991-921997-98
2015
Lowland Snowfall History 1951 to 2010
Lowland Snowfall History 1951 to 2010
Portland Top 10 Snowiest Winters:
34.0” 1968-69 El Niño24.2” 2008-09 ENSO Neutral22.4” 1955-56 La Niña20.3” 1959-60 ENSO Neutral17.4” 1992-93 ENSO Neutral16.3” 1979-80 ENSO Neutral14.7” 1970-71 La Niña13.4” 1964-65 ENSO Neutral12.0” 1994-95 El Niño10.5” 1953-54 ENSO Neutral
60% were ENSO Neutral20% were La Niña 20% were El Niño
18 snow-shutout winters:(Trace or 0 snowfall)
8 El Niño winters7 ENSO Neutral winters3 La Niña winters
44% were El Niño 39% were ENSO Neutral
17% were La Niña
Lowland Snowfall History 1951 to 2010
Lowland Snowfall History 1951 to 2010
U. S. Seasonal OutlookDecember - January - February
Warmer: ~62%Normal: 33%Cooler: 5%
Wetter: 33%Normal: 33%Drier: 33%
U. S. Seasonal OutlookDecember - January - February
Summary:Winter Activities Outlook
Summary:Winter Activities Outlook
BicyclingBicycling Drinking your favorite microbrew Drinking your favorite microbrew
Waiting in line for brunchWaiting in line for brunch Skiing Skiing
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facebook.com/NWSPortland
Twitter: @NWSPortland
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Twitter: @NWSPortland
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ENSO OutlookENSO Outlook
Updated: 8 October 2015
ENSO StatusENSO Status• El Niño conditions
present
• El-Nino likely to strengthen - Continue through 2016
- Strong event
• El Niño conditions present
• El-Nino likely to strengthen - Continue through 2016
- Strong event
Graphics from NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center
Typical El-NinoPattern